On January 1, 2027, the tenth Secretary-General of the United Nations (UN) will take the oath of office. António Guterres will be stepping down after a ten-year term, leaving the 81-year-old institution at a time when its role is being re-evaluated both from within and without. The process for selecting his successor is now in its final weeks.
Created in the aftermath of the Second World War, the UN’s mission, as the first sentence of its Charter states, is “to save succeeding generations from the scourge of war.” Peacemaking, human rights protections, development, and international law constitute its primary activities. Today, these goals have proven elusive. Wars in Ukraine, Iran, and Gaza continue. Devastating humanitarian crises persist in Gaza, Sudan, Yemen and elsewhere. Escalating threats posed by climate change, AI, displaced persons, and surging geopolitical tensions are ever present.
The gap between the UN’s founding mission and the current moment has not gone without notice, earning critiques of its “impotence” and “irrelevance.” As former Council on Foreign Relations president Richard Haass put it: “The UN reflects the world much more than leads the world.”
Candidates to succeed Guterres are nominated by one or more member countries and are required to present a vision statement. Prior to a formal vote by the Security Council, a series of anonymous, closed-door straw polls take place in which the Security Council’s 15 members cast votes indicating whether they “encourage,” “discourage,” or have “no opinion” as to each candidate. The final, formal vote requires nine votes and that no veto be cast by any of the five permanent members of the Security Council. The vote then goes to the General Assembly. If the candidate is not approved, the process reverts to the Security Council.
Seven individuals are currently in the running for Secretary General. Whoever is chosen faces the challenge of restoring confidence in the globe’s premier multilateral body. All of the candidates bear prestigious credentials and a wealth of administrative and diplomatic experience. Four are from Latin American countries. Three are from African countries. Five have previously held UN positions. Four are women, and three are men. If a woman is selected, she would be the first female Secretary-General. Each of the candidates is firm in their resolve to bring about reform, and each has outlined their priorities and promises.
Ecuadorian politician and diplomat Ivonne A-Baki, age 75, has served as Ambassador to the United States, France and Qatar. Baki was the first female Ecuadorian representative to the UN and served as Ecuador’s Minister of Industries and Productivity and as President of the Andean Parliament. She seeks to undo the “frozen” state of the UN, to “renew” the institution by acting as “peacemaker” rather than “caretaker,” focusing on prevention, conservation and sustainable development, and addressing the “unfair imbalance” caused by the “exclusion of entire regions” from permanent membership in the Security Council.
María Fernanda Espinosa Garcés, age 62, also from Ecuador, was the first Latin American woman to hold the position of President of the UN General Assembly and has served as Foreign Minister and Defense Minister of Ecuador. Espinosa identifies five pillars necessary for transforming the UN, including “peace and security, development, digital and energy transformation, closing the delivery gap, and rebuilding credibility.” Emphasizing “peace and prevention,” she seeks to enhance the UN’s “universal legitimacy, political neutrality, and convening power to bring every relevant voice to the same table,” with conversations that are “global, inclusive, and consequential.”
Rafael Mariano Grossi from Argentina, age 65, has served as director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) since 2019. He was Ambassador to Austria and the Argentine permanent representative to the UN office in Geneva. Grossi pledges to restore the UN to its mission of providing peace and security and to ensure that human rights are “integrated into broader efforts for peace and development.” Grossi touts “realistic solutions” and “global partnerships”. In his words, “The world still needs the United Nations but it must be a United Nations that works.”
At 53, the youngest of the candidates, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett has served as Guyana’s permanent representative to the UN since 2020. Prior to that, Rodrigues headed the Food and Agriculture Organization’s branch at the UN. Her governmental positions at home include Minister of Amerindian Affairs and Minister of Foreign Affairs, Foreign Trade and International Cooperation. Her vision statement calls for the UN to reassert the indispensability of multilateralism and to preserve human rights and human dignity as central to the UN’s work.
Macky Sall, age 64, served as the President of Senegal and as Chairperson of the African Union. Acknowledging the “grande incertitude” of the current moment, Sall’s pledge to restore the “confidence” and “relevance” of the UN rests upon three fundamental pillars for the organization to focus upon in order to realize its “immense potential.” These include the “integration of peace, security, development and prosperity,” the strengthening of multilateralism and the modernizing of UN governance structures.
Olara Otunnu, age 76, the oldest candidate, served as President of the Uganda People’s Congress and as Minister of Foreign Affairs. From 1980 to 1985, he was Uganda’s Permanent Representative to the UN, and in 1981 he became President of the UN Security Council. Otunnu was formerly UN Under-Secretary-General and Special Representative for children and armed conflict. Otunnu seeks to offer a ray of “hope and great promise” by envisioning the current moment as an “opportunity to reinvent and to renew and to give the United Nations a new lease on life.” He pledges to “give immediate priority to the ending … the major conflicts” across the globe and lists ten priorities, ranging from protecting women and children, to addressing climate change and AI, to connecting “the Global” to the “Community” and enhancing cooperation between the UN and regional entities. Otunnu concludes his vision statement with a prayer from St. Francis of Assisi.
Rebeca Grynspan Mayufis, age 70, is the former Vice President of Costa Rica. Grynspan headed the UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) office until beginning her campaign for Secretary General. Grynspan previously served as the Secretary General of the Ibero-American General Secretariat. Acknowledging that “across the world, trust in the UN is waning,” she identifies her goal as restoring that trust with creative and courageous diplomacy, the incorporation of new tools provided by AI, a revived attention to WMDs and new technologies, an unwavering commitment to collective security, and an emphasis on accountability and transparency.
Five straw polls have taken place to date, most recently on October 7. Grynspan came out on top for the fourth time with nine “encourage” votes, six “discourage” votes, and no “no opinion” votes. Her results were weaker than the prior poll, and it is unknown whether or not any of the six “discourage” votes were cast by a permanent member of the Security Council and would constitute a veto.
No date has yet been set for the Security Council’s formal vote.
Karen J. Greenberg is a Senior Visiting Fellow at The Soufan Center, focusing on national security, terrorism, and legal issues, including a focus on accountability and the rule of law in counterterrorism and national security efforts.
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