Without a ceasefire with Ukraine on attacking each other’s energy infrastructure—to which the Kremlin is unlikely to agree—the diesel agreement between Putin and Trump is largely for show, rather than representing a genuine increase in the volumes of Russian diesel on the global market.
Europe · North America · Oil & energy · Global politics
Ahead of a tough winter for Ukraine, Donald Trump’s swing back toward Russia bodes ill. But instead of panicking, Kyiv’s European allies are focusing on action.
Europe · North America · Global politics
Data: RealClearPolitics , American Presidency Project ; Note: Nebraska's Senate race is between a Republican and an independent; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Move over Wisconsin and Arizona. With Democrats making Republicans sweat in a host of red-state Senate races , a new batch of swing states may be emerging. Why it matters: Some of the closest Senate races are in Nebraska, Ohio, Texas, Iowa and even Kansas. Sure, this could be a blip — or a reminder that it's a 50-50 moody nation, even in a bunch of red states. The conditions that helped Barack Obama carry conservative states like Indiana and North Carolina in 2008 — an unpopular war, a bruising economy, an electorate hungry for change — could resonate again in 2028. State of play: Democratic and Republican Senate candidates are running margin-of-error races in red states that not long ago were thought to be forbidding, or even a wasted effort, to many Democrats. The Senate races in Kansas and Ohio are tied. So is Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn is trying to knock off Sen. Pete Ricketts. Democrat James Talarico has consistently led polls in Texas, though that race appears to be tightening as money pours into the state on behalf of Republican Ken Paxton. Alaska is also a toss-up. President Trump won all these states by double digits in 2024. Zoom in: Republican operatives told Axios they're far from convinced that what's happening now will create a new slate of swing states in the 2028 race for the White House. They see the current campaign as more of a one-off — a combination of dismay with Trump, high prices and unin
North America · Global politics
On January 1, 2027, the tenth Secretary-General of the United Nations (UN) will take the oath of office. António Guterres will be stepping down after a ten-year term, leaving the 81-year-old institution at a time when its role is being re-evaluated both from within and without. The process for selecting his successor is now in […] The post The UN Faces its Future: The Next Secretary-General appeared first on The Soufan Center .
Global politics
Europe · East Asia · South & Central America · Oil & energy · Global politics
East Asia · North America · Global politics
Addis Ababa and Asmara are edging closer to a direct conflict, which would cause further mayhem in the troubled Horn of Africa and the Red Sea basin. It is not too late to avert disaster.
East Africa · Defense · Global politics
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the U.K. House of Commons Monday that Iran's Revolutionary Guard was "almost certainly" behind the suspected plot to attack the RAF Fairford base where U.S. bombers were stationed. Why it matters: This was the first time the U.K. officially blamed Iran for the alleged planned attack . What he's saying: "I can confirm our assessment that it is highly likely to have been coordinated in Iran, almost certainly directed by the IRGC. We will not tolerate these threats on our soil," Burnham said. Driving the news: 10 days ago, the U.S. evacuated a dozen B-1 strategic bombers from RAF Fairford in response to intelligence indicating an Iranian drone attack. It would have been an unprecedented and brazen move by Iran against a U.S. base in Europe — with the potential to dramatically escalate the war in the Middle East. The decision to move the bombers came several days after British security forces arrested several dual British-Iranian citizens suspected of planning an attack on the base. It was unclear whether the people who were arrested were connected to the alleged planned drone attack or if they were planning a different attack. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel provided the U.K. with intelligence that pointed to a threat of an Iranian attack. State of play: British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband said Monday that the Iranian ambassador was summoned to the foreign office in London to denounce the alleged Iranian plot. The other side: The Iranian ambassador to the UK, Seyed Ali Mousavi, told IRNA that Iran "categorically
Europe · West & Central Asia · Defense · Global politics
Republicans already saddled with Trump's unpopular policies in the midterms now face another awkward choice: whether to back his diesel deal with a dictator many of them despise. Why it matters: The agreement President Trump struck with Russian President Vladimir Putin Friday is designed to ease the cost of living for U.S. consumers. But Republicans who pleaded for help with fuel prices now face a fresh dispute over Russia, with energy analysts questioning whether the deal will deliver the relief Trump is promising. The big picture: With three weeks until Election Day, Republicans are trying to answer voter anger while keeping up with a president whose proposed fixes keep becoming political liabilities of their own. Trump's decision to lock arms with Putin adds another complication. Driving the news: Weeks after signing a sweeping Russia sanctions law, Trump announced Friday that Russia would supply diesel to U.S. and global markets. The next day, Trump blamed Ukraine for soaring diesel prices and called for President Volodymyr Zelensky to be replaced, even as Russia continued attacking Ukrainian cities. Republicans who just supported squeezing Moscow have three options in the final sprint for control of Congress: defend Trump's reversal, break with him or stay quiet. Zoom out: The diesel deal packs some of the GOP's biggest liabilities into one decision: the Iran war's economic fallout, the party's split over Russia and a president determined to make the election about himself. The deal also reverses Trump's own pressure campaign. Last year, he slapped an extra 25% tariff
Europe · North America · Oil & energy · Global politics
The Mecca Pact moves to collective defense, but its members will not fight the Houthis for each other. The post Houthi Strikes on Riyadh Test the Mecca Pact | Geopolitics Weekly appeared first on Geopolitical Monitor .
