DwayneThu, 15 Oct 2026
Addis Ababa and Asmara are edging closer to a direct conflict, which would cause further mayhem in the troubled Horn of Africa and the Red Sea basin. It is not too late to avert disaster.
British Prime Minister Andy Burnham told the U.K. House of Commons Monday that Iran's Revolutionary Guard was "almost certainly" behind the suspected plot to attack the RAF Fairford base where U.S. bombers were stationed. Why it matters: This was the first time the U.K. officially blamed Iran for the alleged planned attack . What he's saying: "I can confirm our assessment that it is highly likely to have been coordinated in Iran, almost certainly directed by the IRGC. We will not tolerate these threats on our soil," Burnham said. Driving the news: 10 days ago, the U.S. evacuated a dozen B-1 strategic bombers from RAF Fairford in response to intelligence indicating an Iranian drone attack. It would have been an unprecedented and brazen move by Iran against a U.S. base in Europe — with the potential to dramatically escalate the war in the Middle East. The decision to move the bombers came several days after British security forces arrested several dual British-Iranian citizens suspected of planning an attack on the base. It was unclear whether the people who were arrested were connected to the alleged planned drone attack or if they were planning a different attack. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel provided the U.K. with intelligence that pointed to a threat of an Iranian attack. State of play: British Foreign Secretary Ed Miliband said Monday that the Iranian ambassador was summoned to the foreign office in London to denounce the alleged Iranian plot. The other side: The Iranian ambassador to the UK, Seyed Ali Mousavi, told IRNA that Iran "categorically
Republicans already saddled with Trump's unpopular policies in the midterms now face another awkward choice: whether to back his diesel deal with a dictator many of them despise. Why it matters: The agreement President Trump struck with Russian President Vladimir Putin Friday is designed to ease the cost of living for U.S. consumers. But Republicans who pleaded for help with fuel prices now face a fresh dispute over Russia, with energy analysts questioning whether the deal will deliver the relief Trump is promising. The big picture: With three weeks until Election Day, Republicans are trying to answer voter anger while keeping up with a president whose proposed fixes keep becoming political liabilities of their own. Trump's decision to lock arms with Putin adds another complication. Driving the news: Weeks after signing a sweeping Russia sanctions law, Trump announced Friday that Russia would supply diesel to U.S. and global markets. The next day, Trump blamed Ukraine for soaring diesel prices and called for President Volodymyr Zelensky to be replaced, even as Russia continued attacking Ukrainian cities. Republicans who just supported squeezing Moscow have three options in the final sprint for control of Congress: defend Trump's reversal, break with him or stay quiet. Zoom out: The diesel deal packs some of the GOP's biggest liabilities into one decision: the Iran war's economic fallout, the party's split over Russia and a president determined to make the election about himself. The deal also reverses Trump's own pressure campaign. Last year, he slapped an extra 25% tariff
The Mecca Pact moves to collective defense, but its members will not fight the Houthis for each other. The post Houthi Strikes on Riyadh Test the Mecca Pact | Geopolitics Weekly appeared first on Geopolitical Monitor .
Tuesday, 20 October 2026 10am Washington, DC | 4pm Brussels | 5pm Tel Aviv Please register here if you would like to attend this online event.
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is pleased to announce a transformative $15 million gift from the Blavatnik Family Foundation to strengthen and expand the Blavatnik Internship Program. Including both endowment and current-use support, this generous commitment more than doubles the foundation’s original investment in the program and builds on its remarkable success. “We hope […]
Chasing China: How should the UK and EU respond to China’s competitive threat? 27 October 2026 — 18:00 TO 19:00 GMT Anonymous (not verified) 12 October 2026 Chatham House and Online Explore how the UK and EU can strengthen their industrial and technological competitiveness in response to China’s scale, speed and state-backed investment. Explore how the UK and EU can strengthen their industrial and technological competitiveness in response to China’s scale, speed and state-backed investment. China’s rapid innovation and strength in advanced manufacturing are intensifying competitive pressure on the UK and EU. The challenge is to protect sensitive technologies and supply chains, and to improve productivity, attract investment and build competitive industries of their own. This event examines the policy choices available to London and Brussels, from industrial investment and trade measures to research partnerships and economic-security tools. It also looks at how a more coordinated approach could deliver greater leverage without closing the door to beneficial engagement with China. This event discusses: How should the UK and EU respond to China’s technological and industrial prowess? Which sectors face the greatest competitive pressure from China? How can research security be strengthened while maintaining international collaboration? What balance should governments strike between openness, resilience and national security? Where should the UK and EU align on industrial policy and investment screening? What would a successful competitiveness strategy look like over the next de
Israel's election: What will it mean for Israeli democracy and society? 20 October 2026 — 14:00 TO 15:00 BST Anonymous (not verified) 12 October 2026 Online Ahead of a key election in Israel on the 27th October, experts assess the forces shaping the campaign and the domestic implications for both Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Ahead of a key election in Israel on the 27th October, experts assess the forces shaping the campaign and the domestic implications for both Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu. Since the formation of Benjamin Netanyahu’s coalition government, Israel’s politics, society and economy have undergone significant change. The question of national security has dominated the political agenda since the 7 October 2023 attacks by Hamas and Israel’s military offensive on Gaza. However, key domestic issues including accountability, the future of democratic institutions and the role of religion in the state are also on the ballot. The result could have lasting implications for Israel’s political system and broader social cohesion. This event discusses: What issues are shaping Israel’s election campaign? To what extent is the future of Israeli democracy on the ballot? What political scenarios could emerge after the vote? How could the result affect Israel’s economy and social cohesion? To what extent is the question of the conflict with Palestine being addressed by political candidates?
