A September advance by the Iran-backed Houthi movement (Ansarallah) down the Red Sea coast has expanded the Yemen conflict, drawing several outside actors into the fighting. The Houthi seizure of territory astride the key Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which nearly 10 percent of global trade passes, elevated the global significance of the Yemen conflict. The […] The post Outside Powers Respond to Instability in the Red Sea appeared first on The Soufan Center .
East Africa · West & Central Asia · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics
President Trump's announcement Sunday about an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine referred to a potential deal that includes each side stopping attacks on oil refineries — and he expects Volodymyr Zelensky to abide by it, a White House official said. The official said if attacks on oil refineries cease, a deal to stop hitting power plants and energy grids could come next. Why it matters: Trump appears to be singlehandedly trying to will a partial ceasefire into existence. But for now Russia hasn't accepted any kind of ceasefire — and Ukraine wants one that forbids attacks on power plants. Reality check: The "refinery for refinery" proposal, as the official dubbed it, is lopsided. A Ukrainian official told Axios that the country has a single oil refinery which the Russians have attacked multiple times and isn't fully functional. Russia, by contrast, has a vast network of refineries. "We import diesel and gas. What we need is for the Russians to stop attacking our electricity grid," the Ukrainian official said. "The Russians are thinking about" it, the White House official said. "We will know soon if they are ready." Case in point: Hours after Trump's announcement, Russia conducted strikes on power plants in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian media. What he said: Trump's Truth Social post sounded at first like a major breakthrough. "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" he wrote. It appears much more tenuous than that. Zelensky said the announced ceasefire "was news for me
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President Trump claimed Sunday that Russia and Ukraine agreed to an " energy ceasefire " and will halt attacks on each other's energy facilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tells Axios the announcement "was news for me. But if Russians agree to an energy ceasefire, Ukraine will agree." Why it matters: An " energy ceasefire" would be a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough ahead of the winter. It remains unclear if Russia indeed agreed to stop the strikes. Trump made a similar announcement last month, but neither party confirmed that there was a deal. Both Russia and Ukraine continued attacking energy infrastructure. What they're saying: "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" Trump wrote on Truth Social. In a short interview after Trump's announcement, Zelensky told Axios, "If President Trump negotiated it with Putin, please tell us when the ceasefire begins. We are ready, and we will accept it." Catch up quick: The announcement follows days of escalating tensions between Trump and Zelensky over Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries. On Friday, Trump announced a deal to ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports in an effort to lower soaring fuel prices, infuriating Ukraine. On Saturday, Trump called for Ukraine to replace Zelensky , accusing him of refusing opportunities to end the war. Zelensky responded Sunday on ABC's "This Week," saying Ukraine would hold elections if Russia agreed to a 60-day ceasefire. He also said Ukraine was prepared to stop attacking Russian
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Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) vowed Saturday to force a House vote to block Russian oil purchases, challenging President Trump's diesel deal with President Vladimir Putin. Why it matters: Trump has touted the deal as a way to lower fuel prices, but it could also provide revenue for Russia's war in Ukraine. Driving the news: Fitzpatrick, co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, said he would introduce the "Ronald Reagan Peace Through Strength Act" and force a vote through a discharge petition. "It will be forced to the Floor via discharge and it will pass overwhelmingly," Fitzpatrick wrote on X . Retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) tells Axios he has "already agreed" to sign the petition. Catch up quick: Trump said Friday Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel to U.S. and global markets, with more shipments to follow. Energy analysts are skeptical the additional diesel will meaningfully lower prices. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the deal "not fair and not honest," telling Axios it amounted to a gift to Putin. Trump called Saturday for Ukraine to replace Zelensky with a leader willing to reach a deal with Russia. The White House has not yet responded to Axios' request for comment about Fitzpatrick's bill. The big picture: Fitzpatrick is the latest Republican lawmaker to break with Trump in a high-profile way, as the party fights to keep control of Congress amid mounting disapproval of the president. Zoom out: Fitzpatrick is turning to a tactic lawmakers have increasingly used to bypass Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.): a discharge pet
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President Trump called Saturday for Ukraine to replace President Volodymyr Zelensky with someone willing to make a deal with Russia to end the war. Why it matters: Trump's attack on Zelensky came after the Ukrainian president criticized his diesel deal with Russia and signals the most serious crisis between the two leaders since their February 2025 meeting exploded in front of cameras. Driving the news: Trump announced Friday he had reached a deal with Russia to lift sanctions to allow Russian diesel exports to the U.S. and the global energy market. Zelensky, who was surprised by the deal made behind Ukraine's back, attacked the move and told Axios it was "not fair and not honest" and was a "sign of weakness" by Trump and a "birthday gift" to Putin. A U.S. official told Axios later that Trump struck the diesel fuel deal after Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop attacking Russian oil refineries. What he is saying: Trump said Zelensky could have reached a deal with Russia many times "but chooses not to." "I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal," Trump told reporters Saturday. "… And I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president." He said he asked Zelensky to stop attacking Russian oil refineries and claimed Zelensky's actions harmed American farmers. "He better damn well stop," Trump said.
