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Chatham House28 SeptArticle

Israel’s election: What will it mean for neighbours and allies?

Israel’s election: What will it mean for neighbours and allies? 8 October 2026 — 17:00 TO 18:15 BST Anonymous (not verified) 28 September 2026 Chatham House and Online Hear from experts on the foreign policy choices facing Israel’s next government. Hear from experts on the foreign policy choices facing Israel’s next government. Israel’s upcoming election follows three years of war and a marked decline in international support. Leading candidates to be prime minister offer little in terms of rethinking Israeli foreign policy and all reject Palestinian statehood. The election outcome could have profound consequences for the Palestinians and Israel’s relations with neighbouring states and international partners. This event discusses: What is at stake for Palestinians and regional states in Israel’s election? Would a change of government alter relations with the UK, US and Europe? How do leading candidates view relations with Lebanon, Syria and Turkey? How might Israel’s next government approach Iran? Could a new government change Israel’s approach to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict? Can Israel’s next government rebuild international public support?

Anonymous

Chatham House28 SeptArticle

Brazil’s presidential election is more than just another polarized contest

Brazil’s presidential election is more than just another polarized contest Expert comment jon.wallace 28 September 2026 A Bolsonaro victory would mean Trump-aligned governments dominate South America. The first round of Brazil’s presidential election is scheduled for 4 October, with 13 candidates competing to occupy the Brazilian presidential palace, Planalto. For now, the contest is dominated by two men. Only a few percentage points (depending on the poll) separate 80-year-old President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party (PT) – running for his fourth term – and 45-year-old Flávio Bolsonaro of the right-wing Liberal Party (PL). Flávio is the son of the man Lula defeated in 2022, former president Jair Bolsonaro (2019–23), sometimes referred to as the ‘Trump of the tropics’. Lula squeaked out a narrow victory in the 2022 contest, of 50.9 to 49.1 percent in the second round, after public opinion surveys had seriously undercounted the support of his right-wing rival. Jair Bolsonaro is currently serving time for plotting a coup , after his supporters rioted in Brasilia in 2023 in an effort to overturn the 2022 results. This year’s contest is more than a familial grudge match. For one, it looks a lot like recent presidential elections in the region. In June, elections in both Peru and Colombia went to a second round. Each resulted in a narrow victory for conservative candidates who, like the Bolsonaros, are aligned with the regional diplomatic agenda of US President Donald Trump. Another tight contest now looms in Brazil, the most populous country and largest democra

jon.wallace

Chatham House25 SeptArticle

The Climate Briefing: Contested waters in international politics

The Climate Briefing: Contested waters in international politics Audio thilton.drupal 25 September 2026 Climate change, rising demand, and geopolitical rivalry are reshaping the politics of water. Bhargabi, Beatrice, and their guests discuss what’s at stake for cooperation on shared water resources. This season of droughts, heatwaves, and wildfires has shone a light on a growing vulnerability: the security of our water resources. Following the Stockholm World Water Week that took place last month and an upcoming UN Water Conference in Abu Dhabi later this year, this episode explores questions around how climate change and growing demand are reshaping global water security. It considers: Where is water becoming a source or a tool of geopolitical tension? Is the international system equipped to manage these pressures? What can be done about it? To find out, Bhargabi and Beatrice Mosello speak to Susanne Schmeier, Professor of Water Cooperation, Law and Diplomacy at IHE Delft and Utrecht University, and David Michel, Senior Associate (non-resident) at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies. Read more expert commentary on this topic here: The world is far off meeting its growing water needs. Can the UN still lead the response? India and Pakistan still cannot agree to restore the Indus Waters Treaty – but re-engagement could help bring lasting peace Europe’s summer of fires: Burnham must centre climate adaptation in policies About The Climate Briefing The Climate Briefing explores key themes in the UN climate negotiations and international climate politics. The podca

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Chatham House25 SeptArticle

New energy and trade routes could bypass Hormuz and change the Middle East. But major challenges remain

