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Chatham House14 OctArticle

After Trump’s Russian diesel deal, will Europe give Ukraine the support it needs?

After Trump’s Russian diesel deal, will Europe give Ukraine the support it needs? Expert comment jon.wallace 14 October 2026 The new row between Washington and Kyiv must not distract Europe’s leaders from the urgent matter at hand: how to sustain Ukraine’s economy through the winter. An intervention by President Donald Trump this week has once again created problems for Ukraine’s war effort. The president’s deal with Moscow, which could see millions of barrels of Russian diesel released to global markets, was condemned by Democrats and even some prominent Republicans in the US. Trump openly framed the deal as an effort to secure ‘Lower prices for Americans’ as midterm elections approach in November. It is uncertain that the deal will do much to swing votes back to the president’s party. But it has created another open dispute between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – at precisely the moment when Ukraine needs renewed, focussed support from its allies. A mounting Russian assault Recent weeks have seen a noticeable shift in Russia’s war strategy. Some had expected Putin to order a new wave of mobilization and a renewed offensive in the Donbas. Instead, he has moved to intensify Russia’s ballistic missile and drone campaign, with the aim of breaking Ukraine’s economy. There has been a marked uptick in attacks on ports, grain storage and shipping, seemingly to block Ukrainian agricultural exports. Key bridges across the River Dnipro in Kyiv have been hit. So have railways across the country. And attacks have continued on Ukraine’s energy grid (despite the ‘ energy cease

jon.wallace

Chatham House12 OctArticle

Chasing China: How should the UK and EU respond to China’s competitive threat?

Chasing China: How should the UK and EU respond to China’s competitive threat? 27 October 2026 — 18:00 TO 19:00 GMT Anonymous (not verified) 12 October 2026 Chatham House and Online Explore how the UK and EU can strengthen their industrial and technological competitiveness in response to China’s scale, speed and state-backed investment. Explore how the UK and EU can strengthen their industrial and technological competitiveness in response to China’s scale, speed and state-backed investment. China’s rapid innovation and strength in advanced manufacturing are intensifying competitive pressure on the UK and EU. The challenge is to protect sensitive technologies and supply chains, and to improve productivity, attract investment and build competitive industries of their own. This event examines the policy choices available to London and Brussels, from industrial investment and trade measures to research partnerships and economic-security tools. It also looks at how a more coordinated approach could deliver greater leverage without closing the door to beneficial engagement with China. This event discusses: How should the UK and EU respond to China’s technological and industrial prowess? Which sectors face the greatest competitive pressure from China? How can research security be strengthened while maintaining international collaboration? What balance should governments strike between openness, resilience and national security? Where should the UK and EU align on industrial policy and investment screening? What would a successful competitiveness strategy look like over the next de

Anonymous

Chatham House9 OctArticle

Europe, Brazil and beyond: Is the populist wave gathering momentum?

Europe, Brazil and beyond: Is the populist wave gathering momentum? Audio sseth.drupal@c… 9 October 2026 In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss the expected shift to the right in Spain, France, Germany and Brazil’s upcoming elections. The rightward movement in democracies in Europe and beyond shows little sign of slowing. Germany has elected its first far-right regional government in Saxony-Anhalt. In France, voter anger with Emmanuel Macron puts the Rassemblement National’s Marine Le Pen in pole position for the presidency. In Spain, Pedro Sánchez called a snap election in an attempt to mobilise the beleaguered left around Spain’s housing crisis. And Flávio Bolsonaro’s success in the first round of Brazil’s presidential elections suggests a second round of anti-woke, pro-Trump bolsonarismo is on the cards. What is driving politics to the populist right? And what does it mean for global security, stability and efforts to preserve what’s left of the rules-based order? Bronwen Maddox is joined by Grégoire Roos, director of our Europe and Russia and Eurasia Programmes; Nic Lawley, special adviser to the director of Chatham House; and Dr Christopher Sabatini, director of our Latin America Programme. About Independent Thinking Independent Thinking is a weekly international affairs podcast hosted by our director Bronwen Maddox, in conversation with leading policymakers, journalists and Chatham House experts providing insight on the latest international issues. More ways to listen: Apple Podcasts and Spotify . Explore our other Chatham House podcasts .

