- In mid-2026, Syria's transition from war to peace remains unfinished business. It has achieved notable international successes, but it also requires a course correction if durable national recovery is to be ensured.
- Economic policy is the Achilles’ heel of the interim government. Macroeconomic indicators have stabilised, but improvements at household and enterprise level remain invisible. Negative effects of market and trade liberalization are substantial.
- The ex-HTS leaders that dominate the interim government risk turning transitional justice in a biased and sectarian affair if they do not develop a more creative approach to their double bind. Its absence allows grievances to fester and fear to deepen.
- While the legitimacy of the interim government is limited, it has managed to consolidate executive authority and impose control over much of the country. This can be a basis for benign authoritarian rule, but several key indicators point in the opposite direction.
- EU Member States, the Netherlands included, should consider a mixed strategy that increases pressure on the Syrian government, as well as offer practical support. Useful foci include the UN’s ‘International, Impartial and Independent Mechanism against War Crimes’ and partnership with Turkey, as well as supporting industrial/agricultural revival, decentralization, rights-focused organisations, and political party law development.
About 17 months of Syria’s 60-month transition period have passed. What can reasonably be expected of its interim government and the country’s recovery, given decades of authoritarian rule, over a decade of civil war, and the victory of a rebel group with roots in an intolerant doctrine?
Assessing the state of Syria’s transition in mid-2026 requires, first, an analysis of the country’s emergent political settlement. Second, it demands an examination of the interim government’s key initiatives and measures in major policy domains to date.
Regarding the emergent political settlement, the interim government constitutes Syria’s primary network of power and rule today. The core of the interim government consists of ex-HTS military and civilian leaders from northern Idlib.
Regarding major initiatives and measures in policy domains key to the transition, the interim government’s greatest successes lie in foreign affairs. The swift international rehabilitation of Syria, the early lifting of sanctions and promises of major foreign investment are achievements.
There are, however, course corrections to be considered to increase the likelihood of Syria's transition leading to a durable recovery. Based on the report's analysis, four course corrections should be considered.