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Axios11 Oct

Trump claims Russia and Ukraine agree to energy ceasefire

President Trump claimed Sunday that Russia and Ukraine agreed to an " energy ceasefire " and will halt attacks on each other's energy facilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tells Axios the announcement "was news for me. But if Russians agree to an energy ceasefire, Ukraine will agree." Why it matters: An " energy ceasefire" would be a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough ahead of the winter. It remains unclear if Russia indeed agreed to stop the strikes. Trump made a similar announcement last month, but neither party confirmed that there was a deal. Both Russia and Ukraine continued attacking energy infrastructure. What they're saying: "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" Trump wrote on Truth Social. In a short interview after Trump's announcement, Zelensky told Axios, "If President Trump negotiated it with Putin, please tell us when the ceasefire begins. We are ready, and we will accept it." Catch up quick: The announcement follows days of escalating tensions between Trump and Zelensky over Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries. On Friday, Trump announced a deal to ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports in an effort to lower soaring fuel prices, infuriating Ukraine. On Saturday, Trump called for Ukraine to replace Zelensky , accusing him of refusing opportunities to end the war. Zelensky responded Sunday on ABC's "This Week," saying Ukraine would hold elections if Russia agreed to a 60-day ceasefire. He also said Ukraine was prepared to stop attacking Russian

Europe · North America · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics

Axios10 Oct

House Republican, invoking Reagan, moves to block Trump's Russia oil deal

Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.) vowed Saturday to force a House vote to block Russian oil purchases, challenging President Trump's diesel deal with President Vladimir Putin. Why it matters: Trump has touted the deal as a way to lower fuel prices, but it could also provide revenue for Russia's war in Ukraine. Driving the news: Fitzpatrick, co-chair of the Congressional Ukraine Caucus, said he would introduce the "Ronald Reagan Peace Through Strength Act" and force a vote through a discharge petition. "It will be forced to the Floor via discharge and it will pass overwhelmingly," Fitzpatrick wrote on X . Retiring Rep. Don Bacon (R-Neb.) tells Axios he has "already agreed" to sign the petition. Catch up quick: Trump said Friday Russia would immediately supply more than 300,000 tons of diesel to U.S. and global markets, with more shipments to follow. Energy analysts are skeptical the additional diesel will meaningfully lower prices. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky called the deal "not fair and not honest," telling Axios it amounted to a gift to Putin. Trump called Saturday for Ukraine to replace Zelensky with a leader willing to reach a deal with Russia. The White House has not yet responded to Axios' request for comment about Fitzpatrick's bill. The big picture: Fitzpatrick is the latest Republican lawmaker to break with Trump in a high-profile way, as the party fights to keep control of Congress amid mounting disapproval of the president. Zoom out: Fitzpatrick is turning to a tactic lawmakers have increasingly used to bypass Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.): a discharge pet

Europe · North America · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics

Axios10 Oct

Trump tells Ukraine to replace Zelensky over Russia fuel deal

President Trump called Saturday for Ukraine to replace President Volodymyr Zelensky with someone willing to make a deal with Russia to end the war. Why it matters: Trump's attack on Zelensky came after the Ukrainian president criticized his diesel deal with Russia and signals the most serious crisis between the two leaders since their February 2025 meeting exploded in front of cameras. Driving the news: Trump announced Friday he had reached a deal with Russia to lift sanctions to allow Russian diesel exports to the U.S. and the global energy market. Zelensky, who was surprised by the deal made behind Ukraine's back, attacked the move and told Axios it was "not fair and not honest" and was a "sign of weakness" by Trump and a "birthday gift" to Putin. A U.S. official told Axios later that Trump struck the diesel fuel deal after Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop attacking Russian oil refineries. What he is saying: Trump said Zelensky could have reached a deal with Russia many times "but chooses not to." "I suggest they get a new leader who can make a deal," Trump told reporters Saturday. "… And I think it's time for Ukraine to get a new president." He said he asked Zelensky to stop attacking Russian oil refineries and claimed Zelensky's actions harmed American farmers. "He better damn well stop," Trump said.

