Articles

Axios14 Oct

Ukraine's Starlink restrictions raise suspicions of Musk, Trump retaliation

The rupture between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky over last week's diesel deal deepened Wednesday after an Elon Musk -owned satellite system used by Ukraine unexpectedly restricted service — undercutting Ukraine's fight against Russia. Why it matters: The Ukrainian military uses SpaceX's Starlink satellite communications system to control and operate its reconnaissance and intercept drones. When it doesn't operate at full capacity, Ukraine's ability to gather intelligence, use interceptor drones and conduct long-range strikes against Russia is impeded. Service was partially restored on Wednesday, but Ukrainian officials were still searching for answers about why the service was throttled and who was responsible. The limitations came days after a new crisis erupted between the U.S. and Ukraine over Trump's agreement to lift sanctions on Russian oil sales. Zelensky criticized the move, then Trump called for Ukraine to elect a new president. A senior U.S. official said the Trump administration had nothing to do with the alleged Starlink service constraints. But Ukrainian officials remain suspicious. Driving the news: Ukrainian officials said SpaceX imposed the restrictions Tuesday night. The system turned off, they said, when a drone exceeded 160 kph. In some cases, it disconnected when the speed went over 80 kph. The Starlink restrictions came several hours after the Ukrainian military did not receive an early warning about a Russian ballistic missile attack. Ukrainian officials said the U.S. has provided such alerts over the last several years as

Europe · North America · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics

Axios14 Oct

AI tools are aiding would-be spies

AI tools are now exacerbating a largely hidden problem that frontier AI companies have been contending with for years: the risk that employees will exploit their access to spy on their employers. Why it matters: The same AI tools that companies are racing to release can also help people plan crimes and develop the technology to carry them out, creating another security headache for the companies building them. Driving the news: Federal prosecutors charged Abdulrahman Alfozan, a Saudi national who has been an OpenAI engineer since July 2025, with allegedly attempting to intercept private conversations at OpenAI. Around Sept. 30, the company found a "surreptitious audio recording device" that was plugged into a USB port in the back of a television in an executive conference room. OpenAI said in a post on X that it used its own AI models to help "understand the device and where it had come from." Zoom in: Investigators allege Alfozan used AI tools to research company meeting rooms and develop recording equipment, according to an FBI affidavit . Alfozan used a "productivity agent" to ask basic information about OpenAI's offices, the documents say. Those queries included: "What meeting was this presented at and when was it record?," "List meeting rooms in (company) that are 6+", and "can you list today's meeting in this room." Investigators also said that an AI chatbot account tied to his spouse asked the model to build a "continuous audio recorder" and to add "browser access an controls," as well as encrypt the memory card where the recordings were saved. The complaint didn't s

North America · Cybersecurity

Axios14 Oct

Exclusive: White House probes claims of missing Kennedy Center money in "MAGA blood feud"

President Trump has directed his White House counsel to examine explosive allegations dropped on him Friday in the Oval Office: Former Trump attorney Alina Habba told the president that another one of his top advisers — former Kennedy Center leader Ric Grenell — failed to deposit a multimillion-dollar donation that her billionaire husband made to the center a year ago, according to four senior administration officials and three insiders briefed on the controversy. Grenell denied the accusations as "absurd" and a "lie." Habba and her husband, Turhan Mildon, declined to comment through a spokesperson. Why it matters: The extraordinary row between the two top-tier presidential advisers and former allies provides a rare and acrimonious behind-the-scenes glimpse into the intersection of power, influence and money in Trump's Washington. The total value of the contribution in question: nearly $6 million, White House sources said Habba told them. A senior administration official cautioned that "these are only allegations. We don't know if they're true. This could be a misunderstanding." Said another: "POTUS doesn't want to deal with this. Of course, he's concerned. But if there is missing money, this is a big, big problem." Just a few months ago , Grenell was friends with Mildon and Habba. But he was notably absent from their $10 million wedding that was attended by Trump world officials, power brokers and luminaries last month. "This is the ultimate MAGA blood feud," said one Trump world insider with knowledge of the conflict. Zoom in: The dispute grew out of a friendship between

North America · Global politics

Axios14 Oct

Americans are losing faith in their fellow voters

Data: Gallup ; Chart: Axios Americans' trust in their fellow citizens' democratic judgment has fallen to its lowest recorded level in more than five decades, according to a new Gallup survey. The big picture: Americans' growing distrust of political leaders and institutions now extends to one another, with Democrats and Republicans showing similar levels of skepticism. By the numbers: 51% of U.S. adults have a great deal or fair amount of trust in Americans as a whole to make democratic judgments, per Gallup. That's the lowest reading since Gallup began tracking the measure in 1974. The distrust cuts across party lines: 53% of Democrats, 51% of Republicans and 49% of independents trust Americans' ability to make democratic decisions. Flashback: Trust stood at 86% in 1976 and 78% in both 2002 and 2005. Trust has stayed below 60% since 2018, according to Gallup. State of play: Americans have more trust in their local government (67%) and state government (55%) than in their fellow citizens' democratic judgment (51%). The survey also found that 42% of Americans trust politicians who hold or seek public office, while 33% trust the news media. Zoom out: Americans' confidence in major U.S. institutions, including Congress, the presidency and the banking system, has also fallen to historically low levels. Methodology: Gallup surveyed 1,000 U.S. adults by landline and cellphone Sept. 1–17, 2026; the weighting-adjusted margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

North America

Axios14 Oct

New inflation warning sign

America's inflation problem is becoming harder to contain, with new evidence Wednesday that price pressures are extending beyond the war-related energy shock rattling the global economy . Why it matters: Inflation is squeezing household budgets and dimming hopes for relief. It is also increasing the prospect that the Fed will have to raise interest rates further. What they're saying: "Higher energy costs are beginning to seep into broader services prices, increasing the risk that this inflation burst will persist," Fitch Ratings economist Olu Sonola wrote in a note. The Consumer Price Index report "stands out as the first of the year in which price pressure appeared to be showing up in most corners of the consumption basket at once," Glenmede's Jason Pride wrote. By the numbers: The CPI rose 0.6% in September from the prior month, accelerating from August's 0.4% increase. The index increased 3.7% in the 12 months through September, compared with 3.4% in the prior month. Gasoline prices surged 9% in September, accounting for more than half of the monthly jump in consumer prices. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, advanced 0.3% for the second consecutive month. The annual rate accelerated to 2.6% from 2.4%. The intrigue: Over the past three months, core CPI has risen at a 3.4% annualized rate, up notably from 2% in August — a sign that underlying inflation pressures are strengthening. Inflation was stubborn in parts of the services economy that are less directly exposed to the energy price surge. Shelter costs accelerated last month, rising 0.4%, while used car price

North America · Oil & energy

Chatham House14 Oct

After Trump’s Russian diesel deal, will Europe give Ukraine the support it needs?

After Trump’s Russian diesel deal, will Europe give Ukraine the support it needs? Expert comment jon.wallace 14 October 2026 The new row between Washington and Kyiv must not distract Europe’s leaders from the urgent matter at hand: how to sustain Ukraine’s economy through the winter. An intervention by President Donald Trump this week has once again created problems for Ukraine’s war effort. The president’s deal with Moscow, which could see millions of barrels of Russian diesel released to global markets, was condemned by Democrats and even some prominent Republicans in the US. Trump openly framed the deal as an effort to secure ‘Lower prices for Americans’ as midterm elections approach in November. It is uncertain that the deal will do much to swing votes back to the president’s party. But it has created another open dispute between Trump and President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – at precisely the moment when Ukraine needs renewed, focussed support from its allies. A mounting Russian assault Recent weeks have seen a noticeable shift in Russia’s war strategy. Some had expected Putin to order a new wave of mobilization and a renewed offensive in the Donbas. Instead, he has moved to intensify Russia’s ballistic missile and drone campaign, with the aim of breaking Ukraine’s economy. There has been a marked uptick in attacks on ports, grain storage and shipping, seemingly to block Ukrainian agricultural exports. Key bridges across the River Dnipro in Kyiv have been hit. So have railways across the country. And attacks have continued on Ukraine’s energy grid (despite the ‘ energy cease

Europe · North America · Defense · Oil & energy · Global politics

Council on Foreign Relations14 Oct

The Role of the International Criminal Court (ICC)

The International Criminal Court was created to bring justice to the world’s worst war criminals, but debate over the court still rages.

Global politics

Geopolitical Monitor14 Oct

India’s Bid to Broker an Energy and Black Sea Truce in Ukraine

Kyiv calls India’s truce plan the broadest of four on the table. Moscow says it covers only part of a settlement. The post India’s Bid to Broker an Energy and Black Sea Truce in Ukraine appeared first on Geopolitical Monitor .

Europe · Asia · Oil & energy · Global politics

Axios14 Oct

Social Security recipients will see rise in monthly payments next year

Data: Social Security Administration; Chart: Neil Irwin/Axios Social Security recipients will see the largest rise in their monthly payments in four years in January, with a 3.6% cost-of-living adjustment. Driving the news: The Social Security Administration announced the 2027 COLA adjustment for 76 million recipients of retirement and disability benefits, which by law is calculated based on the Consumer Price Index for the July-through-September quarter. That will increase the average retiree's benefits by $900 a year, or $75 a month. The agency also said that the cutoff for Social Security taxes will rise to $192,300 in 2027, from $184,500 this year. Income above that threshold is not subject to payroll tax. How it works: The adjustment is, by statute, determined by the year-over-year change in CPI for the third quarter. Thus, the September data released this morning was the final input needed to calculate the adjustment. Between the lines: The adjustment will mean more nominal income for seniors and disability recipients, amounting to a mild fiscal stimulus come January. However, it also accelerates Social Security's looming fiscal problems, with its trust fund scheduled to expire in six years. The most recent projections issued by the program's trustees assumed a 0.9 percentage point lower COLA for 2027, the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget notes.

North America

Chatham House14 Oct

The Yemen war is not just Saudi Arabia’s problem. It’s the Gulf’s too

The Yemen war is not just Saudi Arabia’s problem. It’s the Gulf’s too Expert comment thilton.drupal 14 October 2026 The renewed conflict in Yemen exposes the limits of Saudi Arabia’s military options and the vulnerabilities of the Gulf states. A unified Gulf Cooperation Council strategy on Yemen and a credible political settlement between Yemenis are needed. The Yemen conflict has escalated significantly in recent weeks. Houthi strikes on airports in Riyadh, Abha and Dammam have killed at least 20 people and injured hundreds. Saudi oil infrastructure has also been attacked. Within Yemen, renewed fighting following a Houthi offensive around the strategic Bab al-Mandab Strait has brought return to full-scale war. The escalation is an alarming reminder of the 2015 Saudi-led intervention in Yemen. This came after the Iran-backed Houthis seized the Yemeni capital Sanaa in September 2014 and ousted the internationally recognized government from power. More than a decade later, the Houthis remain entrenched and clearly emboldened, while Yemen’s government is fragmented. Prospects for a political settlement currently seem remote. Since the UN-brokered truce in April 2022, Saudi Arabia has sought to disengage militarily from Yemen and pursue a negotiated settlement with the Houthis. Talks gained momentum in 2023, but the Houthis’ involvement in the Gaza war, including attacks on Red Sea shipping and Israel, disrupted the political process. US president Donald Trump’s intensive bombing campaign against the Houthis led to a separate US-Houthi ceasefire in May 2025. But it did not adva

West & Central Asia · Defense · Oil & energy

SIPRI14 Oct

Military spending in Russia’s draft federal budget for 2027 to 2029

An examination of what Russia’s draft budget for 2027–29 reveals about its military spending intentions.

Europe · Defense

Council on Foreign Relations14 Oct

Major Richard S. Heyser’s U-2 Mission Discovers Soviet Missiles in Cuba

A U.S. Air Force reconnaissance flight photographed evidence that the Soviet Union was installing nuclear-armed ballistic missiles in Cuba, touching off the Cuban Missile Crisis.

South & Central America · North America · Defense · Global politics

Brookings14 Oct

Reforming regulation: A proposal to end unsound cost-benefit analysis requirements for tax and transfer rules

North America

Axios14 Oct

Inflation heats up as gas prices surge

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics ; Chart: Courtenay Brown/Axios U.S. inflation picked up in September as soaring energy prices added to already stubborn price pressures, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Why it matters: The latest Consumer Price Index shows that the inflation fight is far from over — and makes further Federal Reserve interest rate hikes more likely as Americans struggle with higher costs. By the numbers: CPI rose 0.6% in September from the prior month, with the annual inflation rate at 3.7%, the government said. That compares with a 0.4% monthly increase and a 3.4% annual rate in August. Core prices, which exclude volatile food and energy costs, gained 0.3% on the month, compared with a similar monthly gain in August. In the 12 months through September, core CPI rose 2.6%, up from 2.4% the prior month. Zoom in: The latest figures capture the toll of the Middle East war on American consumers as disruptions to global energy supplies push up fuel prices. Gasoline prices spiked 9.1% in September after climbing 3.9% in August, when they accounted for more than a third of the monthly increase in consumer prices. Prices for shelter, one of the largest components of the index, increased 0.4%, compared with a 0.3% gain in August. Food prices were flat, compared with a slight 0.1% increase the previous month. Zoom out: The surge in fuel prices has prompted extraordinary measures from the Trump administration, particularly as soaring diesel costs threaten to push up prices for goods transported across the country . President Trump temporarily eased restrictions

North America · Oil & energy

Carnegie Endowment14 Oct

In the Kremlin’s AI Propaganda Blitz, the Noise Is the Signal

Russia’s AI-driven propaganda campaigns operate in a fragmented, chaotic, and often illogical manner. That’s not necessarily a problem for the Kremlin, though: It’s much easier to mimic genuine public debate that way.

Europe · Cybersecurity

Chatham House14 Oct

Chatham House Debates: The world is on the verge of a global financial crisis

Chatham House Debates: The world is on the verge of a global financial crisis 24 February 2027 — 17:00 TO 18:00 GMT Anonymous (not verified) 14 October 2026 Chatham House A moderated debate, under the Chatham House Rule, on the motion: “The world is on the verge of a global financial crisis,” exploring arguments for and against the proposition. A moderated debate, under the Chatham House Rule, on the motion: “The world is on the verge of a global financial crisis,” exploring arguments for and against the proposition. Financial crises are often described as impossible to predict, but obvious in retrospect. Despite repeated efforts by regulators, governments and central banks to strengthen the resilience of the global financial system, concerns persist over rising debt levels, geopolitical shocks, asset market valuations and the ability of policymakers to respond to future turbulence. This Chatham House Debate will examine whether the global economy is heading towards a period of significant financial instability, or whether the lessons learned from previous crises have made the system more resilient. Under the Chatham House Rule, participants will hear arguments both for and against the proposition before contributing their own perspectives on the risks, vulnerabilities and uncertainties facing the global economy. This debate will cover: Are current economic conditions creating the foundations for a global financial crisis? Which risks pose the greatest threat to financial stability? Have governments, regulators and central banks made the global financial system more resilie

Global politics

Modern War Institute14 Oct

Dispatch from Killhouse: Ukraine’s Lessons for US Army Drone Training

Inside a bunker, a pilot operates a first-person-view drone, unable to see the aircraft directly. A navigator plots a grid and helps search a degraded video feed. Somewhere in the […]

