Dwayne | Reading desk

Chatham House22 Sept

Trump–Xi summit: Why the US and China should not underestimate each other

Trump–Xi summit: Why the US and China should not underestimate each other Expert comment LToremark 22 September 2026 The US and China both face serious domestic strains. As Trump and Xi meet this week to discuss trade, AI and Taiwan, neither side should mistake the other’s weaknesses for strategic decline. A superpower summit is a big deal. As US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping meet in Washington this week, they have a lot to cover. They will try to extend a trade truce that expires in November, including China’s pause on rare earth export controls and America’s delay on chip restrictions. The leaders will also tackle Taiwan, where Beijing wants Washington to halt a $14 billion arms package, as well as China’s purchases of Iranian oil and a proposed dialogue on the national security risks of artificial intelligence (AI). In their negotiations, each side may be tempted to focus on the other’s weaknesses. But underestimating the other’s power would be unwise. China has many weaknesses – but should not be underestimated Many observers argue that China’s economic vulnerabilities will limit its international ambitions. Its growth model is faltering; its households still are not spending, so Beijing continues to push surplus production overseas. This has provoked a backlash of trade barriers from the US, EU and beyond. The property sector – once a quarter of the economy – is in its fifth year of slump, while a mountain of hidden local government debt threatens to drag down China’s growth for years to come. Meanwhile Xi’s government has become steadily more

West & Central Asia · East Asia · North America · Cybersecurity · Oil & energy · Global politics

Carnegie Endowment22 Sept

Three Ruptures and the End of Pax Americana in the Middle East

As the U.S. stumbles in its war with Iran, we are likely to see an acceleration of its disengagement from the region.

West & Central Asia · North America · Defense · Global politics

Chatham House21 Sept

Can Gulf Arab countries help break the deadlock over Trump’s Gaza peace plan?

Can Gulf Arab countries help break the deadlock over Trump’s Gaza peace plan? Expert comment LToremark 21 September 2026 Gulf Arab states increasingly view Israel as the main obstacle to progress on the peace plan – and may hope for an opening after Israel’s October elections. Almost a year after US President Donald Trump unveiled his 20-point peace plan for Gaza, which was adopted by both Israel and Hamas and paved the way for the release of all Israeli hostages, the peace process appears to have hit a wall. The two sides remain fundamentally divided over the sequencing of demilitarization and Israeli withdrawal. So far, Hamas has refused to give up its heavy weapons unless Israel halts all military operations and withdraws its forces from the parts of Gaza it currently controls – approximately 60 per cent of the strip – while Israel says it will not withdraw until Hamas disarms. Although President Trump continues to argue that the situation in Gaza is under control, his envoy Jared Kushner, who recently visited Israel, and the director-general of his Board of Peace, Nikolay Mladenov, have so far been unable to launch the second phase of the process. Related work The Iran war has left Gaza neglected In September, Kushner acknowledged that the task of demilitarizing Gaza was proving far more difficult than initially expected: ‘We are starting to understand the scope of the militarization of Gaza. It is beyond your comprehension’. In August, he had told Fox News that he expected Hamas to begin handing over its weapons in ‘ as few as 30 days ’. Meanwhile, the humanitarian sit

West & Central Asia · North America · Defense · Global politics

ECFR21 Sept

Little Venice, little Sparta: The UAE’s statecraft meets the war on Iran

The UAE built its power by turning itself into a hub that binds it to every great power at once. The war with Iran has tested this strategy and is forcing a rethink in Abu Dhabi

West & Central Asia · North America · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics

Chatham House21 Sept

Chatham House fellow gives evidence at UK parliament committee on global AI governance and risks

Chatham House fellow gives evidence at UK parliament committee on global AI governance and risks News release thilton.drupal 21 September 2026 Senior Research Fellow Isabella Wilkinson spoke to the House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee at a time when many are calling for greater regulation of AI in the light of emerging risks. Isabella Wilkinson, Senior Research Fellow with Chatham House’s Digital Society Programme, gave evidence on the global governance of AI to the UK House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee on 16 September. Wilkinson outlined the main types of risk from AI: malicious risks, loss-of-control risks and systemic risks. Addressing the governance challenge posed by these risks, she said: ‘We’re facing a governance challenge because all of these risks are interlinked, so we have to be very strategic about how we design governance at multiple different levels. This is a multilateral challenge.’ Wilkinson said that interlinked governance challenges, including a dearth of trusted information about AI and ‘the lack of a crisis toolbox’ to deploy in the event of a crisis, had led to ‘quite a severe state of gridlock in multilateral AI governance.’ The committee was meeting in a week in which debates over the risks associated with AI featured prominently in public debate, following calls by tech leaders to slow the pace of the technology’s development. ‘We are in a moment of intense crisis and turbulence in multilateral AI governance. But as we’ve learned [from other areas of governance] … these conditions create a window of

Europe · Cybersecurity · Global politics

Carnegie Endowment18 Sept

The U.S. and China Need an AI Hotline. Here’s How to Build It.

