President Trump said in a Thursday Truth Social post the execution of the convicted Fort Hood shooter by firing squad will not be live-streamed. The big picture: The president's post walks back an idea that Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth pitched last week, setting off an avalanche of bipartisan condemnation. Driving the news: " He will die, as scheduled, by firing squad, but this event will not be streamed," Trump's post read. He added, "That said, the execution may be viewed in person by the immediate families of the victims, if they so choose." This is a breaking news story and will be updated.
Trump’s diesel deal moves little fuel, but it could cost Ukraine its best lever against Moscow. The post Trump’s Diesel Deal Matters More to Moscow than the Market appeared first on Geopolitical Monitor .
Dr. Yunis GurbanovAll, Energy Sector, Russia Sanctions, Trump Foreign Policy, Ukraine War
Ukraine's Starlink and Starshield satellite services — critical tools in its war against Russia that were unexpectedly throttled this week — have been restored to full capacity, a Ukrainian official tells Axios. The official also said that Ukraine conducted a strike overnight against a Russian oil refinery — defying President Trump's demand that it stop hitting those facilities. Why it matters: The twin developments further strained the U.S.-Ukraine relationship, as the war with Russia drags on and the Trump administration sided with Russian President Vladimir Putin last week by lifting sanctions on Russian oil sales. State of play: The move angered Ukraine. President Volodymyr Zelensky responded by calling it "a weak decision" and a "gift to Putin." Trump then called for Ukraine to elect a new president. The crisis intensified this week when Elon Musk's SpaceX restricted service of Starlink — a satellite service used for defensive purposes in battle — while Starshield, a tool used for offensive war operations that is controlled by the U.S. government, was also slowed. After more than a day, the services were restored. Ukraine, meanwhile, fired on a Russian oil refinery, which U.S. officials are unlikely to look kindly upon. The Ukrainian official said the country resumed strikes because Russia continued to hit Ukrainian energy infrastructure, despite Trump announcing that the two sides had agreed to a ceasefire. That declaration came as a surprise to Zelensky. The bottom line: It's still unclear to many inside the Trump administration and the Ukrainian government whether T
Putin’s conservative staffing policies and search for ever greater control have cemented parliament’s transformation into a bureaucratic appendage of the executive branch.
Andrey PertsevDomestic Politics, Political Reform, Russia
With its public finances in shambles, the far right polling at 35 percent ahead of the 2027 presidential election, and a growing protest movement, is France’s crisis a threat to the EU’s geopolitical awakening?
Rym MomtazEU, Foreign Policy, Domestic Politics, Economy, Security, Europe, France
Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) is on the cusp of leading his party to midterm victory and reclaiming his title as Senate majority leader. Winning the majority isn't guaranteed. But this son of Brooklyn, who has been in public life for 52 years, is more than favored to win a secret ballot to remain Democratic leader. Why it matters: At age 75 (76 by the time the new Congress convenes in January), Charles Ellis Schumer, an old-school pol who visits all 62 of New York's counties every year, looks poised to do what very few people do in life — go out on top. Behind the scenes: For starters, Democratic senators aren't quietly maneuvering — or publicly positioning themselves — to take the top job, according to senior aides. You can't beat someone with no one . A handful of Democratic Senate candidates, including Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Troy Jackson in Maine, haven't committed to supporting Schumer for leader. But they likely don't have the votes to stage a coup. And Schumer's super PAC is spending heavily to get them across the line. That calculus could change if Republicans overperform expectations with a massive win, potentially triggering a serious leadership challenge. Otherwise, the job is Schumer's for the asking — and he's asking. "I am running for re-election for leader. Period," he said two weeks ago. The intrigue: The bigger question surrounding Schumer involves 2028 and whether he'd retire at the top of his game or risk an embarrassing primary loss to, perhaps, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, who was born in the Bronx and represents parts of the Br