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Chatham House7 OctArticle

Russia’s Kaliningrad threats show the value of Baltic preparedness

Russia’s Kaliningrad threats show the value of Baltic preparedness Expert comment jon.wallace 7 October 2026 Moscow’s nuclear rhetoric should be taken seriously. But Baltic states know grey zone attacks and territorial incursions are equally serious threats. Vladimir Putin always chooses his words carefully. If Russia faced a direct attack on Kaliningrad (its enclave on the Baltic Sea), he warned on 1 October, the use of ‘all weapons in (our) country’s arsenal’ would inevitably be on the table. The statement followed an earlier Russian note to NATO, threatening nuclear escalation if the alliance were to isolate Kaliningrad. NATO, thus far, has responded with restraint. Secretary General Mark Rutte said there was no imminent Russian threat and rebuffed Moscow’s nuclear rhetoric . But this skirmishing has pushed Kaliningrad – and NATO’s Baltic borders with Russia – back into the spotlight. Kaliningrad is not just any territory for the Russians. At the Yalta and Potsdam conferences of 1945, Soviet leader Stalin asserted his claim to what was then known as Königsberg. It was, he said, necessary for Russia to have at least ‘ one ice-free port ’ at the expense of Germany. The US and UK consented, and Moscow gained a permanent military position on the Baltic Sea. After the collapse of the Soviet Union and the withdrawal of the Baltic states to become independent democracies, Kaliningrad’s geographical isolation from Russia became more apparent, creating one of the most peculiar pieces of land on the continent. Today the enclave hosts Russia’s Baltic Fleet, missile systems and comb

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Chatham House7 OctArticle

After the RAF Fairford incident, the UK should develop its homeland defence forces

After the RAF Fairford incident, the UK should develop its homeland defence forces Expert comment thilton.drupal 7 October 2026 The threat of hybrid attacks from Iran and Russia means the UK should develop a force dedicated to protecting its bases and infrastructure at home. Finland and Poland offer lessons. The US’s withdrawal of its bombers from RAF Fairford, following a suspected terror plot against the base, has brought attention to how the UK defends its homeland military bases and other critical infrastructure. The UK government has insisted RAF Fairford is safe following the arrest of five men near the base on 27 September. President Donald Trump said the US withdrew its bombers from the base because of an unspecified ‘threat’ to the base. The investigation into the incident is still ongoing. Prime Minister Andy Burnham said that there are ‘strong indications that Iran played a part,’ which Iran’s embassy in London has rejected. In March, the UK approved a US request to use RAF Fairford for what it described as defensive strikes on Iran. Tehran responded that any base used for ‘aggression against Iranian territory’ would be a ‘legitimate target’ for its forces. Bases such as Fairford have their own protection forces that guard the perimeter. But incidents like this highlight the need for the UK to improve its wider homeland defence forces in the face of sustained pressure from hostile actors such as Iran and Russia. While the UK has specialist counter-terrorism units that can respond to incidents, and its armed forces and reserves can be deployed domestically to aid

thilton.drupal

Chatham House6 OctArticle

Sovereignty is not solitude: Canada’s strategy for democratic technology leadership

Sovereignty is not solitude: Canada’s strategy for democratic technology leadership 13 October 2026 — 12:00 TO 13:00 BST Anonymous (not verified) 6 October 2026 Chatham House and Online Hear from Canada’s Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Innovation, Evan Solomon, on how trust, opportunity and sovereign control are shaping Canada’s approach to artificial intelligence, economic growth and international partnership. Hear from Canada’s Minister of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Innovation, Evan Solomon, on how trust, opportunity and sovereign control are shaping Canada’s approach to artificial intelligence, economic growth and international partnership. This event will explore how Canada is translating its AI strengths into greater productivity, prosperity and better public services, and how deeper cooperation with partners such as the UK can strengthen AI safety, resilience and shared economic opportunity. This event discusses: What does sovereign control mean in an interconnected AI economy? And why does sovereignty not mean isolation? What are Canada’s strengths as AI transforms economies, public services and national security? How can countries build trust in AI while accelerating innovation and adoption? How can investment in talent, literacy, research and key industries create new economic opportunities and better public services? How can Canada and the UK work together work together to strengthen AI safety, resilience and democratic technology leadership?

Anonymous

Chatham House5 OctArticle

Sánchez’s gamble: This ‘all-in’ election will have international impact

Sánchez’s gamble: This ‘all-in’ election will have international impact Expert comment jon.wallace 5 October 2026 Announcing the election, Sánchez set himself in opposition to President Trump and Javier Milei as well as Spain’s populist right. Much will depend on the prime minister’s ability to rally a fragmented left. The decision by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to call a snap election is a risky move, but he will have felt he had little choice. His decision fires the starting gun on a year of vital and polarized elections across Europe. The announcement is not entirely unexpected. Spain was required to hold an election by August 2027 anyway. And Sánchez’s multiparty coalition has looked fragile since it formed in July 2023: it has not passed a full budget since. In January, the government approved a decree that regularized the status of 500,000 undocumented migrants and asylum seekers – a move unusual among EU countries generally committed to tightening migration restrictions . In July, the Spanish enclave of Ceuta was overwhelmed by a surge of tens of thousands of migrants, leading to criticism of government policy from within Spain and abroad, including US President Donald Trump. This month, a new issue has arisen, as protests grow over housing affordability. The protests prompted the government to introduce emergency legislation, only to see the bill rejected by Spain’s Parliament late last week. This gave Sánchez his opening to call a general election, arguing that ‘to do more, we need to renew and broaden the support of the people’. What are Sánchez’s chances? Sánche

jon.wallace

Chatham House4 OctArticle

Members' Book Club: The history of Chatham House

Members' Book Club: The history of Chatham House 12 November 2026 — 17:30 TO 18:30 GMT Anonymous (not verified) 4 October 2026 Chatham House and Online Join us for the second in the series of our new members’ exclusive Chatham House Book Club, on ‘Chatham House: The First Hundred Years’. Marking the publication of a new history of the Institute, this event explores why Chatham House was founded, how its work evolved and what its first century reveals about the future of independent international debate. Hear from editors, contributors, and current Chatham House staff on the history of the organisation that began life as the British Institute of International Affairs in 1920, and within a few short years had acquired a Royal Charter, a Rule and the magnificent London headquarters by which it would become known worldwide - Chatham House. This members’ exclusive Book Club event reflects on the Institute’s first century. Their accounts trace how research and in-person meetings responded to global political changes over decades. That history provides a lens on the pressures facing democratic societies and international cooperation today. This event discusses Why was the Institute founded in 1920 and what challenges did it address? How has Chatham House responded to major geopolitical shifts? Which achievements, tensions and personalities shaped its development? What does the book reveal about the Chatham House Rule and convening role? What does the Institute’s history suggest about its future relevance and impact? The Chatham House Book Club is a new space for members to explore