It should address the shortcomings of previous crisis communication efforts and adapt to the demands of frontier AI.

East Asia · North America · Cybersecurity · Global politics

Chatham House18 Sept

The Director's Annual Lecture 2027

The Director's Annual Lecture 2027 12 January 2027 — 18:00 TO 19:00 GMT Anonymous (not verified) 18 September 2026 Chatham House and Online Join Chatham House Director and Chief Executive Bronwen Maddox for the 2027 Director’s Annual Lecture. Join Chatham House Director and Chief Executive Bronwen Maddox for the 2027 Director’s Annual Lecture. Bronwen Maddox, Director and Chief Executive at Chatham House, delivers her annual lecture.

Europe · Global politics

Carnegie Endowment18 Sept

Leaving Russian-Speakers Without Representation Is a Risk for Latvia

If the Russian-speaking community in Latvia cannot articulate their interests without being seen as disloyal, they could end up embracing a pro-Kremlin agenda.

Europe · Global politics

Chatham House18 Sept

‘Coupling without fusion’: Canada and Europe test a new kind of alliance

‘Coupling without fusion’: Canada and Europe test a new kind of alliance Expert comment jon.wallace 18 September 2026 The deeper relationship proposed by Carney and von der Leyen could send a powerful geopolitical message. But can agreement be reached without antagonizing EU candidate countries? There is something rather extraordinary about the geopolitical times we live in. They are making what seemed impossible yesterday possible today, and what once sounded laughable increasingly credible. This week’s proposals for closer integration between Canada and the EU undoubtedly belongs to that category. On 16 September, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen proposed making Canada the EU’s first ‘associate member’. The next day, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney used his address to the European Parliament to set out an unusually ambitious programme of economic and strategic integration. Canada and Europe, he argued , should cooperate across critical minerals, defence production, artificial intelligence and computing, energy, space and payments. They should move towards ‘seamless’ digital trade in non-agricultural goods and services. And they should expand opportunities for young Canadians and Europeans to live, work and study across the Atlantic. Canada also eyes access to the EU’s Horizon research programme. If the concept of associate membership is yet to be properly defined – starting with meaningful legal substance – Carney’s address gave it discernible geopolitical purpose. His argument rests on a lesson he has repeated since his Davos speech in January 2026:

Europe · North America · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics

ECFR18 Sept

Associate membership could transform EU-Canada ties. First, Brussels has to define it

Canada’s enthusiasm for closer EU ties is real, and so is the EU’s need for allies beyond America. But as long as the EU’s offer of “associate membership” to Canada remains undefined, it risks ending up as empty symbolism

Europe · North America · Global politics

Carnegie Endowment18 Sept

Iraq’s Disarmament Path Begins with Reform of the PMF

The Zaidi government’s objective to collect weapons is constrained by regional conflict, but it can take certain measures at home.

West & Central Asia · Defense · Global politics

Politico17 Sept

US, in controversial deal, agrees to sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia

Lawmakers have expressed concerns for years that the move would give China access to sensitive technology.

West & Central Asia · North America · Defense · Global politics

Politico17 Sept

Trump floats setting up Army base in Poland

The potential move comes after the Pentagon sought to pull troops from the country earlier this year.

Europe · North America · Defense · Global politics

Carnegie Endowment17 Sept

The UN Isn’t Declining. It’s Decomposing.

Washington’s decision to support some UN functions while letting others wither is pulling the organization apart at the seams.

