Israel's strategy in Gaza is only keeping Hamas in power: deterred, but not replaced, with no real alternative given a chance. A different outcome calls for a different approach.
West & Central Asia · Defense · Global politics
A summer of escalation in the Black Sea has hurt Ukraine economically and is exacerbating world food security. A truce is needed—as is a broader reframing of Europe’s Ukraine strategy.
Europe · West & Central Asia · Defense · Global politics
Trump–Xi summit: Why the US and China should not underestimate each other Expert comment LToremark 22 September 2026 The US and China both face serious domestic strains. As Trump and Xi meet this week to discuss trade, AI and Taiwan, neither side should mistake the other’s weaknesses for strategic decline. A superpower summit is a big deal. As US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping meet in Washington this week, they have a lot to cover. They will try to extend a trade truce that expires in November, including China’s pause on rare earth export controls and America’s delay on chip restrictions. The leaders will also tackle Taiwan, where Beijing wants Washington to halt a $14 billion arms package, as well as China’s purchases of Iranian oil and a proposed dialogue on the national security risks of artificial intelligence (AI). In their negotiations, each side may be tempted to focus on the other’s weaknesses. But underestimating the other’s power would be unwise. China has many weaknesses – but should not be underestimated Many observers argue that China’s economic vulnerabilities will limit its international ambitions. Its growth model is faltering; its households still are not spending, so Beijing continues to push surplus production overseas. This has provoked a backlash of trade barriers from the US, EU and beyond. The property sector – once a quarter of the economy – is in its fifth year of slump, while a mountain of hidden local government debt threatens to drag down China’s growth for years to come. Meanwhile Xi’s government has become steadily more
West & Central Asia · East Asia · North America · Cybersecurity · Oil & energy · Global politics
As the U.S. stumbles in its war with Iran, we are likely to see an acceleration of its disengagement from the region.
West & Central Asia · North America · Defense · Global politics
Can Gulf Arab countries help break the deadlock over Trump’s Gaza peace plan? Expert comment LToremark 21 September 2026 Gulf Arab states increasingly view Israel as the main obstacle to progress on the peace plan – and may hope for an opening after Israel’s October elections. Almost a year after US President Donald Trump unveiled his 20-point peace plan for Gaza, which was adopted by both Israel and Hamas and paved the way for the release of all Israeli hostages, the peace process appears to have hit a wall. The two sides remain fundamentally divided over the sequencing of demilitarization and Israeli withdrawal. So far, Hamas has refused to give up its heavy weapons unless Israel halts all military operations and withdraws its forces from the parts of Gaza it currently controls – approximately 60 per cent of the strip – while Israel says it will not withdraw until Hamas disarms. Although President Trump continues to argue that the situation in Gaza is under control, his envoy Jared Kushner, who recently visited Israel, and the director-general of his Board of Peace, Nikolay Mladenov, have so far been unable to launch the second phase of the process. Related work The Iran war has left Gaza neglected In September, Kushner acknowledged that the task of demilitarizing Gaza was proving far more difficult than initially expected: ‘We are starting to understand the scope of the militarization of Gaza. It is beyond your comprehension’. In August, he had told Fox News that he expected Hamas to begin handing over its weapons in ‘ as few as 30 days ’. Meanwhile, the humanitarian sit
West & Central Asia · North America · Defense · Global politics
The UAE built its power by turning itself into a hub that binds it to every great power at once. The war with Iran has tested this strategy and is forcing a rethink in Abu Dhabi
West & Central Asia · North America · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics
Yemen's Houthi rebels are in a position to shape the next phase of the conflict between the United States and Iran if they attempt to renew their blockade of the Bab al-Mandab Strait. And no one should assume that a deal with Iran will bind what the Houthis do next.
West & Central Asia · North America · Defense
This article is the result of a collaboration with The Sunday Times. You can find their corresponding piece here. Sign up here to receive Bellingcat’s biggest investigations by email as soon as they are published. Christy Kinahan, the Irish founder of the Kinahan Organised Crime Group who is being pursued by authorities around the world […] The post Christy Kinahan’s UAE Residence Visa Cancelled appeared first on bellingcat .