Europe · North America · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics

Axios10 Oct

U.S. official: Trump cut deal with Putin after Zelensky ignored his requests

President Trump decided to make a diesel fuel deal with Russia after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky ignored half a dozen U.S. requests to stop attacking Russian oil refineries, a U.S. official with direct knowledge told Axios. Why it matters: Trump's deal with Russian President Vladimir Putin sparked a new crisis with Ukraine and threatens to derail a new push by the Trump administration for a deal to end the war. "Zelensky is misreading the room. By continuing to hit refineries, he is eroding the good will that he has built with Trump over the last six months," the U.S. official said. Zelensky, in an interview with Axios after the announcement, said he was blindsided by the deal, which he called "not fair and not honest" and an unwarranted gift to Putin. Driving the news: Ukraine's strikes on Russian oil refineries in recent months were highly effective and caused an energy crisis in Russia. Russia imposed a ban on diesel exports in response, which added more pressure to global diesel markets under strain from the war in Iran. Zelensky told Trump and his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner that he was prepared to stop attacking Russian oil refineries if the Russians halted attacks on Ukrainian power plants. The U.S. official said Trump wanted Ukraine to unilaterally stop attacking Russian refineries because the strikes were contributing to high gas prices in America. Trump didn't see the attacks on refineries as equivalent to Russian strikes on Ukraine's power grid, the U.S. official said. Inside the room: During eight hours of talks in Miami on Friday, Witkoff

Europe · North America · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics

Axios9 Oct

Exclusive: Zelensky tells Axios Trump's diesel deal with Putin "not fair and not honest"

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told Axios in a phone interview on Friday that President Trump's decision to unilaterally lift sanctions on Russia and allow it to export diesel was "not fair and not honest." "You know, it looks like a happy birthday present for Putin. It looks absolutely terrible," Zelensky said in frustration, referring to the Russian president's birthday earlier this week. Why it matters: Trump's announcement, which came after a call with Putin, shocked Ukraine and many European governments and created a new crisis between the U.S. and its Western allies. During the 15-minute interview, Zelensky sounded exasperated and dismayed and even expressed a sense of betrayal by the news of the diesel deal. Trump was asked several times by reporters on Friday about Zelensky's criticism but declined to comment and said he was happy about the deal with Putin. Driving the news: Trump announced the deal with Putin as his envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner were meeting in Miami with the Ukrainian negotiating team along with senior diplomats from Germany, France, the U.K., the EU and NATO to discuss new U.S. ideas for ending the war. Zelensky said he spoke several days ago with Witkoff about the need to continue efforts to reach a diplomatic breakthrough before winter and the midterm elections. "Steve proposed to meet in Florida. And of course I accepted to go there and speak about the possibilities of negotiations. The Americans said they have some ideas and we agreed to come to discuss," Zelensky said. At no point during his talks with Witkoff and Kushner di

Europe · North America · Oil & energy · Global politics

Axios9 Oct

Trump announces major diesel deal with Putin, infuriating Ukraine

President Trump announced Friday that he's reached a deal with Russia to increase the supply of diesel to the U.S. and global markets — angering Ukraine, which called it a gift to Vladimir Putin in the midst of their war. Why it matters: The announcement, which includes a waiver on some U.S. energy sanctions against Russia, took place as Ukrainian and European diplomats arrived in Miami for talks on ending the war with Russia. What he's saying: "I have just concluded a highly successful discussion with President Vladimir Putin, of Russia, wherein it was agreed that Russia will immediately supply over 300,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel to the American and Global Marketplace, another 500,000 Tons during the month of November, and 1,000,000 Tons immediately thereafter," Trump wrote on Truth Social. Trump added that Russia will deliver," within a short period of time, 3,000,000 Tons of Diesel Fuel." Combine with oil coming out of the Strait of Hormuz, Trump wrote, "Diesel Prices for Americans and, indeed, the World, will be COMING DOWN, IN RECORD NUMBERS, AND FAST!" "Today, at President Trump's direction, the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) is immediately issuing a temporary general license to allow the supply of Russian diesel to the global market," the Treasury Department said in a statement. Friction point: Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky responded angrily to Trump's announcement, writing on X that any sanctions relief for Russia outside of a "lasting de-escalation agreement ... is an obvious weakness." "Gifts to Putin will not bring peace or any benefit to the civil

Europe · North America · Oil & energy · Global politics

Chatham House9 Oct

Nigeria’s economic outlook: Progress on reform and prospects for inclusive growth