Anonymous

Chatham House24 SeptArticle

Denmark’s Greenland deal with Trump is a victory for diplomacy over bullying

Denmark’s Greenland deal with Trump is a victory for diplomacy over bullying Expert comment jon.wallace 24 September 2026 Denmark used its soft power to rally support and took the dispute out of the limelight – addressing underlying US interests instead of President Trump’s unacceptable public position. This week, Denmark has extricated itself from a period of coercive US diplomacy over Greenland. The agreement announced on 22 September elegantly resolves the dispute over the territory, without forcing Denmark or the government of Greenland to give up very much. Even before the dispute, Denmark had indicated it would be content to increase the number of US bases in Greenland and enhance US access to them. These measures were already possible under an existing 1951 agreement. The new agreement adds an undertaking by Denmark and Greenland to refuse major investments from non-members of the EU or NATO that would grant them a foothold in strategic Arctic areas. Again, on this point, Washington was pushing on an open door. The only meaningful change concerns the mechanism to ensure that this arrangement will be permanent. The 1951 agreement, amended in 2004, also does not expire. But the new text adds that Greenland will remain part of NATO and continue to comply with the agreement, should it opt for independence. An independent Greenland might have been willing to retain the US bases and related agreements anyway. After all, it would need to rely on US defence support and a NATO security guarantee. But expressly making these points in an agreement co-signed by Greenland overcam

jon.wallace

Chatham House21 SeptArticle

Chatham House fellow gives evidence at UK parliament committee on global AI governance and risks

Chatham House fellow gives evidence at UK parliament committee on global AI governance and risks News release thilton.drupal 21 September 2026 Senior Research Fellow Isabella Wilkinson spoke to the House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee at a time when many are calling for greater regulation of AI in the light of emerging risks. Isabella Wilkinson, Senior Research Fellow with Chatham House’s Digital Society Programme, gave evidence on the global governance of AI to the UK House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee on 16 September. Wilkinson outlined the main types of risk from AI: malicious risks, loss-of-control risks and systemic risks. Addressing the governance challenge posed by these risks, she said: ‘We’re facing a governance challenge because all of these risks are interlinked, so we have to be very strategic about how we design governance at multiple different levels. This is a multilateral challenge.’ Wilkinson said that interlinked governance challenges, including a dearth of trusted information about AI and ‘the lack of a crisis toolbox’ to deploy in the event of a crisis, had led to ‘quite a severe state of gridlock in multilateral AI governance.’ The committee was meeting in a week in which debates over the risks associated with AI featured prominently in public debate, following calls by tech leaders to slow the pace of the technology’s development. ‘We are in a moment of intense crisis and turbulence in multilateral AI governance. But as we’ve learned [from other areas of governance] … these conditions create a window of

thilton.drupal

Chatham House18 SeptArticle

The Director's Annual Lecture 2027

The Director's Annual Lecture 2027 12 January 2027 — 18:00 TO 19:00 GMT Anonymous (not verified) 18 September 2026 Chatham House and Online Join Chatham House Director and Chief Executive Bronwen Maddox for the 2027 Director’s Annual Lecture. Join Chatham House Director and Chief Executive Bronwen Maddox for the 2027 Director’s Annual Lecture. Bronwen Maddox, Director and Chief Executive at Chatham House, delivers her annual lecture.

Anonymous

Chatham House18 SeptArticle

‘Coupling without fusion’: Canada and Europe test a new kind of alliance

‘Coupling without fusion’: Canada and Europe test a new kind of alliance Expert comment jon.wallace 18 September 2026 The deeper relationship proposed by Carney and von der Leyen could send a powerful geopolitical message. But can agreement be reached without antagonizing EU candidate countries? There is something rather extraordinary about the geopolitical times we live in. They are making what seemed impossible yesterday possible today, and what once sounded laughable increasingly credible. This week’s proposals for closer integration between Canada and the EU undoubtedly belongs to that category. On 16 September, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen proposed making Canada the EU’s first ‘associate member’. The next day, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney used his address to the European Parliament to set out an unusually ambitious programme of economic and strategic integration. Canada and Europe, he argued , should cooperate across critical minerals, defence production, artificial intelligence and computing, energy, space and payments. They should move towards ‘seamless’ digital trade in non-agricultural goods and services. And they should expand opportunities for young Canadians and Europeans to live, work and study across the Atlantic. Canada also eyes access to the EU’s Horizon research programme. If the concept of associate membership is yet to be properly defined – starting with meaningful legal substance – Carney’s address gave it discernible geopolitical purpose. His argument rests on a lesson he has repeated since his Davos speech in January 2026:

jon.wallace

Chatham House17 SeptArticle

China is weathering the Hormuz energy crisis. But copying its model comes with risks

China is weathering the Hormuz energy crisis. But copying its model comes with risks Expert comment thilton.drupal 17 September 2026 China absorbed the shock by drawing on stockpiles and a decade of electrification. Europe needs electrification for security, but it needs to decide which parts of the system it is willing to buy from Beijing. Resources are no longer ‘king’ when it comes to energy, wrote Zhao Hongtu and Chen Wenlin in the 1 September 2026 edition of Qiushi , the Chinese Communist Party’s flagship theoretical journal. Mineral-rich economies may have some leverage, but the countries that control ‘transition-related technology, finance and rules’ will gain more influence as the world sees the rise of the ‘electrostate’, with ‘China, India and Brazil becoming the main force of new energy development.’ As a result of the US-Israeli war on Iran, argue Zhao and Chen, energy security has become a priority in national policymaking: ‘clean energy is seen as an important route to security’ and ‘economies that actively embrace the energy transition may occupy more important positions in the future global energy landscape.’ It is unsurprising that a CCP journal would commend China’s efforts in building renewable energy and managing the fallout of the Iran war. But the numbers support their conclusions. The oil importer most exposed to the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz – China imports 70 per cent of its oil, around half of it from the Gulf – has also been the least disrupted. Weathering the storm China’s strength in weathering the Hormuz crisis so far stands in contrast to

thilton.drupal

Chatham House16 SeptArticle

The European agenda and UK–EU relations: a French perspective on a changing world

The European agenda and UK–EU relations: a French perspective on a changing world 24 September 2026 — 11:30 TO 12:30 BST Anonymous (not verified) 16 September 2026 Chatham House and Online How France views the current state of European affairs and the next phase of cooperation between the EU and the UK under the new Burnham government. How France views the next phase of cooperation between the EU and the UK under the new Burnham government As part of the UK in the World Programme’s new UK–EU series, join France’s Minister for Europe, Benjamin Haddad to examine the EU agenda and the future of UK–EU relations. The discussion will explore how Europe can strengthen cooperation, security and competitiveness in a changing geopolitical environment. This event will discuss: What is France’s perspective on the European agenda? How does the EU-UK relation fit into that agenda? What opportunities exist to deepen UK–EU cooperation a decade after Brexit? How does France view the future of the relationship between London and Brussels What major political, economic and security challenges remain? How can the UK and EU work more closely on European security and defence? What role can France and the UK play in strengthening Europe’s competitiveness and influence? What outcomes are realistic in the near term for UK–EU relations?

Anonymous

Chatham House15 SeptArticle

Putin is far from isolated. Europe must play him at the long game

Putin is far from isolated. Europe must play him at the long game Expert comment jon.wallace 15 September 2026 The SCO and BRICS summits indicate Russia retains sufficient value to China, India and other non-Western powers to pursue its war objectives. Europe needs to adjust to that reality. The past fortnight has seen President Vladimir Putin undertake plenty of summit diplomacy. Throughout he has shown no sign he is open to compromise on Russia’s war aims in Ukraine. On the contrary, escalation has accelerated. Europe seems inclined to read this increased aggression as a sign of desperation on Moscow’s part. But that is a miscalculation. In reality, the Kremlin’s strategy of blended diplomatic impassivity and calibrated escalation may be stronger than it looks. No backing down US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner spent more than three hours with Putin in Moscow on 5 September, discussing how to end the war. The Kremlin hailed the discussions as ‘highly useful’ but gave no indication that it was ready to relax its demands: Ukrainian territorial concessions and restrictions on Kyiv’s future security alignment. Days later, an offer by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to meet Putin at December’s G20 summit in Miami was rebuffed. Meanwhile, Russian attacks have intensified. On 13 September, a Russian drone struck railway infrastructure near Yahodyn, shortly after a train carrying Boris Johnson, former CIA director David Petraeus and others had passed through the area. Whether they were deliberately targeted remains unknown. What is certain is that the strike was part of Russ

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