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Poll after poll spells trouble for GOP candidates — in purple states and deep-red ones alike — but while Democrats see a blue wave coming, some Republicans see a polling mirage. Why it matters: Pollsters worry they're flying partly blind. Even a modest polling error could mean the difference between Republicans retaining control of Congress and President Trump facing Democratic majorities in both chambers. The big picture: Polling Trump voters has long been notoriously difficult. The polls underestimated Trump's support in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Midterm polling has been more accurate, though some still underestimated Republican support in 2022, notes Scott Keeter, senior survey adviser at Pew Research Center. Catch up quick: With less than a month until the midterms, the polls paint a bleak picture for Republicans. The House: Democrats lead Republicans 49.8%-41.9% in the RealClearPolling generic congressional ballot average. Cook Political Report projects Democrats will gain nine to 19 seats, enough to win a narrow majority. The Senate: Cook now sees a potential Democratic net gain of two to six seats. Democrats need four to take control, and Cook just moved the Kansas Senate race into its toss-up column. Trump: The president's approval rating stands at 37.6% in Cook's polling tracker . A recent Economist/YouGov poll found 35% approving and 60% disapproving of his performance. State of play: Research suggests Republicans have become somewhat less likely than Democrats to participate in telephone surveys, and response rates overall have plummeted since the late 1990s, per Pew
President Trump lashed out late Friday night after he once again did not win the Nobel Peace Prize he has openly coveted . Why it matters: The award is Trump's white whale, an honor he talks about frequently and believes he deserves. This year's prize went instead to a former judge of a court Trump has sanctioned and called "rogue" and "evil." Navi Pillay, the winner, reacted to the award by saying world leaders have a "legal obligation to protect human rights and refrain from war," according to the AP . What he's saying: " I know nothing about this woman, and neither does anyone else! In fact, to the best of my knowledge, no one ever heard of her other than the fact that she, very obviously, hates Israel. I don't know what the woman has done," Trump said in a Truth Social post of nearly 600 words that went up just before midnight on Friday. "I settled 8 Wars, with letters being sent from every President and Prime Minister from the countries that I helped to the Norwegian Nobel Committee, and I'm about to settle, or win, two more, Iran and, Russia/Ukraine," Trump wrote. "They're both happening at breakneck speed but, forget them, it's the 8 that I've already settled, any one of which, in particular, Pakistan and India, would be far more than necessary to win the Nobel Prize. In actuality, I should have won 8 Nobel Peace Prizes, not just 1." Between the lines: Pillay, this year's winner, is a former judge of the International Criminal Court and also the former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. Nobel officials said she received the honor "for her efforts to promote peace
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President Trump decided to make a diesel fuel deal with Russia after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, a U.S. official with direct knowledge told Axios. Why it matters: Trump's deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin sparked a new crisis with Ukraine and threatens to derail a new push by the Trump administration for a deal to end the war. "Zelensky is misreading the room. By continuing to hit refineries, he is eroding the good will that he has built with Trump over the last six months," the U.S. official said. Zelensky, in an interview with Axios after the announcement, said he was blindsided by the deal, which he called "not fair and not honest" and an unwarranted gift to Putin. Driving the news: Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries in recent months were highly effective and caused an energy crisis in Russia. Russia imposed a ban on diesel exports in response, which added more pressure to global diesel markets under strain from the war in Iran. Zelensky told Trump and his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner that he was prepared to stop attacking Russian oil refineries if the Russians halted attacks on Ukrainian power plants. The U.S. official said Trump wanted Ukraine to unilaterally stop attacking Russian refineries because the strikes were contributing to high gas prices in America. Trump didn't see the attacks on refineries as equivalent to Russian strikes on Ukraine's power grid, the U.S. official said. Inside the room: During eight hours of talks in Miami on Friday, Witkoff