New energy and trade routes could bypass Hormuz and change the Middle East. But major challenges remain Expert comment thilton.drupal 25 September 2026 The Strait of Hormuz crisis is accelerating a wider reordering of the region, as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon plan new oil pipelines and transport corridors. But whether they can seize the opportunity to diversify will ultimately depend on wider reforms. The war on Iran and the resulting disruption to the Strait of Hormuz has exposed the vulnerability of existing trade and energy routes and unsettled the old balance of power across the Middle East. In this context, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are seeking to capitalize on their position between Europe and the Gulf and improve their connectivity via oil and gas pipelines, roads, railways and digital corridors. Once central to an Iranian regional order, all three governments are now aiming to achieve greater sovereignty by diversifying their economic ties, a shift supported by the Trump administration. Yet they are attempting to do so while facing foreign occupations and military action, and while also confronting domestic endemic corruption and fragmented political systems that empower armed groups. Whether they can seize this opportunity to become more connected – and more sovereign – will therefore depend not only on the infrastructure they build, but on whether they can reform their states to govern it. Changing energy routes The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused severe disruption to regional energy flows, including from Iraq. Pre-war, Iraq was exporting around 3.

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Chatham House25 SeptArticle

China rising, America in decline? The Trump-Xi summit

China rising, America in decline? The Trump-Xi summit Audio sseth.drupal@c… 25 September 2026 In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss the Trump-Xi summit in Washington and the increasing competition between the two superpowers. President Donald Trump welcomes Xi Jinping to Washington with the US-China dynamic in a moment of historic flux. China is rising economically and militarily, while the US is mired in the Iran war, alienating allies and pursuing Trump’s unpredictable trade and tariff disputes. What do the two leaders want from this meeting, and will they get it? Can they reconcile their differing economic powers, the competition for critical minerals, and their radically contrasting visions for artificial intelligence. And in the longer term: who will dominate the 21st century? Does Xi really want to retake Taiwan for China before his time in power ends? Or is the US-Chinese dynamic more complex and perhaps less alarming? To unpick these threads Bronwen Maddox is joined by three experts from Chatham House’s Asia-Pacific Programme: programme director Ben Bland, senior research fellow Dr Yu Jie and associate fellow Dr Bill Hayton. About Independent Thinking Independent Thinking is a weekly international affairs podcast hosted by our director Bronwen Maddox, in conversation with leading policymakers, journalists and Chatham House experts providing insight on the latest international issues. More ways to listen: Apple Podcasts and Spotify . Explore our other Chatham House podcasts .

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Chatham House24 SeptArticle

What can DRC’s national dialogue achieve?

What can DRC’s national dialogue achieve? Expert comment jon.wallace 24 September 2026 President Tshisekedi and the opposition both want national dialogue. But it remains to be seen whether they can agree on the nature of the DRC’s problems, let alone their solutions. When President of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) Félix Tshisekedi finally announced a ‘national dialogue’ on 27 August, he evoked the country’s long history of previous negotiations. Too often, he said, they had been about elite power sharing, had not meaningfully included the Congolese people, and had legitimized armed insurrection. This time will be different, he promised. Tshisekedi appealed directly to the Congolese people by proposing a series of public consultations in all 26 provinces, culminating in a convention in Kinshasa. Unlike previous dialogues, this process has a more ambitious aim. It not only seeks to address the causes of insecurity and inequality in DRC and identify reforms. It also seeks to reconstruct or re-found the state. The opposition immediately denounced the project. The C64, a coalition made up of opposition heavyweights including Moïse Katumbi, Martin Fayulu, Delly Sesanga and Jean-Marc Kabund, rejected Tshisekedi’s proposal . So too did the ‘Sauvons le Congo’ platform created by exiled former president Joseph Kabila. Tshisekedi’s plan, they claim, is intended above all to legitimize his attempt to change the constitution, possibly allowing the president to extend his rule beyond his two-term limit, which ends in 2028. They point to a controversial bill that would pave

jon.wallace

Chatham House24 SeptArticle

Palestine, Jordan and Egypt ambassadors: On the future of Palestine

Palestine, Jordan and Egypt ambassadors: On the future of Palestine 5 October 2026 — 13:30 TO 14:45 BST Anonymous (not verified) 24 September 2026 Chatham House Join this fascinating discussion as three Middle East ambassadors to the UK discuss reconstruction, security, President Trump’s Board of Peace, and more. Join this fascinating discussion as three Mideast ambassadors to the UK discuss reconstruction, security, President Trump’s Board of Peace, and more. In August 2026, eight Arab and Islamic countries issued a statement reiterating their support for an independent, sovereign Palestinian state. The group condemned Israeli measures aimed at displacing Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, as well as Israel’s continued resistance to implementing President Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza. This event will bring together ambassadors from states in the Middle East to discuss developments in Palestine. They will also talk about the role of regional states – and the UK - in furthering dialogue, peace and reconstruction. This event discusses: How are Arab states supporting peace, security, and reconstruction in Palestine? What are the immediate and medium-term priorities? What are states’ perspectives towards the Board of Peace, and President Trump’s Peace Plan? What are key takeaways from UNGA concerning regional and global actors’ positions towards Israel and Palestine? Where do opportunities lie for achieving long-term peace? What role do external actors, including the UK and EU, have in supporting Palestine’s future? There will be a 30-minute coffee reception following the