A September advance by the Iran-backed Houthi movement (Ansarallah) down the Red Sea coast has expanded the Yemen conflict, drawing several outside actors into the fighting. The Houthi seizure of territory astride the key Bab el-Mandeb Strait, through which nearly 10 percent of global trade passes, elevated the global significance of the Yemen conflict. The […] The post Outside Powers Respond to Instability in the Red Sea appeared first on The Soufan Center .
President Trump's announcement Sunday about an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine referred to a potential deal that includes each side stopping attacks on oil refineries — and he expects Volodymyr Zelensky to abide by it, a White House official said. The official said if attacks on oil refineries cease, a deal to stop hitting power plants and energy grids could come next. Why it matters: Trump appears to be singlehandedly trying to will a partial ceasefire into existence. But for now Russia hasn't accepted any kind of ceasefire — and Ukraine wants one that forbids attacks on power plants. Reality check: The "refinery for refinery" proposal, as the official dubbed it, is lopsided. A Ukrainian official told Axios that the country has a single oil refinery which the Russians have attacked multiple times and isn't fully functional. Russia, by contrast, has a vast network of refineries. "We import diesel and gas. What we need is for the Russians to stop attacking our electricity grid," the Ukrainian official said. "The Russians are thinking about" it, the White House official said. "We will know soon if they are ready." Case in point: Hours after Trump's announcement, Russia conducted strikes on power plants in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian media. What he said: Trump's Truth Social post sounded at first like a major breakthrough. "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" he wrote. It appears much more tenuous than that. Zelensky said the announced ceasefire "was news for me
President Trump claimed Sunday that Russia and Ukraine agreed to an " energy ceasefire " and will halt attacks on each other's energy facilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tells Axios the announcement "was news for me. But if Russians agree to an energy ceasefire, Ukraine will agree." Why it matters: An " energy ceasefire" would be a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough ahead of the winter. It remains unclear if Russia indeed agreed to stop the strikes. Trump made a similar announcement last month, but neither party confirmed that there was a deal. Both Russia and Ukraine continued attacking energy infrastructure. What they're saying: "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" Trump wrote on Truth Social. In a short interview after Trump's announcement, Zelensky told Axios, "If President Trump negotiated it with Putin, please tell us when the ceasefire begins. We are ready, and we will accept it." Catch up quick: The announcement follows days of escalating tensions between Trump and Zelensky over Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries. On Friday, Trump announced a deal to ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports in an effort to lower soaring fuel prices, infuriating Ukraine. On Saturday, Trump called for Ukraine to replace Zelensky , accusing him of refusing opportunities to end the war. Zelensky responded Sunday on ABC's "This Week," saying Ukraine would hold elections if Russia agreed to a 60-day ceasefire. He also said Ukraine was prepared to stop attacking Russian
A closer look at the impact of China’s currency on China’s export growth.
