Why the US midterms are a rare foreign policy election
Why the US midterms are a rare foreign policy election Expert comment LToremark 15 October 2026 US voters are linking economic concerns to the Trump administration’s foreign policy choices. This is bad news for Republicans. Foreign policy rarely decides US elections. Conventional wisdom is that voters know little, and care less, about international affairs. Instead, they are driven by pocketbook issues, like the price of gas and groceries. As James Carville, an adviser to Bill Clinton, once observed : ‘it’s the economy, stupid’. But this year, the economy is foreign policy. There are two important exceptions to the rule that US voters don’t care about foreign policy – and they both apply this year. One, voters care about foreign affairs when an administration’s choices directly affect their daily lives. Two, voters care about what foreign policy choices reveal about a president’s competence as commander-in-chief. The upcoming midterms could therefore be a rare foreign policy election – of a kind not seen since 2006 when a backlash to George W. Bush’s handling of the Iraq war handed Republicans a ‘thumping’ defeat. With voters now feeling the pain of yet another war in the Middle East and Trump’s tariffs, history could repeat itself. The president seems aware of this risk, sending mixed signals about whether the elections will shape his handling of the war in Iran and striking a deal on diesel exports with Russia to ease the pain at the pump for voters. But perhaps the bigger question is what Trump does after the midterms, the last major electoral check on his presidency. Wa