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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios in a phone interview on Friday that President Trump's decision to unilaterally lift sanctions on Russia and allow it to export diesel was "not fair and not honest." "You know, it looks like a happy birthday present for Putin. It looks absolutely terrible," Zelensky said in frustration, referring to the Russian president's birthday earlier this week. Why it matters: Trump's announcement, which came after a call with Putin, shocked Ukraine and many European governments and created a new crisis between the U.S. and its Western allies. During the 15-minute interview, Zelensky sounded exasperated and dismayed and even expressed a sense of betrayal by the news of the diesel deal. Trump was asked several times by reporters on Friday about Zelensky's criticism but declined to comment and said he was happy about the deal with Putin. Driving the news: Trump announced the deal with Putin as his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were meeting in Miami with the Ukrainian negotiating team along with senior diplomats from Germany, France, the U.K., the EU and NATO to discuss new U.S. ideas for ending the war. Zelensky said he spoke several days ago with Witkoff about the need to continue efforts to reach a diplomatic breakthrough before winter and the midterm elections. "Steve proposed to meet in Florida. And of course I accepted to go there and speak about the possibilities of negotiations. The Americans said they have some ideas and we agreed to come to discuss," Zelensky said. At no point during his talks with Witkoff and Kushner di
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Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is going to have his hands full next Congress, even without a threat to his leadership or a primary challenge from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-N.Y.). Why it matters: Schumer (D-N.Y.) will have to grapple with the presidential ambitions of up to eight of his senators who may care more about winning the White House than following their leader. Roughly one in six Democratic senators eyeing the campaign trail would add a degree of difficulty to a job that rarely lacks challenges, as former President Obama acknowledged this week. "Being the head of the Democratic Party is a pain in the butt, because you've got people from every walk of life," Obama said of Schumer at a fundraiser Wednesday. Flashback: This year's ICE funding fights gave Schumer a taste of how presidential ambitions can complicate governing. Potential 2028 contenders competed to take the toughest stance against ICE funding, even at the risk of a government shutdown. Zoom in: The tension between individual ambition and party unity could surface early in Schumer's tenure if he becomes majority leader. Democrats are promising to lower costs and govern responsibly, while insisting they'll challenge and investigate the Trump administration at every turn. Schumer and President Trump have a long, complicated relationship — and each other's cell numbers. Between the lines: Democrats could control majorities in both chambers, giving them immense power against Trump. But majority power is dependent on members being present and unified. Presidential contenders have incentives to spe
President Trump announced Friday that he's reached a deal with Russia to increase the supply of diesel to the U.S. and global markets — angering Ukraine, which called it a gift to Vladimir Putin in the midst of their war. Why it matters: The announcement, which includes a waiver on some U.S. energy sanctions against Russia, took place as Ukrainian and European diplomats arrived in Miami for talks on ending the war with Russia. What he's saying: "I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter," Trump wrote on Truth Social. Trump added that Russia will deliver," within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel." Combine with oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump wrote, "Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!" "Today, at President Trump's direction, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is immediately issuing a temporary general license to allow the supply of Russian diesel to the global market," the Treasury Department said in a statement. Friction point: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded angrily to Trump's announcement, writing on X that any sanctions relief for Russia outside of a "lasting de-escalation agreement ... is an obvious weakness." "Gifts to Putin will not bring peace or any benefit to the civil
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Talks between Morocco and the pro-independence Polisario Front over Western Sahara have hit a wall, with U.S. and UN representatives pushing for Rabat’s autonomy plan as the centrepiece of negotiations. If they are to broker a compromise, the mediators will have to slow down.