Gen Z and millennials have launched their biggest bid yet to remake Congress, but roughly seven in 10 were out by early September, a new report finds. Why it matters: These two generations are struggling to clear the first hurdles of a political system that rewards experience, fundraising and established party support. State of play: A new report from Future Caucus , a nonpartisan nonprofit that works with younger elected officials, found that a record share of this cycle's congressional candidates came from the nation's two youngest political generations. The group identified 3,918 candidates who filed for Congress this cycle, 31% more than in 2024. Of candidates with known or estimated ages, 36.4% were millennials or Gen Z, up from 23.4% in 2024. The report counts everyone who filed and doesn't track how many were first-time candidates. Between the lines : Many young candidates are trying to reach Congress without the political experience that helps candidates advance. Just 1.7% of Gen Z candidates and 9% of millennials have served in a state legislature. Among congressional challengers with age data, nearly 40% of those with state legislative experience reached the general-election stage, compared with 26.2% without it. By the numbers: Only 21.2% of Gen Z congressional candidates remained in the race at the report's September cutoff. That figure rose to 30.2% for millennials, 41.1% for Gen X and 44.5% for Baby Boomers. Nearly 33% of Gen Z candidates failed to qualify for a primary ballot, compared with 18.3% of millennials and 9.4% of Gen X. Incumbents averaged 59 years
Elon Musk 's team reached out to Republicans in late August to discuss a train wreck they all saw coming: Unless the GOP poured more money into Texas immediately, the state's Senate race could be lost in a matter of weeks. Why it matters: That chat set in motion a massive rescue operation for Republican Ken Paxton funded substantially by Musk, the party's largest donor, who gave $158 million in September alone. Musk's rescue gave Paxton's sleepy campaign new life and showed why the world's richest person is the X factor in the push to prevent a midterm debacle for President Trump's party. Zoom out: It also helped Republicans avoid a death-spiral scenario: that propping up Paxton in Texas would force them to drain badly needed resources from other Senate battlegrounds. Instead, Musk's money allowed Republicans to flood Texas' expensive TV markets and free up cash to shore up unexpectedly competitive races in Kansas and South Carolina . Behind the scenes: In late August, Democrat James Talarico was dominating the Texas airwaves, portraying Paxton, the state's attorney general, as one of the nation's most corrupt politicians. Paxton, who isn't known as a prolific fundraiser, was dark on TV. Polling seen by Musk's team and the GOP's Senate Leadership Fund (SLF) suggested his chances were sinking. Against that backdrop, Musk's top political adviser, Chris Young, called SLF president Alex Latcham with an idea: Musk would donate $5 million to a pro-Paxton super PAC if that group raised another $5 million. Latcham countered: Would Musk contribute $10 million if the pro-Paxton group
Why the US midterms are a rare foreign policy election Expert comment LToremark 15 October 2026 US voters are linking economic concerns to the Trump administration’s foreign policy choices. This is bad news for Republicans. Foreign policy rarely decides US elections. Conventional wisdom is that voters know little, and care less, about international affairs. Instead, they are driven by pocketbook issues, like the price of gas and groceries. As James Carville, an adviser to Bill Clinton, once observed : ‘it’s the economy, stupid’. But this year, the economy is foreign policy. There are two important exceptions to the rule that US voters don’t care about foreign policy – and they both apply this year. One, voters care about foreign affairs when an administration’s choices directly affect their daily lives. Two, voters care about what foreign policy choices reveal about a president’s competence as commander-in-chief. The upcoming midterms could therefore be a rare foreign policy election – of a kind not seen since 2006 when a backlash to George W. Bush’s handling of the Iraq war handed Republicans a ‘thumping’ defeat. With voters now feeling the pain of yet another war in the Middle East and Trump’s tariffs, history could repeat itself. The president seems aware of this risk, sending mixed signals about whether the elections will shape his handling of the war in Iran and striking a deal on diesel exports with Russia to ease the pain at the pump for voters. But perhaps the bigger question is what Trump does after the midterms, the last major electoral check on his presidency. Wa
Responding to US sanctions on the International Criminal Court Expert comment sfarrell.drupa… 15 October 2026 The US decision to extend sanctions has upped the ante in its campaign against the ICC. The Court’s supporters must decide how to respond, perhaps now it is time to put all options on the table. On 9 October 2026, the US designated the International Criminal Court under Executive Order 14203, extending its existing sanctions package on individual ICC officials to the entity itself as a whole. The US imposed asset freezes on any property owned by the Court and prohibited all transactions by US individuals or entities involving the ICC. The US has allowed certain limited exceptions to this general prohibition, to allow for the ongoing detention of some awaiting trial, the payment of pensions, the use of IT software and social media and a 180-day ‘wind down’, allowing certain otherwise prohibited transactions until April 2027. These sanctions were introduced by the US in what Secretary of State Marco Rubio called an ongoing campaign to ‘dismantle the ICC brick by brick’. ‘For decades, Republicans and Democrats alike rejected the idea that the International Criminal Court had the power to prosecute American citizens, military service members, or political leaders. America never joined the court. We don’t need it. And we don’t want it,’ Rubio said in a statement. ‘We expect our allies, many of whom are part of the ICC and that rely on American service members for their defense, to rein in the court. If they do not, the United States will continue its campaign to dismantl
