As all eyes are on US President Donald Trump’s efforts to pressure Russia and Ukraine not to strike each other’s oil refineries, other actors are also seeking to persuade Moscow and Kyiv to freeze the conflict, at least partially. While Turkey and Egypt are reportedly engaged in dialogue with the Kremlin over a maritime ceasefire, India seems to be involved in broader discussions aimed at achieving a more comprehensive cessation of hostilities.
New Delhi has reportedly proposed a three-part truce between Russia and Ukraine that would stop attacks on energy facilities and other infrastructure, ensure the continued flow of grain and energy through Black Sea ports, and end attacks on commercial ships. The proposal, conveyed to Ukrainian officials during External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s visit to Kyiv in September, goes beyond separate ceasefire initiatives put forward by Turkey, Egypt, and the United States and seeks to address both infrastructure and maritime security while maintaining vital commodity flows.
“We have four proposals. The broadest is India’s proposal. We are ready for an energy and Black Sea ceasefire, but only in this combination,” Ukrainian Foreign Minister Andrii Sybiha said, adding that an energy ceasefire would mean a complete halt to strikes on all energy facilities, including port infrastructure.
The remarks suggest that Kyiv is open to New Delhi’s broader diplomatic initiative. Although the Kremlin also welcomed India’s efforts, Moscow described the plan as “addressing only one specific aspect of a potential settlement.” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov also echoed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s assessment that there were currently “no prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the war,” arguing that the conditions for negotiations were “not yet in place.”
Russia has repeatedly stressed that it is seeking only a “sustainable just peace,” rather than a ceasefire. From Moscow’s perspective, a truce would only give Ukraine time to regroup, rearm, and prepare for another round of fighting. For Kyiv, under the current circumstances, an energy ceasefire alone, without a broader agreement addressing other aspects of the conflict, does not seem particularly useful either.
Refinery Strikes Have Turned Russia Into a Fuel Importer
Although Russia continues to strike Ukrainian power plants daily, Kyiv has also managed to inflict significant damage on Russia’s energy sector. Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries have contributed to fuel shortages, with queues at gas stations across the country becoming commonplace and forcing Moscow to suspend fuel exports. Russia, despite its enormous energy resources, is now forced to import fuel not only from neighboring Kazakhstan and Belarus, but also from India.
Consequently, energy ties between Moscow and New Delhi are no longer one-sided: while Russia continues to supply crude oil to India, it also imports refined petroleum products from its South Asian partner. Even though the world’s most populous country benefits from these trade arrangements, it also has an interest in ending the war through diplomacy and reducing the risks to the global economy.
India’s economic position also shapes its approach to the conflict. With the IMF raising its GDP growth forecast for the country to 7 percent, New Delhi has a clear interest in limiting the economic fallout of a prolonged war. Disruptions to energy supplies, maritime trade, and food markets carry costs that extend well beyond Europe, making a ceasefire a matter of economic interest as much as diplomacy.
The logic is simple: the longer the war continues, the greater the risk of instability in energy markets, disruptions to trade routes, and rising economic costs worldwide. A ceasefire could help stabilize oil prices, keep Black Sea shipping moving, and ease these pressures on countries around the world.
Four Mediators, Four Motives
Though he is fully aware of the war’s global repercussions, the primary concern of the United States under President Trump seems to be the impact of rising fuel prices on the domestic economy. Ahead of the upcoming midterm elections, he needs at least a temporary drop in fuel prices, prompting him to seek a diesel deal with Moscow and pressure Ukraine to halt strikes on Russian oil refineries.
Turkey, for its part, is pushing for a ceasefire in the Black Sea, as an end to strikes on ships and tankers could bring economic benefits to Ankara. It is no secret that Turkey was among the major beneficiaries of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, also known as the Grain Deal, which was brokered in Istanbul in the summer of 2022. The agreement strengthened Ankara’s position as a regional grain transit hub, created economic opportunities for its shipping and port sectors, and enhanced its diplomatic influence in the Black Sea region.
For Egypt, the main concern is food security. As one of the world’s largest wheat importers, the North African state depends heavily on grain from the Black Sea region, including Ukraine. Continued attacks on commercial shipping and port infrastructure threaten these imports, while rising transport costs make grain more expensive. A potential ceasefire could help keep shipments moving and reduce pressure on domestic food prices.
India, however, seems to be looking at the bigger picture. Its three-part ceasefire proposal is not limited to protecting its own economic interests but also seeks to reduce the wider effects of the war on energy markets, food supplies, and international trade. There is also a diplomatic benefit for New Delhi. By engaging with both Moscow and Kyiv, India has a chance to strengthen its international standing and position itself as a potential mediator. Its relations with both sides could help it keep communication open, even if reaching an agreement remains difficult.
The problem, however, is that neither Moscow nor Kyiv is particularly eager to stabilize the situation, as both sides remain far from achieving their strategic goals. Yet the longer the war continues, the greater its economic consequences for the rest of the world.
Although a limited truce would not end the conflict, it could ease global economic pressures by protecting energy infrastructure, ports, and commercial shipping. For India and other countries pushing for a ceasefire, the immediate challenge is to convince Russia and Ukraine that even a partial halt to the fighting is in their interests.