The conflict between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has continued to ramp up, with each side trading tit-for-tat attacks, and further escalation in the coming days and weeks becoming more likely. Earlier this week, Saudi forces struck the Yemen Petroleum Company’s Sabaha fuel depot. The Houthis responded by attacking Saudi Aramco headquarters in Dhahran. The timing has been auspicious, especially since Saudi Arabia was hosting a World Petroleum Congress event this week. According to the Financial Times, the heads of several major energy companies, including ExxonMobil, Chevron, BP, Shell, and TotalEnergies, pulled out of the event.
With recent attacks against Saudi Arabia —including an attack against King Khalid Airport in the capital of Riyadh, killing more than a dozen people and injuring hundreds more — the Saudis announced that the airport would remain closed until at least October 17. By attacking airports, the Houthis understand that the strikes can be framed as revenge or retribution for the Saudi blockade and an attack by the Saudi-backed Yemeni government on Sanaa airport in mid-July. Second, the strikes are embarrassing for Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman (MBS), who seems to be in over his head in attempting to manage this conflict. Saudi Arabia is suffering reputational and economic damage, in addition to the lives lost during some of these attacks.
The airports are soft targets, so they are not difficult for the Houthis to hit, and these attacks also cause massive chaos for the Saudis to deal with. By demonstrating precision in their attacks on airports, the Houthis are also reinforcing their capabilities, which could extend to the targeting of power plants, desalination plants, or other high-value infrastructure targets, including data centers. In addition to intimidating the Saudis, the Houthis are hoping that these attacks scare off tourists and frighten investors, making the economic pain for Riyadh more palpable. Besides attacking the airports, the Houthis have, in recent months, targeted the East-West oil pipeline and also seized territory along Yemen’s Red Sea coast, including the port of Mokha and Dhubabi, as well as several strategically positioned islands such as Perim. The militants have also targeted Saudi ships attempting to transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, making the energy crunch even more dire. Improved proficiency with both anti-ship missiles and drone boats has transformed the Houthis into an even more fearsome maritime adversary.
Saudi Arabia has few good options — escalation comes with costs and offers no clear or immediate off-ramps, while capitulation will make the Kingdom appear weak and will only invite further aggression from Iran and its proxy forces in the region. Containment and offering concessions to the Houthis have failed, but so too has kinetic force. As reported by the Wall Street Journal, MBS is shuttling between palaces outfitted with bunkers, while traveling with an elite security team to keep him safe. The image of the Saudi leader in hiding is unlikely to project strength, nor are his repeated attempts to seek assistance. MBS is seeking help from allies, including the U.S., the UK, and France, as well as Pakistan and Türkiye. The Saudis are likely to escalate in the short term, perhaps to inflict pain on the Houthis and secure greater leverage before entering any talks or negotiations down the line. The best bet for a negotiated settlement is tied to a broader resolution of the U.S. war with Iran, where Tehran would need to pressure the Houthis to curtail attacks.
It remains unclear whether President Trump will come to MBS’s rescue. Washington is weary of further broadening the war and is already constrained in terms of interceptors and munitions. Trump commented that the Houthis were “behaving very badly,” but beyond that admonition, the President has not signaled whether Washington would back up Saudi Arabia with airpower. The Houthis threatened the United States and warned Trump not to get involved. The U.S. political climate is also important to consider, with mid-term elections just around the corner and a U.S. population that remains opposed to the war in Iran in large numbers. Trump also likely has doubts about MBS as commander-in-chief and the Saudi armed forces’ willingness to follow through on taking the fight to the Houthis.
The Saudi-backed Yemeni government forces are also inherently weak, divided, and suffering from low morale within their ranks. Meanwhile, the Houthis are fighting as though they have little to lose, and the group’s incremental, salami-slicing tactics have successfully exposed Riyadh’s lack of military strategy. Moreover, as Yemen expert Nadwa al-Dawsari recently wrote in Lawfare, the Houthis “have built an extensive system of ideological and military mobilization” within areas under their control in the country. The fact that the Houthis have withstood bombing campaigns by the U.S., UK, and Israel has reinforced a sense of invincibility within the group, which is a designated foreign terrorist organization, albeit one with which the Trump administration is openly speaking as the conflict drags on.
The wider regional conflict is key to ending the standoff between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, but it’s also the conflict that is subject to the most unpredictability and wild cards, including possible Israeli strikes ahead of Israel’s election later this month. There are so many states and non-state actors involved, and many analysts have little confidence that a deal will get done anytime soon, especially as Iran perceives that it has leverage over Trump and consistently boasts of its high threshold for pain. Russia has provided targeting intelligence for Houthi missile and drone strikes, while dual-use electronic and industrial components used in Houthi weaponry flow unfettered from China.
Not only is Tehran well-positioned to wield strategic patience, but its proxies are in it for the long haul too. In what many perceived as a slight, the Iranians offered to mediate between the Houthis and Saudi Arabia. The Houthis are now capable of producing weapons and munitions domestically, making them less dependent on external support and foreign largesse. The Houthis still rely on Iran for training and expertise, especially with more sophisticated weaponry, including cruise and ballistic missiles. The artificial intelligence company Anthropic has also acknowledged that the Houthis have used AI to improve the sophistication of its missile inventory.
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