West & Central Asia · Defense · Global politics
Tuesday, 20 October 2026 10am Washington, DC | 4pm Brussels | 5pm Tel Aviv Please register here if you would like to attend this online event.
West & Central Asia · Global politics
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is pleased to announce a transformative $15 million gift from the Blavatnik Family Foundation to strengthen and expand the Blavatnik Internship Program. Including both endowment and current-use support, this generous commitment more than doubles the foundation’s original investment in the program and builds on its remarkable success. “We hope […]
North America · Global politics
Chasing China: How should the UK and EU respond to China’s competitive threat? 27 October 2026 — 18:00 TO 19:00 GMT Anonymous (not verified) 12 October 2026 Chatham House and Online Explore how the UK and EU can strengthen their industrial and technological competitiveness in response to China’s scale, speed and state-backed investment. Explore how the UK and EU can strengthen their industrial and technological competitiveness in response to China’s scale, speed and state-backed investment. China’s rapid innovation and strength in advanced manufacturing are intensifying competitive pressure on the UK and EU. The challenge is to protect sensitive technologies and supply chains, and to improve productivity, attract investment and build competitive industries of their own. This event examines the policy choices available to London and Brussels, from industrial investment and trade measures to research partnerships and economic-security tools. It also looks at how a more coordinated approach could deliver greater leverage without closing the door to beneficial engagement with China. This event discusses: How should the UK and EU respond to China’s technological and industrial prowess? Which sectors face the greatest competitive pressure from China? How can research security be strengthened while maintaining international collaboration? What balance should governments strike between openness, resilience and national security? Where should the UK and EU align on industrial policy and investment screening? What would a successful competitiveness strategy look like over the next de
Europe · East Asia · Global politics
Israel's election: What will it mean for Israeli democracy and society? 20 October 2026 — 14:00 TO 15:00 BST Anonymous (not verified) 12 October 2026 Online Ahead of a key election in Israel on the 27th October, experts assess the forces shaping the campaign and the domestic implications for both Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Ahead of a key election in Israel on the 27th October, experts assess the forces shaping the campaign and the domestic implications for both Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Since the formation of Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government, Israel’s politics, society and economy have undergone significant change. The question of national security has dominated the political agenda since the 7 October 2023 attacks by Hamas and Israel’s military offensive on Gaza. However, key domestic issues including accountability, the future of democratic institutions and the role of religion in the state are also on the ballot. The result could have lasting implications for Israel’s political system and broader social cohesion. This event discusses: What issues are shaping Israel’s election campaign? To what extent is the future of Israeli democracy on the ballot? What political scenarios could emerge after the vote? How could the result affect Israel’s economy and social cohesion? To what extent is the question of the conflict with Palestine being addressed by political candidates?
West & Central Asia · Defense · Global politics
A September advance by the Iran-backed Houthi movement (Ansarallah) down the Red Sea coast has expanded the Yemen conflict, drawing several outside actors into the fighting. The Houthi seizure of territory astride the key Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which nearly 10 percent of global trade passes, elevated the global significance of the Yemen conflict. The […] The post Outside Powers Respond to Instability in the Red Sea appeared first on The Soufan Center .
East Africa · West & Central Asia · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics
President Trump's announcement Sunday about an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine referred to a potential deal that includes each side stopping attacks on oil refineries — and he expects Volodymyr Zelensky to abide by it, a White House official said. The official said if attacks on oil refineries cease, a deal to stop hitting power plants and energy grids could come next. Why it matters: Trump appears to be singlehandedly trying to will a partial ceasefire into existence. But for now Russia hasn't accepted any kind of ceasefire — and Ukraine wants one that forbids attacks on power plants. Reality check: The "refinery for refinery" proposal, as the official dubbed it, is lopsided. A Ukrainian official told Axios that the country has a single oil refinery which the Russians have attacked multiple times and isn't fully functional. Russia, by contrast, has a vast network of refineries. "We import diesel and gas. What we need is for the Russians to stop attacking our electricity grid," the Ukrainian official said. "The Russians are thinking about" it, the White House official said. "We will know soon if they are ready." Case in point: Hours after Trump's announcement, Russia conducted strikes on power plants in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian media. What he said: Trump's Truth Social post sounded at first like a major breakthrough. "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" he wrote. It appears much more tenuous than that. Zelensky said the announced ceasefire "was news for me
Europe · North America · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics
