Cargo traffic through Russia’s Northern Sea Route has increased because of the disruption caused by the conflict in the Middle East, the Ukraine war, and U.S.-China tensions.
Europe · West & Central Asia · East Asia · Global politics
Escaping the Hormuz trap: What should an agreement to reopen the Strait look like? Expert comment jon.wallace 30 September 2026 A detailed, reciprocal, and verifiable process is essential to ensure that any agreement holds. The war between the United States and Iran has entered an uncertain phase between escalation and diplomacy. At the UN General Assembly, Iran offered a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and resume nuclear talks – if various conditions were met. That has apparently been rejected by President Donald Trump. Subsequent reports claimed the president was considering new strikes on Iran. Meanwhile, attacks on ships from the Iran-backed Houthis have extended the conflict into the Red Sea. Given the scope of disagreement between Washington and Tehran, and the global impact of the Strait’s prolonged closure, any settlement will likely need to begin with an unwinding of the Hormuz situation. Can that be achieved? It is possible. But a successful agreement on Hormuz requires above all a technically precise, reciprocal, and verifiable process that focuses on restoring freedom of navigation. It is unlikely to be effectively addressed through another vague Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), or as part of a wider grand bargain. Status of the Strait Tehran has enforced its declared ‘closure’ of the Strait of Hormuz by demanding that ships transit through Iranian waters, charging tolls, and striking vessels it claims have violated its policies. This has resulted in 85 maritime incidents and 24 seafarer deaths reported across the Gulf region. The US has responded by i
West & Central Asia · North America · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics
East Asia · North America · Global politics
The domestic impacts of how long it is taking to end the war in Ukraine have pushed the French electorate to the political extremes and compromised the country’s diplomatic capacity.
Europe · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics
Crisis Group expert Daniel Akech examines how President Kiir’s call for fresh elections aims to weaken his opponents, and may pave the way to worsening armed conflict
East Africa · Defense · Global politics
What are financial markets telling us? 7 October 2026 — 18:00 TO 19:00 BST Anonymous (not verified) 29 September 2026 Chatham House and Online Learn how geopolitics, inflation, AI and fiscal policy are converging to reshape borrowing costs. Learn how geopolitics, inflation, AI and fiscal policy are converging to reshape borrowing costs. Global bond yields have risen sharply this year thanks to a variety of forces, including war-fuelled inflation, AI-driven growth, loose fiscal policy and geopolitical risk. Recent interventions have struggled to contain market pressure, sharpening questions about where we may be headed. Is a new financial crisis possible? This event discusses: What are rising yields signalling about inflation, global growth and government debt burdens? Why have recent interventions struggled to contain pressure in bond markets? How is conflict in the Middle East affecting inflation expectations and borrowing costs? What does AI-driven economic activity mean for interest rates and asset prices? How are loose fiscal policies changing sovereign debt risks? Could weaker demand for AI compute trigger a wider market correction?
West & Central Asia · Oil & energy · Global politics
West & Central Asia · Global politics
What does Brazil's 2026 election mean for its foreign policy and democracy? 22 October 2026 — 17:00 TO 18:00 BST Anonymous (not verified) 28 September 2026 Online Brazil’s 2026 election pits competing visions of democracy, economic policy, security and foreign policy against deep voter distrust. Experts unpack the results of Brazil’s 4 October election and discuss what Brazil’s election mean for democracy, foreign policy, climate change, multilateralism and geopolitics. Experts unpack the results so far, and discuss what they mean for democracy, foreign policy, climate change, multilateralism and geopolitics. At stake are the future of relations with Washington and Beijing, support for the BRICS and other multilateral organizations, and the response to domestic insecurity. This event discusses: Which issues and voter concerns are shaping Brazil’s 2026 election? How could the result affect trust in elections and democratic institutions? What do divisions over foreign policy – including climate change and the BRICS – mean for Brazil’s foreign policy? How could relations with the US and China change after the election? What would the result mean for economic policy, trade and investor confidence?
South & Central America · Global politics
US midterms polls: Are Democrats winning or is Trump losing? Expert comment thilton.drupal 28 September 2026 Polls suggest Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives as American voters are dissatisfied with President Trump and his policies. Americans go to the polls on 3 November to elect a third of the US Senate and all the House of Representatives. The Republicans currently have majorities in both chambers of Congress. But their prospects of retaining this control look increasingly dire. The Republicans’ chances have been dragged down by President Donald Trump’s near-record low public approval rating and voter dissatisfaction with his handling of the Iran war and the economy, among other things. Democrats appear poised to take advantage, with most pundits suggesting they will retake control of at least the House of Representatives. But the race is not over yet. In the end, the key factor will likely be turnout, which is historically lower in midterms than presidential elections. Whichever party better mobilizes their voters to turn up on election day will ultimately determine the outcome. Democrats are strong favourites At this point, this election is the Democratic Party’s to lose. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the 435-seat House of Representatives. To control the House, which gives a party the ability to name chairmen of committees and set the legislative agenda, the Democrats will need to win at least 218 seats. They currently have 212 seats. Due to polarization and redistricting, most seats are highly unlikely to change party. Electi
West & Central Asia · North America · Oil & energy · Global politics
Israel’s election: What will it mean for neighbours and allies? 8 October 2026 — 17:00 TO 18:15 BST Anonymous (not verified) 28 September 2026 Chatham House and Online Hear from experts on the foreign policy choices facing Israel’s next government. Hear from experts on the foreign policy choices facing Israel’s next government. Israel’s upcoming election follows three years of war and a marked decline in international support. Leading candidates to be prime minister offer little in terms of rethinking Israeli foreign policy and all reject Palestinian statehood. The election outcome could have profound consequences for the Palestinians and Israel’s relations with neighbouring states and international partners. This event discusses: What is at stake for Palestinians and regional states in Israel’s election? Would a change of government alter relations with the UK, US and Europe? How do leading candidates view relations with Lebanon, Syria and Turkey? How might Israel’s next government approach Iran? Could a new government change Israel’s approach to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict? Can Israel’s next government rebuild international public support?
West & Central Asia · Defense · Global politics
In an interview, Ian Lustick and Eli Clifton discuss their new book on why a prominent ally has so much influence in America.
West & Central Asia · North America · Global politics
Sergei Kiriyenko used Russia’s parliamentary vote to further hone his strategy of corporate mobilization that is designed to maximize votes for United Russia.
Europe · Global politics
SIPRI convened an online event focused on integrating the WPS agenda into peacebuilding.
West & Central Asia · South & Central America · Defense · Global politics
As European leaders hobnob with their counterparts at the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly, they must think carefully about how to navigate a fast-changing multilateral landscape. The old world belonged to rule-makers and institution-builders, but the current one favours those who can improvise
Europe · West & Central Asia · East Asia · North America · Global politics
Brazil’s presidential election is more than just another polarized contest Expert comment jon.wallace 28 September 2026 A Bolsonaro victory would mean Trump-aligned governments dominate South America. The first round of Brazil’s presidential election is scheduled for 4 October, with 13 candidates competing to occupy the Brazilian presidential palace, Planalto. For now, the contest is dominated by two men. Only a few percentage points (depending on the poll) separate 80-year-old President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) – running for his fourth term – and 45-year-old Flávio Bolsonaro of the right-wing Liberal Party (PL). Flávio is the son of the man Lula defeated in 2022, former president Jair Bolsonaro (2019–23), sometimes referred to as the ‘Trump of the tropics’. Lula squeaked out a narrow victory in the 2022 contest, of 50.9 to 49.1 percent in the second round, after public opinion surveys had seriously undercounted the support of his right-wing rival. Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving time for plotting a coup , after his supporters rioted in Brasilia in 2023 in an effort to overturn the 2022 results. This year’s contest is more than a familial grudge match. For one, it looks a lot like recent presidential elections in the region. In June, elections in both Peru and Colombia went to a second round. Each resulted in a narrow victory for conservative candidates who, like the Bolsonaros, are aligned with the regional diplomatic agenda of US President Donald Trump. Another tight contest now looms in Brazil, the most populous country and largest democra
South & Central America · Global politics
The Climate Briefing: Contested waters in international politics Audio thilton.drupal 25 September 2026 Climate change, rising demand, and geopolitical rivalry are reshaping the politics of water. Bhargabi, Beatrice, and their guests discuss what’s at stake for cooperation on shared water resources. This season of droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires has shone a light on a growing vulnerability: the security of our water resources. Following the Stockholm World Water Week that took place last month and an upcoming UN Water Conference in Abu Dhabi later this year, this episode explores questions around how climate change and growing demand are reshaping global water security. It considers: Where is water becoming a source or a tool of geopolitical tension? Is the international system equipped to manage these pressures? What can be done about it? To find out, Bhargabi and Beatrice Mosello speak to Susanne Schmeier, Professor of Water Cooperation, Law and Diplomacy at IHE Delft and Utrecht University, and David Michel, Senior Associate (non-resident) at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Read more expert commentary on this topic here: The world is far off meeting its growing water needs. Can the UN still lead the response? India and Pakistan still cannot agree to restore the Indus Waters Treaty – but re-engagement could help bring lasting peace Europe’s summer of fires: Burnham must centre climate adaptation in policies About The Climate Briefing The Climate Briefing explores key themes in the UN climate negotiations and international climate politics. The podca
Global politics
Trump has promised Belarus a massive potash deal. But Minsk is seeking something greater: restored Western transit and greater room for maneuver from Russia.
Europe · North America · Oil & energy · Global politics
New energy and trade routes could bypass Hormuz and change the Middle East. But major challenges remain Expert comment thilton.drupal 25 September 2026 The Strait of Hormuz crisis is accelerating a wider reordering of the region, as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon plan new oil pipelines and transport corridors. But whether they can seize the opportunity to diversify will ultimately depend on wider reforms. The war on Iran and the resulting disruption to the Strait of Hormuz has exposed the vulnerability of existing trade and energy routes and unsettled the old balance of power across the Middle East. In this context, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are seeking to capitalize on their position between Europe and the Gulf and improve their connectivity via oil and gas pipelines, roads, railways and digital corridors. Once central to an Iranian regional order, all three governments are now aiming to achieve greater sovereignty by diversifying their economic ties, a shift supported by the Trump administration. Yet they are attempting to do so while facing foreign occupations and military action, and while also confronting domestic endemic corruption and fragmented political systems that empower armed groups. Whether they can seize this opportunity to become more connected – and more sovereign – will therefore depend not only on the infrastructure they build, but on whether they can reform their states to govern it. Changing energy routes The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused severe disruption to regional energy flows, including from Iraq. Pre-war, Iraq was exporting around 3.
West & Central Asia · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics
China rising, America in decline? The Trump-Xi summit Audio sseth.drupal@c… 25 September 2026 In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss the Trump-Xi summit in Washington and the increasing competition between the two superpowers. President Donald Trump welcomes Xi Jinping to Washington with the US-China dynamic in a moment of historic flux. China is rising economically and militarily, while the US is mired in the Iran war, alienating allies and pursuing Trump’s unpredictable trade and tariff disputes. What do the two leaders want from this meeting, and will they get it? Can they reconcile their differing economic powers, the competition for critical minerals, and their radically contrasting visions for artificial intelligence. And in the longer term: who will dominate the 21st century? Does Xi really want to retake Taiwan for China before his time in power ends? Or is the US-Chinese dynamic more complex and perhaps less alarming? To unpick these threads Bronwen Maddox is joined by three experts from Chatham House’s Asia-Pacific Programme: programme director Ben Bland, senior research fellow Dr Yu Jie and associate fellow Dr Bill Hayton. About Independent Thinking Independent Thinking is a weekly international affairs podcast hosted by our director Bronwen Maddox, in conversation with leading policymakers, journalists and Chatham House experts providing insight on the latest international issues. More ways to listen: Apple Podcasts and Spotify . Explore our other Chatham House podcasts .
West & Central Asia · East Asia · North America · Defense · Cybersecurity · Global politics