Republicans who haven't faced serious reelection fights in years are suddenly campaigning like they're running in swing districts. Why it matters: Democrats are eyeing House districts so Republican that they weren't even on the party's radar at the start of the 2026 midterm election cycle. That includes incumbents like Reps. John McGuire (R-Va.) and Lauren Boebert (R-Colo.), neither of whom were seen as remotely vulnerable coming into the second Trump term. Most of these seats haven't elected a Democrat in years or even decades and are only truly in play if the party is winning nationally by double digits. Even then, some are a stretch. But candidates in Trump country say frustration with rising prices, corruption, the war in Iran and political incumbency in general have led to a sea change that could precipitate some shock results on Nov. 3. State of play: Rep. Jack Bergman (R-Mich.) is running scathing attack ads against Democratic opponent Callie Barr, labeling her "Crooked Callie" and tying her to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Abdul El-Sayed. That's a stark change from 2024, when Bergman defeated Barr by 21 percentage points. His ads that cycle made at most a passing reference to Barr , according to AdImpact. Rep. John McGuire (R-Va.) won by 15 points in 2024, a sleepy general election with minimal spending or ads. He too is running attack ads amid a challenge from former Democratic Rep. Tom Perriello. What we're hearing: Democrats say they are astounded by the level of anti-establishment frustration in their districts. "We're in a real race. It's unreal,"
Speaker Mike Johnson's sudden frank talk about his political future is upending the quiet maneuvering ahead of a post-election GOP leadership contest. Why it matters: The race could become a three-way fight if Johnson follows former Speaker Nancy Pelosi's example and tries to stay in leadership if Republicans lose the majority. Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) has widely been viewed as a top contender for the job — and Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) did not seek a waiver to remain Judiciary chair, fueling speculation that he's preparing to run for leader. Many Republicans privately worry they're going to lose and expected Johnson to step aside if the majority slips away. But his new blunt and unexpected musings on his own future challenge that assumption. Driving the news: "In the unlikely scenario where we lost the majority, I would expect my colleagues would ask me to continue leading this conference, even if we have divided government," Johnson told CBS News. But some members aren't buying it: "Why would you want to be minority leader after speaker?" one House Republican told us, adding they would support new leadership. One leader not taking the bait is Scalise: "There are no races that any of us need to be talking about until after the election's over," he told Axios during an in-flight interview while campaigning out west. Scalise acknowledged Johnson's comments: "I think early on he said he wasn't going to play in hypotheticals, and you know, and he might have gone down that path for a minute. We're focused on holding the House, and that's where my energy is." Between
The rupture between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over last week's diesel deal deepened Wednesday after an Elon Musk -owned satellite system used by Ukraine unexpectedly restricted service — undercutting Ukraine's fight against Russia. Why it matters: The Ukrainian military uses SpaceX's Starlink satellite communications system to control and operate its reconnaissance and intercept drones. When it doesn't operate at full capacity, Ukraine's ability to gather intelligence, use interceptor drones and conduct long-range strikes against Russia is impeded. Service was partially restored on Wednesday, but Ukrainian officials were still searching for answers about why the service was throttled and who was responsible. The limitations came days after a new crisis erupted between the U.S. and Ukraine over Trump's agreement to lift sanctions on Russian oil sales. Zelensky criticized the move, then Trump called for Ukraine to elect a new president. A senior U.S. official said the Trump administration had nothing to do with the alleged Starlink service constraints. But Ukrainian officials remain suspicious. Driving the news: Ukrainian officials said SpaceX imposed the restrictions Tuesday night. The system turned off, they said, when a drone exceeded 160 kph. In some cases, it disconnected when the speed went over 80 kph. The Starlink restrictions came several hours after the Ukrainian military did not receive an early warning about a Russian ballistic missile attack. Ukrainian officials said the U.S. has provided such alerts over the last several years as
