Thu, 15 Oct 2026
Recent threats on U.S. bases show just how unprepared the military is for drone warfare.
Neither U.S. nor Iranian leaders see a clear pathway for diplomacy to secure their core objectives, pushing both sides to posture and prepare for military escalation to levels not seen since the U.S.-Israeli campaign began. Tehran’s most pressing goal is to break what it acknowledges is a U.S. stranglehold on the Iranian economy, centered on […] The post U.S. and Iran Could Be Moving Toward Escalation appeared first on The Soufan Center .
Doing so would resurrect a subcommittee that Armed Services Democrats eliminated during President Donald Trump’s first term.
Ex-president Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov remains interested in politics, but his son Serdar, Turkmenistan’s current president, is becoming increasingly independent and willing to break with his father’s legacy. If their covert rivalry goes too far, both risk losing power.
Europe is facing rising populism internally as well as external pressures from Russia, China, Turkey, and the United States.
After the RAF Fairford incident, the UK should develop its homeland defence forces Expert comment thilton.drupal 7 October 2026 The threat of hybrid attacks from Iran and Russia means the UK should develop a force dedicated to protecting its bases and infrastructure at home. Finland and Poland offer lessons. The US’s withdrawal of its bombers from RAF Fairford, following a suspected terror plot against the base, has brought attention to how the UK defends its homeland military bases and other critical infrastructure. The UK government has insisted RAF Fairford is safe following the arrest of five men near the base on 27 September. President Donald Trump said the US withdrew its bombers from the base because of an unspecified ‘threat’ to the base. The investigation into the incident is still ongoing. Prime Minister Andy Burnham said that there are ‘strong indications that Iran played a part,’ which Iran’s embassy in London has rejected. In March, the UK approved a US request to use RAF Fairford for what it described as defensive strikes on Iran. Tehran responded that any base used for ‘aggression against Iranian territory’ would be a ‘legitimate target’ for its forces. Bases such as Fairford have their own protection forces that guard the perimeter. But incidents like this highlight the need for the UK to improve its wider homeland defence forces in the face of sustained pressure from hostile actors such as Iran and Russia. While the UK has specialist counter-terrorism units that can respond to incidents, and its armed forces and reserves can be deployed domestically to aid
A foiled hijacking and an approaching election have put Israel in a reflective mood three years after October 7, even as its security doctrine hardens and its international isolation grows.
There is a longstanding debate in the field of terrorism studies about whether terrorism “works.” In other words, does the use of terrorism and political violence help violent extremists achieve their goals and objectives, or does it merely serve to wreak havoc? On the third anniversary of the heinous Hamas terrorist attacks of October 7, […] The post Sinwar’s Carnage and the Domino Effect of the October 7 Hamas Terror Attacks appeared first on The Soufan Center .
This week, Rebecca Patterson bids adieu to cohost Sebastian Mallaby as he departs for San Francisco to undertake a new book that will give a behind-the-scenes perspective on Dario Amodei and Anthropic. In honor of the occasion, the hosts check in on the accuracy of their forecasts so far this year, from France’s bond market […]
We Discuss: Mentioned on the Episode: “Executive Order 13848: Imposing Certain Sanctions in the Event of Foreign Interference in a United States Election,” The White House “Two RT Employees Indicted for Covertly Funding and Directing U.S. Company That Published Thousands of Videos in Furtherance of Russian Interests,” U.S. Department of Justice
How has China imported less oil amid major supply shocks and war in Iran, and what does it mean?
Economic recovery has brought Sri Lanka a modicum of stability, but domestic strains and great-power rivalry could test how long it lasts.
Conflicts in the Middle East and the Horn of Africa Have Become Inseparable
Oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded, fueling claims that the United States is winning its war with Iran. But the Strait of Hormuz remains treacherous, Tehran isn’t any closer to accepting Washington’s terms, and the costs of the conflict are continuing to climb on both sides.
Wednesday marks the third anniversary of the October 7 Hamas attack on Israel, an act from which experts can draw a straight line to the current U.S.-Iran war, and the strategic dead end the Trump team now faces in that conflict. The October 7 assault represented an attempt by Hamas, a key member of an […] The post The Region Still in Crisis Three Years after the October 7 Attack appeared first on The Soufan Center .
CFR President Michael Froman reflects on the third anniversary of Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attacks on southern Israel, and how the Middle East has changed since.