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) vowed Saturday to force a House vote to block Russian oil purchases, challenging President Trump's diesel deal with President Vladimir Putin. Why it matters: Trump has touted the deal as a way to lower fuel prices, but it could also provide revenue for Russia's war in Ukraine. Driving the news: Fitzpatrick, co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, said he would introduce the "Ronald Reagan Peace Through Strength Act" and force a vote through a discharge petition. "It will be forced to the Floor via discharge and it will pass overwhelmingly," Fitzpatrick wrote on X . Retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) tells Axios he has "already agreed" to sign the petition. Catch up quick: Trump said Friday Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel to U.S. and global markets, with more shipments to follow. Energy analysts are skeptical the additional diesel will meaningfully lower prices. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the deal "not fair and not honest," telling Axios it amounted to a gift to Putin. Trump called Saturday for Ukraine to replace Zelensky with a leader willing to reach a deal with Russia. The White House has not yet responded to Axios' request for comment about Fitzpatrick's bill. The big picture: Fitzpatrick is the latest Republican lawmaker to break with Trump in a high-profile way, as the party fights to keep control of Congress amid mounting disapproval of the president. Zoom out: Fitzpatrick is turning to a tactic lawmakers have increasingly used to bypass Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.): a discharge pet
President Trump called Saturday for Ukraine to replace President Volodymyr Zelensky with someone willing to make a deal with Russia to end the war. Why it matters: Trump's attack on Zelensky came after the Ukrainian president criticized his diesel deal with Russia and signals the most serious crisis between the two leaders since their February 2025 meeting exploded in front of cameras. Driving the news: Trump announced Friday he had reached a deal with Russia to lift sanctions to allow Russian diesel exports to the U.S. and the global energy market. Zelensky, who was surprised by the deal made behind Ukraine's back, attacked the move and told Axios it was "not fair and not honest" and was a "sign of weakness" by Trump and a "birthday gift" to Putin. A U.S. official told Axios later that Trump struck the diesel fuel deal after Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop attacking Russian oil refineries. What he is saying: Trump said Zelensky could have reached a deal with Russia many times "but chooses not to." "I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal," Trump told reporters Saturday. "… And I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president." He said he asked Zelensky to stop attacking Russian oil refineries and claimed Zelensky's actions harmed American farmers. "He better damn well stop," Trump said.
Poll after poll spells trouble for GOP candidates — in purple states and deep-red ones alike — but while Democrats see a blue wave coming, some Republicans see a polling mirage. Why it matters: Pollsters worry they're flying partly blind. Even a modest polling error could mean the difference between Republicans retaining control of Congress and President Trump facing Democratic majorities in both chambers. The big picture: Polling Trump voters has long been notoriously difficult. The polls underestimated Trump's support in 2016, 2020 and 2024. Midterm polling has been more accurate, though some still underestimated Republican support in 2022, notes Scott Keeter, senior survey adviser at Pew Research Center. Catch up quick: With less than a month until the midterms, the polls paint a bleak picture for Republicans. The House: Democrats lead Republicans 49.8%-41.9% in the RealClearPolling generic congressional ballot average. Cook Political Report projects Democrats will gain nine to 19 seats, enough to win a narrow majority. The Senate: Cook now sees a potential Democratic net gain of two to six seats. Democrats need four to take control, and Cook just moved the Kansas Senate race into its toss-up column. Trump: The president's approval rating stands at 37.6% in Cook's polling tracker . A recent Economist/YouGov poll found 35% approving and 60% disapproving of his performance. State of play: Research suggests Republicans have become somewhat less likely than Democrats to participate in telephone surveys, and response rates overall have plummeted since the late 1990s, per Pew
President Trump lashed out late Friday night after he once again did not win the Nobel Peace Prize he has openly coveted . Why it matters: The award is Trump's white whale, an honor he talks about frequently and believes he deserves. This year's prize went instead to a former judge of a court Trump has sanctioned and called "rogue" and "evil." Navi Pillay, the winner, reacted to the award by saying world leaders have a "legal obligation to protect human rights and refrain from war," according to the AP . What he's saying: " I know nothing about this woman, and neither does anyone else! In fact, to the best of my knowledge, no one ever heard of her other than the fact that she, very obviously, hates Israel. I don't know what the woman has done," Trump said in a Truth Social post of nearly 600 words that went up just before midnight on Friday. "I settled 8 Wars, with letters being sent from every President and Prime Minister from the countries that I helped to the Norwegian Nobel Committee, and I'm about to settle, or win, two more, Iran and, Russia/Ukraine," Trump wrote. "They're both happening at breakneck speed but, forget them, it's the 8 that I've already settled, any one of which, in particular, Pakistan and India, would be far more than necessary to win the Nobel Prize. In actuality, I should have won 8 Nobel Peace Prizes, not just 1." Between the lines: Pillay, this year's winner, is a former judge of the International Criminal Court and also the former UN High Commissioner for Human Rights. Nobel officials said she received the honor "for her efforts to promote peace
