Council on Foreign Relations
Concerns About Tinubu’s Health
As the next presidential election looms, anxiety about the Nigerian president’s physical condition is growing.
West Africa · Global politics
As the next presidential election looms, anxiety about the Nigerian president’s physical condition is growing.
West Africa · Global politics
Sánchez’s gamble: This ‘all-in’ election will have international impact Expert comment jon.wallace 5 October 2026 Announcing the election, Sánchez set himself in opposition to President Trump and Javier Milei as well as Spain’s populist right. Much will depend on the prime minister’s ability to rally a fragmented left. The decision by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez to call a snap election is a risky move, but he will have felt he had little choice. His decision fires the starting gun on a year of vital and polarized elections across Europe. The announcement is not entirely unexpected. Spain was required to hold an election by August 2027 anyway. And Sánchez’s multiparty coalition has looked fragile since it formed in July 2023: it has not passed a full budget since. In January, the government approved a decree that regularized the status of 500,000 undocumented migrants and asylum seekers – a move unusual among EU countries generally committed to tightening migration restrictions . In July, the Spanish enclave of Ceuta was overwhelmed by a surge of tens of thousands of migrants, leading to criticism of government policy from within Spain and abroad, including US President Donald Trump. This month, a new issue has arisen, as protests grow over housing affordability. The protests prompted the government to introduce emergency legislation, only to see the bill rejected by Spain’s Parliament late last week. This gave Sánchez his opening to call a general election, arguing that ‘to do more, we need to renew and broaden the support of the people’. What are Sánchez’s chances? Sánche
Europe · Global politics
The US tariff on India's Russian oil was always a bargaining chip, not a stand on principle. The post Trump’s India Tariffs over Russian Oil Were Never about Principle appeared first on Geopolitical Monitor .
Europe · Asia · North America · Oil & energy · Global politics
Despite a new textbook, an influx of Russian teachers and managers, and an end to the teaching of Ukrainian, the Kremlin is unlikely to have “reprogrammed” locals.
Europe · Defense · Global politics
Policy proposals on sovereign debt must both match the scale of the challenge and be implementable within existing political constraints.
Global politics
Nepal’s floods put the global loss and damage system to the test Expert comment jon.wallace 5 October 2026 Nepal’s recovery from August’s catastrophic glacial flood will test the efficiency of the UN’s Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage. It will also resurface questions about the responsibilities of the greatest carbon emitters. On 26 August 2026, a glacial disaster high in the Himalayas sent a wall of meltwater and debris tearing through Nepal’s Bhotekoshi and Rasuwa region at speeds of nearly 188 km per hour. The flood has claimed over 1400 lives, with thousands still missing. Nepal is experiencing the consequences of a warming cryosphere, with accelerated glacier melt that could undermine the long-term security of a water source on which millions of people depend. The country only contributes around 0.1 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Yet its people are on the front lines of climate change impacts, as glacial retreat reshapes the Himalayan landscape. Early estimates of the cost of reconstruction are $4 to 5 billion, around a tenth of Nepal’s GDP. Nepal’s government has appealed to the UN’s Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage (FRLD) for help. But that can only provide a fraction of the funds required. As a result, Nepal has raised the responsibility of the world’s largest carbon emitters and will bring the issue to the forefront of November’s COP31 climate summit in Turkey. In this respect, Nepal’s recovery will stress-test bigger questions: How far is it possible to establish whether climate change was a contributing factor to a disaster? Can internat
Asia · Global politics
On 16–17 September, SIPRI, IAI and UNTFHS convened a two-day dialogue in Rome on human security in Europe and the Mediterranean.
Europe · Defense · Global politics
Wednesday marks the third anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, an act from which experts can draw a straight line to the current U.S.-Iran war, and the strategic dead end the Trump team now faces in that conflict. The October 7 assault represented an attempt by Hamas, a key member of an […] The post The Region Still in Crisis Three Years after the October 7 Attack appeared first on The Soufan Center .
West & Central Asia · Defense · Global politics
West & Central Asia · Defense · Global politics
Members' Book Club: The history of Chatham House 12 November 2026 — 17:30 TO 18:30 GMT Anonymous (not verified) 4 October 2026 Chatham House and Online Join us for the second in the series of our new members’ exclusive Chatham House Book Club, on ‘Chatham House: The First Hundred Years’. Marking the publication of a new history of the Institute, this event explores why Chatham House was founded, how its work evolved and what its first century reveals about the future of independent international debate. Hear from editors, contributors, and current Chatham House staff on the history of the organisation that began life as the British Institute of International Affairs in 1920, and within a few short years had acquired a Royal Charter, a Rule and the magnificent London headquarters by which it would become known worldwide - Chatham House. This members’ exclusive Book Club event reflects on the Institute’s first century. Their accounts trace how research and in-person meetings responded to global political changes over decades. That history provides a lens on the pressures facing democratic societies and international cooperation today. This event discusses Why was the Institute founded in 1920 and what challenges did it address? How has Chatham House responded to major geopolitical shifts? Which achievements, tensions and personalities shaped its development? What does the book reveal about the Chatham House Rule and convening role? What does the Institute’s history suggest about its future relevance and impact? The Chatham House Book Club is a new space for members to explore
Europe · Global politics
CFR President Michael Froman reflects on the third anniversary of Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israel, and how the Middle East has changed since.
West & Central Asia · Defense · Global politics
As the U.S.-led Coalition withdraws, the Kurds’ reliance on Baghdad, and on themselves, will only increase.
West & Central Asia · Defense · Global politics
Factional struggles around the US president have left Europe at the mercy of competing foreign policy agendas. But European disunity only undermines European interests
Europe · West & Central Asia · North America · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics
In American slang, “in a stew” means to be in a difficult situation. Italians say pasticciaccio — a baked pasta dish — to describe an awful mess. Israelis prepare shakshuka, a delicious North African stew, but it can also mean a chaotic situation. The current situation in the Gulf is a shakshuka — a complicated […] The post A Shakshuka in the Gulf: U.S. Options in the Iran War appeared first on The Soufan Center .
West & Central Asia · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics
East Africa · Defense · Global politics
Fatima El Mansouri is the country’s first female prime minister. She’s also a privileged insider in a largely ceremonial position.
Africa · Global politics
Oil, gas and fuel prices are central to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, with Washington striving to lower them and Tehran to keep them high. With both sides determined to prevail, five market-shaping developments in particular could affect whether fighting ramps up or de-escalates.
West & Central Asia · Oil & energy · Global politics
North America · Global politics
North America · Global politics
