BrookingsArticle
DwayneThu, 15 Oct 2026
Addis Ababa and Asmara are edging closer to a direct conflict, which would cause further mayhem in the troubled Horn of Africa and the Red Sea basin. It is not too late to avert disaster.
A September advance by the Iran-backed Houthi movement (Ansarallah) down the Red Sea coast has expanded the Yemen conflict, drawing several outside actors into the fighting. The Houthi seizure of territory astride the key Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which nearly 10 percent of global trade passes, elevated the global significance of the Yemen conflict. The […] The post Outside Powers Respond to Instability in the Red Sea appeared first on The Soufan Center .
Talks between Morocco and the pro-independence Polisario Front over Western Sahara have hit a wall, with U.S. and UN representatives pushing for Rabat’s autonomy plan as the centrepiece of negotiations. If they are to broker a compromise, the mediators will have to slow down.
Nigeria’s economic outlook: Progress on reform and prospects for inclusive growth 22 October 2026 — 13:00 TO 14:00 BST Anonymous (not verified) 9 October 2026 Chatham House and Online Hear from Nigeria’s Minister of Finance Hon. Taiwo Oyedele about reform, growth and the path to economic inclusion. Hear from Nigeria’s Minister of Finance Hon. Taiwo Oyedele about reform, growth and the path to economic inclusion. Shortly after taking office in 2023 President Bola Tinubu introduced Nigeria’s most significant economic reforms since 2007, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the decision to float the naira. While many economists argued that subsidy reform was overdue, the pace of change contributed to rising inflation and deeper pressure on household living standards. Although these measures are now credited with improving macroeconomic stability and investor confidence - Moody’s has revised Nigeria’s outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’ citing its improved ability to withstand external shocks - the government faces growing questions about how reform can translate into more inclusive growth. This event discusses: How will Nigeria ensure the benefits of reform reach a broader share of society? How might security challenges affect Nigeria’s economic trajectory? What progress has been made since the removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira? How can the government address concerns over poverty, livelihoods and living costs? How will Nigeria maintain investor confidence amid global uncertainty? How is Nigeria preparing for the economic debate ahead of the 2027 p
In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, Alan Boswell, to discuss the fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, the risk of direct war between Ethiopia and Eritrea and what may prevent further escalation.
Navi Pillay, an outspoken supporter of international law who has served as a judge on multiple global courts and as the UN's top human rights official, won the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday. Why it matters: President Trump once again did not win the prize he has openly coveted . Pillay, among other posts, previously served on the International Criminal Court — a body Trump sanctioned and last month called " rogue " and "evil." What they're saying: " The Nobel Peace Prize for 2026 goes to a person who with exceptional courage and integrity has led the way towards a more comprehensive global legal order," the prize committee said in a social media post. "This year's laureate has been instrumental in ensuring that war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide are prosecuted." Background: Besides the ICC and the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, Pillay also served as the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and as chair of the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory. Pillay , 85 and a native of South Africa, began practicing law in the late 1960s and served on her country's high court before her international appointments. Zoom out: Pillay stands for many of the ideas and institutions Trump has condemned. Besides sanctioning the ICC, he withdrew the U.S. from the UN Human Rights Council last year. He's also made a target of South Africa and its Black government, promising asylum to white South African farmers. The AP reported that Pillay, reacting to the news, said world leaders have a "legal obligation to protect hum
وصلت المحادثات بين المغرب وجبهة البوليساريو المطالِبة بالاستقلال بشأن الصحراء الغربية إلى طريق مسدود، في وقت يدفع فيه ممثلو الولايات المتحدة والأمم المتحدة باتجاه اعتماد خطة الرباط للحكم الذاتي كركيزة أساسية للمفاوضات. إذا كان الوسطاء يرغبون بالتوصل إلى تسوية توفيقية، سيتعين عليهم إبطاء وتيرة تحركهم.
On Our Radar scans conflicts and crises around the globe every week and features some of the hotspots Crisis Group’s analysts are closely watching. Whether an under-reported trend or a headline-grabbing development, our field experts explain why it matters or what should be done.
A mutiny by Niger’s special forces in late August morphed into a coup attempt. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts explain how the unrest exposed growing discontent within the military’s ranks.
Ethiopia's new war in Tigray now runs through three disputes: the Nile, the Red Sea, and Sudan's war. The post Upstream Battle: Ethiopia’s Civil War Draws in Regional Rivalries appeared first on Geopolitical Monitor .
Today’s global democratic recession is partly rooted in a common perception that democracies have a delivery problem, with many citizens in both autocracies and democracies alike now believing that strongmen can achieve better governance outcomes. But a study of four countries in Africa reveals that democratic-leaning governments have demonstrated better governance performance than autocratic governments.
Conflicts in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa Have Become Inseparable
Somali piracy has resurged in 2026 and now forms one of the many active threats to international shipping, according to International Maritime Organization data. Piracy off the Horn of Africa in 2026 is at its highest level since 2013, with 25 incidents recorded by mid-September, according to a tally by the European Union Naval Force […] The post Second-Order Effects from Hell: A Resurgence in Somali Piracy appeared first on The Soufan Center .
A new Sahel telecom regulator is clearing the way for Russian satellites, and possibly Russian control of the data. The post Digital Sovereignty or New Dependency? Russia’s Satellite Project for the AES appeared first on Geopolitical Monitor .
As the next presidential election looms, anxiety about the Nigerian president’s physical condition is growing.
Fatima El Mansouri is the country’s first female prime minister. She’s also a privileged insider in a largely ceremonial position.