The Department of Homeland Security is coming under fire for publicly attacking Democratic congressional candidate Janelle Stelson less than a month before the midterm election . Why it matters: The Stelson campaign is threatening a lawsuit over the allegations, while a watchdog group is seeking an investigation into whether an ICE official violated restrictions on partisan political activity by federal employees. "We are likely to take legal action to combat the blatant lies and coordinated misinformation campaign," Stelson campaign manager Alma Baker said in a statement to Axios. The campaign said Friday it has sent out cease and desist letters, viewed by Axios, to several news outlets that reported DHS's claims as fact. The race between Stelson and Republican Rep. Scott Perry in Pennsylvania's 10th district is one of the most competitive and expensive House elections in the country, attracting more than $26 million in spending, according to AdImpact. Driving the news: DHS published a press release on Wednesday announcing the arrest of what it said was an "illegal alien from Nigeria who exposed himself in public while working for congressional campaign in Pennsylvania." The migrant, Chimaobim Adedayo Igbojekwe, was arrested by ICE on Oct. 1 after pleading guilty to disorderly conduct last month, according to the press release. The release included a statement from ICE Deputy Director Charles Wall saying: "It's unbelievable that Janelle Stelson would employ an illegal alien to work on a Congressional campaign, let alone a pervert who exposed himself in public." Stelson her
Nigeria’s economic outlook: Progress on reform and prospects for inclusive growth 22 October 2026 — 13:00 TO 14:00 BST Anonymous (not verified) 9 October 2026 Chatham House and Online Hear from Nigeria’s Minister of Finance Hon. Taiwo Oyedele about reform, growth and the path to economic inclusion. Hear from Nigeria’s Minister of Finance Hon. Taiwo Oyedele about reform, growth and the path to economic inclusion. Shortly after taking office in 2023 President Bola Tinubu introduced Nigeria’s most significant economic reforms since 2007, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the decision to float the naira. While many economists argued that subsidy reform was overdue, the pace of change contributed to rising inflation and deeper pressure on household living standards. Although these measures are now credited with improving macroeconomic stability and investor confidence - Moody’s has revised Nigeria’s outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’ citing its improved ability to withstand external shocks - the government faces growing questions about how reform can translate into more inclusive growth. This event discusses: How will Nigeria ensure the benefits of reform reach a broader share of society? How might security challenges affect Nigeria’s economic trajectory? What progress has been made since the removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira? How can the government address concerns over poverty, livelihoods and living costs? How will Nigeria maintain investor confidence amid global uncertainty? How is Nigeria preparing for the economic debate ahead of the 2027 p
In this episode of Hold Your Fire! , Richard is joined by Crisis Group’s Horn of Africa director, Alan Boswell, to discuss the fighting in Ethiopia’s Tigray region, the risk of direct war between Ethiopia and Eritrea and what may prevent further escalation.
The career and political thought of Peter Thiel undermine Francis Fukuyama’s famed but fragile “End of History” thesis—which the author sought to shore up in his new memoir. Originally published at Project Syndicate
House races in Iowa , Pennsylvania, Washington , Michigan and more are shifting in Democrats' direction, according to a Friday update from the closely watched Cook Political Report. Why it matters: The GOP's midterm outlook was already bleak , anchored by an unpopular war and high fuel prices. But staving off a blue resurgence, despite heavy spending , is looking increasingly complicated as Election Day approaches. Driving the news: Cook's new moves put the likely midterm outcome at Democrats picking up nine to 19 seats, a range of 224 to 234. The shifts include: Five seats — in Iowa, Pennsylvania and Washington — moving from toss ups to leaning toward Democrats, including Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks' (R-Iowa) tough rematch race against Democrat Christina Bohannan. Cook also nudged four races — in Iowa, Michigan, North Carolina and Virginia — from leaning toward Republicans to toss-ups. That's good news for Rep. Don Davis (D-N.C.), whose district was warped by mid-decade redistricting. Republicans' hold on other races in Kentucky, Maine, Pennsylvania, Arkansas and Indiana slipped, shifting them to Lean R or Likely R. Meanwhile, Democrats' hold on Nevada, New York and Nebraska races tightened. What they're saying: "House races are won in the districts, one by one, with battle-tested candidates and messages that work," NRCC spokesman Mike Marinella said in a statement provided to Axios. "Pundits in D.C. can keep guessing, but voters on the ground have a clear contrast between common sense and crazy," he said, adding that "in November, we're going to win." Friction point: P
Navi Pillay, an outspoken supporter of international law who has served as a judge on multiple global courts and as the UN's top human rights official, won the Nobel Peace Prize on Friday. Why it matters: President Trump once again did not win the prize he has openly coveted . Pillay, among other posts, previously served on the International Criminal Court — a body Trump sanctioned and last month called " rogue " and "evil." What they're saying: " The Nobel Peace Prize for 2026 goes to a person who with exceptional courage and integrity has led the way towards a more comprehensive global legal order," the prize committee said in a social media post. "This year's laureate has been instrumental in ensuring that war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocide are prosecuted." Background: Besides the ICC and the International Criminal Tribunal for Rwanda, Pillay also served as the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights and as chair of the UN Independent International Commission of Inquiry on the Occupied Palestinian Territory. Pillay , 85 and a native of South Africa, began practicing law in the late 1960s and served on her country's high court before her international appointments. Zoom out: Pillay stands for many of the ideas and institutions Trump has condemned. Besides sanctioning the ICC, he withdrew the U.S. from the UN Human Rights Council last year. He's also made a target of South Africa and its Black government, promising asylum to white South African farmers. The AP reported that Pillay, reacting to the news, said world leaders have a "legal obligation to protect hum
Africa · West & Central Asia · North America · Global politics
