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Council on Foreign Relations

5 October 2026

More Oil, Same War: Why Increased Exports Aren’t a Sign of Iran’s Imminent Defeat

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Oil exports from the Middle East have rebounded, fueling claims that the United States is winning its war with Iran. But the Strait of Hormuz remains treacherous, Tehran isn’t any closer to accepting Washington’s terms, and the costs of the conflict are continuing to climb on both sides.

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