Europe · West & Central Asia
It should address the shortcomings of previous crisis communication efforts and adapt to the demands of frontier AI.
East Asia · North America · Cybersecurity · Global politics
The incident raises the possibility that top secret weapons technology may have been exposed to a foreign adversary — including China.
East Asia · North America · Defense
The Zaidi government’s objective to collect weapons is constrained by regional conflict, but it can take certain measures at home.
West & Central Asia · Defense · Global politics
Lawmakers have expressed concerns for years that the move would give China access to sensitive technology.
West & Central Asia · North America · Defense · Global politics
Imbalances are a feature of the global financial system, not a bug Expert comment jon.wallace 17 September 2026 The current focus on ‘global imbalances’ is too easily used by policymakers as a smokescreen for their own domestic failings. Global imbalances are back on the international finance agenda this year, prompting a flagship G7 report and creating discord at the G20 finance minsters’ summit. Seemingly this focus on global imbalances is justified. China’s trade in goods surplus now alarms Europe’s leaders as much as it worries America’s. The US’s net liability to the world – the degree to which its overseas borrowing exceeds its overseas investments – reached an astonishing 70 per cent of US GDP in 2025. The last time global imbalances were this prominent was just ahead of 2008’s Global Financial Crisis. What a shame, then, that this focus is so misguided. Imbalances are a feature of the global financial system, not a bug. They arise from saving and investment decisions, allowing diversification and dispersing risk in the process. In truth, ‘global imbalances’ are not primarily a global phenomenon. They are simply the product of all the world’s domestic imbalances added up. And because foreign investment is more mobile than domestic investment, it is more likely to punish bad domestic policymaking by moving elsewhere. The result is to impose discipline – constraints – on political choices. There is a generous interpretation of the motives for the current focus on global imbalances. It is possible that simultaneous domestic reforms across the global economy would make f
East Asia · North America · Global politics
China is weathering the Hormuz energy crisis. But copying its model comes with risks Expert comment thilton.drupal 17 September 2026 China absorbed the shock by drawing on stockpiles and a decade of electrification. Europe needs electrification for security, but it needs to decide which parts of the system it is willing to buy from Beijing. Resources are no longer ‘king’ when it comes to energy, wrote Zhao Hongtu and Chen Wenlin in the 1 September 2026 edition of Qiushi , the Chinese Communist Party’s flagship theoretical journal. Mineral-rich economies may have some leverage, but the countries that control ‘transition-related technology, finance and rules’ will gain more influence as the world sees the rise of the ‘electrostate’, with ‘China, India and Brazil becoming the main force of new energy development.’ As a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, argue Zhao and Chen, energy security has become a priority in national policymaking: ‘clean energy is seen as an important route to security’ and ‘economies that actively embrace the energy transition may occupy more important positions in the future global energy landscape.’ It is unsurprising that a CCP journal would commend China’s efforts in building renewable energy and managing the fallout of the Iran war. But the numbers support their conclusions. The oil importer most exposed to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz – China imports 70 per cent of its oil, around half of it from the Gulf – has also been the least disrupted. Weathering the storm China’s strength in weathering the Hormuz crisis so far stands in contrast to
Europe · West & Central Asia · East Asia · Oil & energy
Turkey is neither drifting away from the West nor is it coming home. It has become an embedded outsider: a middle power that has learned to build strategic autonomy from inside the Western system rather than by leaving it.
Europe · West & Central Asia · Defense · Global politics
The Bureau of Industry and Security needs to adjust its focus and practices to maintain its position as the U.S. government’s primary champion of international technological competition.
East Asia · North America · Global politics
The Congressional Budget Office said the prolonged military campaign will hit $2 billion to $3 billion a month.
West & Central Asia · North America · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics
The Defense Department’s independent watchdog acknowledged the shortfall, a concern the administration has downplayed for months.
West & Central Asia · Defense
Xi Jinping’s attendance at the BRICS summit in New Delhi underlines the recent normalisation in Sino-Indian relations. This should encourage the EU to speed up its efforts to deepen ties with India
Asia · Global politics
The race for US midterms reveals a rapidly changing Democratic party. Europeans must understand and engage its three camps well before the party could take power
West & Central Asia · North America · Global politics