Anonymous

Chatham House24 SeptArticle

Denmark’s Greenland deal with Trump is a victory for diplomacy over bullying

Denmark’s Greenland deal with Trump is a victory for diplomacy over bullying Expert comment jon.wallace 24 September 2026 Denmark used its soft power to rally support and took the dispute out of the limelight – addressing underlying US interests instead of President Trump’s unacceptable public position. This week, Denmark has extricated itself from a period of coercive US diplomacy over Greenland. The agreement announced on 22 September elegantly resolves the dispute over the territory, without forcing Denmark or the government of Greenland to give up very much. Even before the dispute, Denmark had indicated it would be content to increase the number of US bases in Greenland and enhance US access to them. These measures were already possible under an existing 1951 agreement. The new agreement adds an undertaking by Denmark and Greenland to refuse major investments from non-members of the EU or NATO that would grant them a foothold in strategic Arctic areas. Again, on this point, Washington was pushing on an open door. The only meaningful change concerns the mechanism to ensure that this arrangement will be permanent. The 1951 agreement, amended in 2004, also does not expire. But the new text adds that Greenland will remain part of NATO and continue to comply with the agreement, should it opt for independence. An independent Greenland might have been willing to retain the US bases and related agreements anyway. After all, it would need to rely on US defence support and a NATO security guarantee. But expressly making these points in an agreement co-signed by Greenland overcam

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Chatham House22 SeptArticle

Trump–Xi summit: Why the US and China should not underestimate each other

Trump–Xi summit: Why the US and China should not underestimate each other Expert comment LToremark 22 September 2026 The US and China both face serious domestic strains. As Trump and Xi meet this week to discuss trade, AI and Taiwan, neither side should mistake the other’s weaknesses for strategic decline. A superpower summit is a big deal. As US President Donald Trump and China’s President Xi Jinping meet in Washington this week, they have a lot to cover. They will try to extend a trade truce that expires in November, including China’s pause on rare earth export controls and America’s delay on chip restrictions. The leaders will also tackle Taiwan, where Beijing wants Washington to halt a $14 billion arms package, as well as China’s purchases of Iranian oil and a proposed dialogue on the national security risks of artificial intelligence (AI). In their negotiations, each side may be tempted to focus on the other’s weaknesses. But underestimating the other’s power would be unwise. China has many weaknesses – but should not be underestimated Many observers argue that China’s economic vulnerabilities will limit its international ambitions. Its growth model is faltering; its households still are not spending, so Beijing continues to push surplus production overseas. This has provoked a backlash of trade barriers from the US, EU and beyond. The property sector – once a quarter of the economy – is in its fifth year of slump, while a mountain of hidden local government debt threatens to drag down China’s growth for years to come. Meanwhile Xi’s government has become steadily more

LToremark

Chatham House21 SeptArticle

Can Gulf Arab countries help break the deadlock over Trump’s Gaza peace plan?

Can Gulf Arab countries help break the deadlock over Trump’s Gaza peace plan? Expert comment LToremark 21 September 2026 Gulf Arab states increasingly view Israel as the main obstacle to progress on the peace plan – and may hope for an opening after Israel’s October elections. Almost a year after US President Donald Trump unveiled his 20-point peace plan for Gaza, which was adopted by both Israel and Hamas and paved the way for the release of all Israeli hostages, the peace process appears to have hit a wall. The two sides remain fundamentally divided over the sequencing of demilitarization and Israeli withdrawal. So far, Hamas has refused to give up its heavy weapons unless Israel halts all military operations and withdraws its forces from the parts of Gaza it currently controls – approximately 60 per cent of the strip – while Israel says it will not withdraw until Hamas disarms. Although President Trump continues to argue that the situation in Gaza is under control, his envoy Jared Kushner, who recently visited Israel, and the director-general of his Board of Peace, Nikolay Mladenov, have so far been unable to launch the second phase of the process. Related work The Iran war has left Gaza neglected In September, Kushner acknowledged that the task of demilitarizing Gaza was proving far more difficult than initially expected: ‘We are starting to understand the scope of the militarization of Gaza. It is beyond your comprehension’. In August, he had told Fox News that he expected Hamas to begin handing over its weapons in ‘ as few as 30 days ’. Meanwhile, the humanitarian sit

