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Crisis Group

1 October 2026

Five Energy Market Factors That Could Tip the Scales in the Middle East War

By pfranz

Oil, gas and fuel prices are central to the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, with Washington striving to lower them and Tehran to keep them high. With both sides determined to prevail, five market-shaping developments in particular could affect whether fighting ramps up or de-escalates.

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All sourcesAxios50Bellingcat10Brookings51CSIS10Carnegie Endowment31Chatham House-Clingendael10Council on Foreign Relations24Crisis Group10ECFR100Geopolitical Monitor10Modern War Institute50Politico-RAND20SIPRI10The Intel Lab-The Soufan Center10