The Trump administration is threatening emergency court action unless California officials investigate potential ineligible voters within 48 hours and set aside ballots from anyone whose citizenship they cannot verify, according to two letters sent to state officials from the Justice Department. Why it matters: With voting already underway, President Trump 's DOJ could delay ballots from eligible Californians mistakenly flagged as noncitizens and set up a court fight just three weeks before Election Day. Driving the news: Acting Deputy Attorney General R. Trent McCotter sent a letter Tuesday to Los Angeles County Registrar-Recorder/County Clerk Dean Logan along with a thumb drive of "likely noncitizens who were sent a vote-by-mail ballot," according to a copy of the letter shared with Axios. McCotter asks local officials to investigate their citizenship status by noon October 15. The letter did not say how many people are on the list. For anyone whose status can't be confirmed, DOJ asks the officials to "segregate—not cancel" those ballots and suspend signature verification or counting of any ballots already returned. DOJ also asks officials to withhold ballots from people on the list unless their citizenship has been confirmed. California Secretary of State Shirley Weber received a similar letter . Friction point: McCotter closed his letter with a threat: "If you cannot implement this process by then, given the ongoing federal election, the United States will have no choice but to seek emergency relief." What they're saying: "This should not be controversial, as the crimin
President Trump has directed his White House counsel to examine explosive allegations dropped on him Friday in the Oval Office: Former Trump attorney Alina Habba told the president that another one of his top advisers — former Kennedy Center leader Ric Grenell — failed to deposit a multimillion-dollar donation that her billionaire husband made to the center a year ago, according to four senior administration officials and three insiders briefed on the controversy. Grenell denied the accusations as "absurd" and a "lie." Habba and her husband, Turhan Mildon, declined to comment through a spokesperson. Why it matters: The extraordinary row between the two top-tier presidential advisers and former allies provides a rare and acrimonious behind-the-scenes glimpse into the intersection of power, influence and money in Trump's Washington. The total value of the contribution in question: nearly $6 million, White House sources said Habba told them. A senior administration official cautioned that "these are only allegations. We don't know if they're true. This could be a misunderstanding." Said another: "POTUS doesn't want to deal with this. Of course, he's concerned. But if there is missing money, this is a big, big problem." Just a few months ago , Grenell was friends with Mildon and Habba. But he was notably absent from their $10 million wedding that was attended by Trump world officials, power brokers and luminaries last month. "This is the ultimate MAGA blood feud," said one Trump world insider with knowledge of the conflict. Zoom in: The dispute grew out of a friendship between
After Trump’s Russian diesel deal, will Europe give Ukraine the support it needs? Expert comment jon.wallace 14 October 2026 The new row between Washington and Kyiv must not distract Europe’s leaders from the urgent matter at hand: how to sustain Ukraine’s economy through the winter. An intervention by President Donald Trump this week has once again created problems for Ukraine’s war effort. The president’s deal with Moscow, which could see millions of barrels of Russian diesel released to global markets, was condemned by Democrats and even some prominent Republicans in the US. Trump openly framed the deal as an effort to secure ‘Lower prices for Americans’ as midterm elections approach in November. It is uncertain that the deal will do much to swing votes back to the president’s party. But it has created another open dispute between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – at precisely the moment when Ukraine needs renewed, focussed support from its allies. A mounting Russian assault Recent weeks have seen a noticeable shift in Russia’s war strategy. Some had expected Putin to order a new wave of mobilization and a renewed offensive in the Donbas. Instead, he has moved to intensify Russia’s ballistic missile and drone campaign, with the aim of breaking Ukraine’s economy. There has been a marked uptick in attacks on ports, grain storage and shipping, seemingly to block Ukrainian agricultural exports. Key bridges across the River Dnipro in Kyiv have been hit. So have railways across the country. And attacks have continued on Ukraine’s energy grid (despite the ‘ energy cease
Kyiv calls India’s truce plan the broadest of four on the table. Moscow says it covers only part of a settlement. The post India’s Bid to Broker an Energy and Black Sea Truce in Ukraine appeared first on Geopolitical Monitor .
Nikola MikovicAll, India Foreign Policy, Supply Chains, Ukraine War
A U.S. Air Force reconnaissance flight photographed evidence that the Soviet Union was installing nuclear-armed ballistic missiles in Cuba, touching off the Cuban Missile Crisis.