LToremark

Chatham House21 SeptArticle

Chatham House fellow gives evidence at UK parliament committee on global AI governance and risks

Chatham House fellow gives evidence at UK parliament committee on global AI governance and risks News release thilton.drupal 21 September 2026 Senior Research Fellow Isabella Wilkinson spoke to the House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee at a time when many are calling for greater regulation of AI in the light of emerging risks. Isabella Wilkinson, Senior Research Fellow with Chatham House’s Digital Society Programme, gave evidence on the global governance of AI to the UK House of Lords International Relations and Defence Committee on 16 September. Wilkinson outlined the main types of risk from AI: malicious risks, loss-of-control risks and systemic risks. Addressing the governance challenge posed by these risks, she said: ‘We’re facing a governance challenge because all of these risks are interlinked, so we have to be very strategic about how we design governance at multiple different levels. This is a multilateral challenge.’ Wilkinson said that interlinked governance challenges, including a dearth of trusted information about AI and ‘the lack of a crisis toolbox’ to deploy in the event of a crisis, had led to ‘quite a severe state of gridlock in multilateral AI governance.’ The committee was meeting in a week in which debates over the risks associated with AI featured prominently in public debate, following calls by tech leaders to slow the pace of the technology’s development. ‘We are in a moment of intense crisis and turbulence in multilateral AI governance. But as we’ve learned [from other areas of governance] … these conditions create a window of

thilton.drupal

Chatham House18 SeptArticle

The Director's Annual Lecture 2027

The Director's Annual Lecture 2027 12 January 2027 — 18:00 TO 19:00 GMT Anonymous (not verified) 18 September 2026 Chatham House and Online Join Chatham House Director and Chief Executive Bronwen Maddox for the 2027 Director’s Annual Lecture. Join Chatham House Director and Chief Executive Bronwen Maddox for the 2027 Director’s Annual Lecture. Bronwen Maddox, Director and Chief Executive at Chatham House, delivers her annual lecture.

Anonymous

Chatham House18 SeptArticle

‘Coupling without fusion’: Canada and Europe test a new kind of alliance

‘Coupling without fusion’: Canada and Europe test a new kind of alliance Expert comment jon.wallace 18 September 2026 The deeper relationship proposed by Carney and von der Leyen could send a powerful geopolitical message. But can agreement be reached without antagonizing EU candidate countries? There is something rather extraordinary about the geopolitical times we live in. They are making what seemed impossible yesterday possible today, and what once sounded laughable increasingly credible. This week’s proposals for closer integration between Canada and the EU undoubtedly belongs to that category. On 16 September, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen proposed making Canada the EU’s first ‘associate member’. The next day, Canadian prime minister Mark Carney used his address to the European Parliament to set out an unusually ambitious programme of economic and strategic integration. Canada and Europe, he argued , should cooperate across critical minerals, defence production, artificial intelligence and computing, energy, space and payments. They should move towards ‘seamless’ digital trade in non-agricultural goods and services. And they should expand opportunities for young Canadians and Europeans to live, work and study across the Atlantic. Canada also eyes access to the EU’s Horizon research programme. If the concept of associate membership is yet to be properly defined – starting with meaningful legal substance – Carney’s address gave it discernible geopolitical purpose. His argument rests on a lesson he has repeated since his Davos speech in January 2026:

jon.wallace

Chatham House17 SeptArticle

Imbalances are a feature of the global financial system, not a bug

Imbalances are a feature of the global financial system, not a bug Expert comment jon.wallace 17 September 2026 The current focus on ‘global imbalances’ is too easily used by policymakers as a smokescreen for their own domestic failings. Global imbalances are back on the international finance agenda this year, prompting a flagship G7 report and creating discord at the G20 finance minsters’ summit. Seemingly this focus on global imbalances is justified. China’s trade in goods surplus now alarms Europe’s leaders as much as it worries America’s. The US’s net liability to the world – the degree to which its overseas borrowing exceeds its overseas investments – reached an astonishing 70 per cent of US GDP in 2025. The last time global imbalances were this prominent was just ahead of 2008’s Global Financial Crisis. What a shame, then, that this focus is so misguided. Imbalances are a feature of the global financial system, not a bug. They arise from saving and investment decisions, allowing diversification and dispersing risk in the process. In truth, ‘global imbalances’ are not primarily a global phenomenon. They are simply the product of all the world’s domestic imbalances added up. And because foreign investment is more mobile than domestic investment, it is more likely to punish bad domestic policymaking by moving elsewhere. The result is to impose discipline – constraints – on political choices. There is a generous interpretation of the motives for the current focus on global imbalances. It is possible that simultaneous domestic reforms across the global economy would make f