North America · Global politics

Chatham House17 Sept

Imbalances are a feature of the global financial system, not a bug

Imbalances are a feature of the global financial system, not a bug Expert comment jon.wallace 17 September 2026 The current focus on ‘global imbalances’ is too easily used by policymakers as a smokescreen for their own domestic failings. Global imbalances are back on the international finance agenda this year, prompting a flagship G7 report and creating discord at the G20 finance minsters’ summit. Seemingly this focus on global imbalances is justified. China’s trade in goods surplus now alarms Europe’s leaders as much as it worries America’s. The US’s net liability to the world – the degree to which its overseas borrowing exceeds its overseas investments – reached an astonishing 70 per cent of US GDP in 2025. The last time global imbalances were this prominent was just ahead of 2008’s Global Financial Crisis. What a shame, then, that this focus is so misguided. Imbalances are a feature of the global financial system, not a bug. They arise from saving and investment decisions, allowing diversification and dispersing risk in the process. In truth, ‘global imbalances’ are not primarily a global phenomenon. They are simply the product of all the world’s domestic imbalances added up. And because foreign investment is more mobile than domestic investment, it is more likely to punish bad domestic policymaking by moving elsewhere. The result is to impose discipline – constraints – on political choices. There is a generous interpretation of the motives for the current focus on global imbalances. It is possible that simultaneous domestic reforms across the global economy would make f

East Asia · North America · Global politics

Chatham House17 Sept

Corporate Leaders Series: Catherine Raw, Chief Development Officer at global resources company BHP

Corporate Leaders Series: Catherine Raw, Chief Development Officer at global resources company BHP 14 October 2026 — 09:00 TO 10:00 BST Anonymous (not verified) 17 September 2026 Chatham House Hear from Catherine Raw at BHP, the world’s largest mining company by market capitalization, on the forces reshaping global demand for resources. Hear from Catherine Raw at BHP, the world’s largest mining company by market capitalization, on the forces reshaping global demand for resources. Trade volatility, the energy transition and state intervention are reshaping demand for strategic resources. In this Corporate Leaders Series event, BHP Chief Development Officer Catherine Raw examines how capital, policy and supply chains are increasingly interconnected, and what effective leadership looks like as global demand continues to grow. This event discusses: What is driving global demand for copper, iron ore, steelmaking, coal and potash? How are trade and industrial policies reshaping resource investment decisions? What role can strategic partnerships play in strengthening supply chains? How should resource companies balance the energy transition with near-term cost pressures? What does effective global leadership look like in volatile markets? If you are not a corporate member of Chatham House but would still like to attend, please email the Conferences team to apply to attend.

Oil & energy · Global politics

Carnegie Endowment17 Sept

Taking the Pulse: Does the EU Have a Germany Problem?

Are Germany’s economic, industrial, and political struggles becoming a liability for the EU’s ability to rise to the geopolitical moment?

Europe · Oil & energy · Global politics

Carnegie Endowment17 Sept

Putin Has Been a Hindrance, Not a Help, to United Russia’s Election Campaign

Russia’s ruling party would have benefited from Putin appearing as its distant patron, but as an active frontman imposing his views on the public, he has done nothing but harm both the party’s election campaign and the ruling system overall.

Europe · Global politics

Chatham House16 Sept

The European agenda and UK–EU relations: a French perspective on a changing world

The European agenda and UK–EU relations: a French perspective on a changing world 24 September 2026 — 11:30 TO 12:30 BST Anonymous (not verified) 16 September 2026 Chatham House and Online How France views the current state of European affairs and the next phase of cooperation between the EU and the UK under the new Burnham government. How France views the next phase of cooperation between the EU and the UK under the new Burnham government As part of the UK in the World Programme’s new UK–EU series, join France’s Minister for Europe, Benjamin Haddad to examine the EU agenda and the future of UK–EU relations. The discussion will explore how Europe can strengthen cooperation, security and competitiveness in a changing geopolitical environment. This event will discuss: What is France’s perspective on the European agenda? How does the EU-UK relation fit into that agenda? What opportunities exist to deepen UK–EU cooperation a decade after Brexit? How does France view the future of the relationship between London and Brussels What major political, economic and security challenges remain? How can the UK and EU work more closely on European security and defence? What role can France and the UK play in strengthening Europe’s competitiveness and influence? What outcomes are realistic in the near term for UK–EU relations?

Europe · Global politics

ECFR16 Sept

An outsider within: The paradox of the Europe-Turkey relationship

Turkey is neither drifting away from the West nor is it coming home. It has become an embedded outsider: a middle power that has learned to build strategic autonomy from inside the Western system rather than by leaving it.

Europe · West & Central Asia · Defense · Global politics