Europe · North America · Defense

Axios14 Oct

Apple bets AI can finally make us want a smart home

Apple's big new hardware bet for the AI era is here, and it's a ... smart display? Why it matters: Cue the time machine and let's head back to 2014, when Amazon's Alexa shocked the tech world and led us to imagine a Jetsons-style home would be ours in the near future. It wasn't, but Apple believes it could come soon. The iPhone maker is betting that modern AI can finally make good on that vision, unveiling a slew of new smart home devices Tuesday. Between the lines: While the smart home has largely failed to live up to its promise, modern AI could help address its biggest shortcoming: getting devices to just work without requiring users to become amateur IT experts. Apple's new products emphasize easy setup and integration with its existing ecosystem, while AI could help diagnose problems and coordinate devices. "The capabilities that AI would bring in helping make sure that these devices can solve their own problems and work together is really interesting to me," Paul Gagnon, a vice president at market research firm Circana, told Axios. Driving the news: Apple's announcements Tuesday included a new smart display, a revamped speaker, an updated streaming device and a collection of connected home accessories developed with partners. HomeView: Apple's new $299 smart display features a 7-inch screen and an AI-powered Siri that can respond to requests, control connected devices and recognize different household members to deliver personalized information. It will ship next month and comes in two versions, one that can hang on a wall and the other a tabletop device reminiscent o

North America

Axios14 Oct

AI's extreme heat challenge is moving from prediction to protection

Cities and researchers are using AI to map and predict extreme heat risk, but new research suggests it's used far more to identify where people are in danger than to help officials respond. Why it matters: As climate change intensifies extreme heat, better predictions won't protect vulnerable communities unless governments can turn them into action. U.S. deaths associated with high temperatures rose 53% from an annual average of 2,670 in 2000–2009 to more than 4,000 in 2010–2020, according to a 2025 Yale study . Driving the news: A study published in Climate Risk Management examined existing research on how AI and machine learning are being used to manage extreme heat. Of the research papers reviewed, 98.4% focused on prediction and 59.2% on prevention. That's compared with just 10.4% on response, 3.2% on recovery and 1.6% on preparedness — a disparity the authors call a "research-to-implementation gap." The research is heavily focused on using AI to forecast dangerous heat and identify who's at risk, with far less attention on how it can help officials decide what to do next. "Where AI can actually add value is where prediction is central to the decision-making, and that's in scale or providing more granularity," said Karishma V. Patel, a RAND policy researcher who co-authored the study. State of play: Turning sophisticated heat predictions into government action requires more than advanced models. Cornell researcher Jennah Gosciak told Axios that having "robust data systems" that can ingest data from a variety of sources and then make it usable to practitioners "is most o

North America

Axios14 Oct

Exclusive: AI safety money floods into political races

Advocates for AI safety and regulation are emerging as a force in U.S. elections, spending nearly $50 million this election cycle on candidates who favor regulation, a new analysis shared exclusively with Axios shows. Why it matters: The safety spending points to the unusual power dynamics in the AI race, where researchers shape policy and regulation in ways that differ at times from the priorities of the companies where they work. The researchers add to the advocacy and giving of an array of AI safety groups that have been well-funded for years, including from Coefficient Giving, a philanthropy with close ties to many top AI executives, especially at Anthropic. Driving the news: AI safety groups and individual donors have spent $48 million this cycle on Democratic and Republican races, according to new figures shared first with Axios. That includes donations from researchers, such as OpenAI's Juan Felipe Cerón Uribe and Redwood's Aryan Bhatt. It also includes Guardrails Alliance, a tech-worker-backed AI safety group that has raised $11.7 million between its super PAC and 501(c)(4). The big picture: Taking AI industry money has grown complicated due to viral warnings of catastrophic AI risk from the very same industry developing it and data center NIMBYism mobilizing communities in blue and red districts alike. OpenAI president Greg Brockman pulled a planned second $25 million donation from Leading the Future, a super PAC backed by tech execs and investors, in part because of an internal revolt at OpenAI. Forces favoring AI acceleration — who earlier in the year appeared to

North America · Global politics