jon.wallace

Chatham House17 SeptArticle

Corporate Leaders Series: Catherine Raw, Chief Development Officer at global resources company BHP

Corporate Leaders Series: Catherine Raw, Chief Development Officer at global resources company BHP 14 October 2026 — 09:00 TO 10:00 BST Anonymous (not verified) 17 September 2026 Chatham House Hear from Catherine Raw at BHP, the world’s largest mining company by market capitalization, on the forces reshaping global demand for resources. Hear from Catherine Raw at BHP, the world’s largest mining company by market capitalization, on the forces reshaping global demand for resources. Trade volatility, the energy transition and state intervention are reshaping demand for strategic resources. In this Corporate Leaders Series event, BHP Chief Development Officer Catherine Raw examines how capital, policy and supply chains are increasingly interconnected, and what effective leadership looks like as global demand continues to grow. This event discusses: What is driving global demand for copper, iron ore, steelmaking, coal and potash? How are trade and industrial policies reshaping resource investment decisions? What role can strategic partnerships play in strengthening supply chains? How should resource companies balance the energy transition with near-term cost pressures? What does effective global leadership look like in volatile markets? If you are not a corporate member of Chatham House but would still like to attend, please email the Conferences team to apply to attend.

Anonymous

Chatham House16 SeptArticle

The European agenda and UK–EU relations: a French perspective on a changing world

The European agenda and UK–EU relations: a French perspective on a changing world 24 September 2026 — 11:30 TO 12:30 BST Anonymous (not verified) 16 September 2026 Chatham House and Online How France views the current state of European affairs and the next phase of cooperation between the EU and the UK under the new Burnham government. How France views the next phase of cooperation between the EU and the UK under the new Burnham government As part of the UK in the World Programme’s new UK–EU series, join France’s Minister for Europe, Benjamin Haddad to examine the EU agenda and the future of UK–EU relations. The discussion will explore how Europe can strengthen cooperation, security and competitiveness in a changing geopolitical environment. This event will discuss: What is France’s perspective on the European agenda? How does the EU-UK relation fit into that agenda? What opportunities exist to deepen UK–EU cooperation a decade after Brexit? How does France view the future of the relationship between London and Brussels What major political, economic and security challenges remain? How can the UK and EU work more closely on European security and defence? What role can France and the UK play in strengthening Europe’s competitiveness and influence? What outcomes are realistic in the near term for UK–EU relations?

Anonymous

Chatham House15 SeptArticle

Putin is far from isolated. Europe must play him at the long game

Putin is far from isolated. Europe must play him at the long game Expert comment jon.wallace 15 September 2026 The SCO and BRICS summits indicate Russia retains sufficient value to China, India and other non-Western powers to pursue its war objectives. Europe needs to adjust to that reality. The past fortnight has seen President Vladimir Putin undertake plenty of summit diplomacy. Throughout he has shown no sign he is open to compromise on Russia’s war aims in Ukraine. On the contrary, escalation has accelerated. Europe seems inclined to read this increased aggression as a sign of desperation on Moscow’s part. But that is a miscalculation. In reality, the Kremlin’s strategy of blended diplomatic impassivity and calibrated escalation may be stronger than it looks. No backing down US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner spent more than three hours with Putin in Moscow on 5 September, discussing how to end the war. The Kremlin hailed the discussions as ‘highly useful’ but gave no indication that it was ready to relax its demands: Ukrainian territorial concessions and restrictions on Kyiv’s future security alignment. Days later, an offer by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to meet Putin at December’s G20 summit in Miami was rebuffed. Meanwhile, Russian attacks have intensified. On 13 September, a Russian drone struck railway infrastructure near Yahodyn, shortly after a train carrying Boris Johnson, former CIA director David Petraeus and others had passed through the area. Whether they were deliberately targeted remains unknown. What is certain is that the strike was part of Russ

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