Nigeria’s economic outlook: Progress on reform and prospects for inclusive growth 22 October 2026 — 13:00 TO 14:00 BST Anonymous (not verified) 9 October 2026 Chatham House and Online Hear from Nigeria’s Minister of Finance Hon. Taiwo Oyedele about reform, growth and the path to economic inclusion. Hear from Nigeria’s Minister of Finance Hon. Taiwo Oyedele about reform, growth and the path to economic inclusion. Shortly after taking office in 2023 President Bola Tinubu introduced Nigeria’s most significant economic reforms since 2007, including the removal of fuel subsidies and the decision to float the naira. While many economists argued that subsidy reform was overdue, the pace of change contributed to rising inflation and deeper pressure on household living standards. Although these measures are now credited with improving macroeconomic stability and investor confidence - Moody’s has revised Nigeria’s outlook to ‘positive’ from ‘stable’ citing its improved ability to withstand external shocks - the government faces growing questions about how reform can translate into more inclusive growth. This event discusses: How will Nigeria ensure the benefits of reform reach a broader share of society? How might security challenges affect Nigeria’s economic trajectory? What progress has been made since the removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira? How can the government address concerns over poverty, livelihoods and living costs? How will Nigeria maintain investor confidence amid global uncertainty? How is Nigeria preparing for the economic debate ahead of the 2027 p

West Africa · Oil & energy · Global politics

Carnegie Endowment9 Oct

"Digger" May Be the Most Influential Climate Movie Yet

Despite its flop at the box office, the film raises important questions for the climate community to answer.

North America · Oil & energy

Axios9 Oct

How the permitting bill could collapse

Congress has its best chance in years to pass sweeping permitting legislation, but a series of political and policy obstacles could derail the bipartisan Senate plan. Why it matters: Cutting hurdles for energy projects is a top priority for fossil fuels and renewables sectors, and major business groups more broadly. Here are five risks to a lame-duck deal: 👱‍♂️ President Trump himself. The White House says it supports the bill, but Trump is mercurial, so nothing is final until it's final. His administration's willingness — or not — to loosen the screws on wind and solar projects it's restricting could also sway the lame-duck politics and complicate efforts to win Democratic support. Flashback: Co-author Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) last month cited "unresolved" questions about Trump officials returning to "regular order" for renewables, but credited their "very reasonable" proposal. 🗳️ A big blue wave. Rep. Jared Huffman (D-Calif.), a senior House Democrat, has been arguing that Democrats will have more leverage next year. For now, there's little evidence that view is gaining traction among Democrats. The few definitive statements on the bill from lawmakers in both parties are supportive. But a strong Democratic showing in November could change that calculation. The big arguments against waiting: Dems won't have 60 votes even if they take the Senate, and Trump still needs to sign anything, limiting the prospects for a better deal next year. 🟩 Environmentalists. Groups with close ties to Dems — such as the Natural Resources Defense Council, League of Conservation Voters

North America · Oil & energy

CSIS9 Oct

Russia’s Turn to China Under Sanctions: Sanctions Decay, Substitution Elasticity, and the Challenge of Sustaining Pressure

Europe · East Asia · Oil & energy · Global politics

Axios8 Oct

Kushner, Witkoff to pitch "new ideas" to end Russia-Ukraine war

Presidential envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner will meet with Ukrainian negotiators and European officials in Miami on Friday to present "new ideas and proposals" to break the stalemate in the Russia -Ukraine war, U.S. and Ukrainian officials say. Why it matters: The Trump administration is hoping to reach a diplomatic breakthrough ahead of the midterm elections and before brutal winter weather grips Ukraine. One of the ideas is a partial ceasefire that halts attacks on energy infrastructure and grain shipments. While Ukraine has said it's willing to take that step, Russia has shown little willingness. "They are all nervous about the winter. It will be a tough winter if the war does not stop. So the U.S. is trying to mediate with the sides, with the goal of creating a unified proposal," a U.S. source said. Driving the news: Witkoff and Kushner visited Moscow and Kyiv in early September. Since then, they've been working with the Russians and Ukrainians on an updated peace initiative. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said at a press conference in Lisbon Thursday that the war is at a "stalemate." He stressed that the U.S. wants to prevent further escalation of fighting in the coming month and find a way to end the war. Behind the scenes: Witkoff and Kushner met with President Trump Thursday to present the latest U.S. proposal and receive his input ahead of the talks in Miami, which are expected to last two days, a U.S. official said. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and deputy national security adviser Mike Needham also attended the meeting. Zoom in: President Volodymyr Zel

Europe · North America · Oil & energy · Global politics

Council on Foreign Relations8 Oct

Another Hormuz? What to Know About the Houthi Threat to the Red Sea

The Yemen-based Houthis’ naval blockade against Saudi shipping and their battle with Saudi-backed Yemeni forces for control of the Red Sea’s critical Bab el-Mandeb Strait add a new dimension to the Iran war, with potentially major consequences for the region and the global economy.

West & Central Asia · Defense · Oil & energy