On Sunday, five British nationals from London were arrested for their involvement in an alleged plot against the Royal Air Force (RAF) Fairford Base located on the border between Gloucestershire and Wiltshire. The suspects were spotted in hoods and masks operating three white vans — at least one falsely branded with a British fuel company […] The post A Potential Terrorist Plot Against a British Airbase Shows the Continued Threat of Hybrid Warfare appeared first on The Soufan Center .
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US midterms polls: Are Democrats winning or is Trump losing? Expert comment thilton.drupal 28 September 2026 Polls suggest Democrats will take control of the House of Representatives as American voters are dissatisfied with President Trump and his policies. Americans go to the polls on 3 November to elect a third of the US Senate and all the House of Representatives. The Republicans currently have majorities in both chambers of Congress. But their prospects of retaining this control look increasingly dire. The Republicans’ chances have been dragged down by President Donald Trump’s near-record low public approval rating and voter dissatisfaction with his handling of the Iran war and the economy, among other things. Democrats appear poised to take advantage, with most pundits suggesting they will retake control of at least the House of Representatives. But the race is not over yet. In the end, the key factor will likely be turnout, which is historically lower in midterms than presidential elections. Whichever party better mobilizes their voters to turn up on election day will ultimately determine the outcome. Democrats are strong favourites At this point, this election is the Democratic Party’s to lose. Republicans currently hold a narrow majority in the 435-seat House of Representatives. To control the House, which gives a party the ability to name chairmen of committees and set the legislative agenda, the Democrats will need to win at least 218 seats. They currently have 212 seats. Due to polarization and redistricting, most seats are highly unlikely to change party. Electi
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Israel’s election: What will it mean for neighbours and allies? 8 October 2026 — 17:00 TO 18:15 BST Anonymous (not verified) 28 September 2026 Chatham House and Online Hear from experts on the foreign policy choices facing Israel’s next government. Hear from experts on the foreign policy choices facing Israel’s next government. Israel’s upcoming election follows three years of war and a marked decline in international support. Leading candidates to be prime minister offer little in terms of rethinking Israeli foreign policy and all reject Palestinian statehood. The election outcome could have profound consequences for the Palestinians and Israel’s relations with neighbouring states and international partners. This event discusses: What is at stake for Palestinians and regional states in Israel’s election? Would a change of government alter relations with the UK, US and Europe? How do leading candidates view relations with Lebanon, Syria and Turkey? How might Israel’s next government approach Iran? Could a new government change Israel’s approach to the Israeli–Palestinian conflict? Can Israel’s next government rebuild international public support?
As European leaders hobnob with their counterparts at the 81st session of the United Nations General Assembly, they must think carefully about how to navigate a fast-changing multilateral landscape. The old world belonged to rule-makers and institution-builders, but the current one favours those who can improvise
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The Plaza Accord was not an externally imposed punishment of Japan but part of a broader restructuring that Japanese economists and policymakers themselves recognized was necessary. Its effects were undermined, however, when Tokyo responded to the resulting slowdown with policies that exacerbated investment, credit expansion, and the very imbalances the adjustment was intended to resolve.
New energy and trade routes could bypass Hormuz and change the Middle East. But major challenges remain Expert comment thilton.drupal 25 September 2026 The Strait of Hormuz crisis is accelerating a wider reordering of the region, as Iraq, Syria and Lebanon plan new oil pipelines and transport corridors. But whether they can seize the opportunity to diversify will ultimately depend on wider reforms. The war on Iran and the resulting disruption to the Strait of Hormuz has exposed the vulnerability of existing trade and energy routes and unsettled the old balance of power across the Middle East. In this context, Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are seeking to capitalize on their position between Europe and the Gulf and improve their connectivity via oil and gas pipelines, roads, railways and digital corridors. Once central to an Iranian regional order, all three governments are now aiming to achieve greater sovereignty by diversifying their economic ties, a shift supported by the Trump administration. Yet they are attempting to do so while facing foreign occupations and military action, and while also confronting domestic endemic corruption and fragmented political systems that empower armed groups. Whether they can seize this opportunity to become more connected – and more sovereign – will therefore depend not only on the infrastructure they build, but on whether they can reform their states to govern it. Changing energy routes The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has caused severe disruption to regional energy flows, including from Iraq. Pre-war, Iraq was exporting around 3.
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China rising, America in decline? The Trump-Xi summit Audio sseth.drupal@c… 25 September 2026 In this week’s episode of Independent Thinking, our experts discuss the Trump-Xi summit in Washington and the increasing competition between the two superpowers. President Donald Trump welcomes Xi Jinping to Washington with the US-China dynamic in a moment of historic flux. China is rising economically and militarily, while the US is mired in the Iran war, alienating allies and pursuing Trump’s unpredictable trade and tariff disputes. What do the two leaders want from this meeting, and will they get it? Can they reconcile their differing economic powers, the competition for critical minerals, and their radically contrasting visions for artificial intelligence. And in the longer term: who will dominate the 21st century? Does Xi really want to retake Taiwan for China before his time in power ends? Or is the US-Chinese dynamic more complex and perhaps less alarming? To unpick these threads Bronwen Maddox is joined by three experts from Chatham House’s Asia-Pacific Programme: programme director Ben Bland, senior research fellow Dr Yu Jie and associate fellow Dr Bill Hayton. About Independent Thinking Independent Thinking is a weekly international affairs podcast hosted by our director Bronwen Maddox, in conversation with leading policymakers, journalists and Chatham House experts providing insight on the latest international issues. More ways to listen: Apple Podcasts and Spotify . Explore our other Chatham House podcasts .
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During a year on the staff of the ROK/US Combined Forces Command in 2023, I never asked an American counterpart the question behind much of our work: Would the United […]
Palestine, Jordan and Egypt ambassadors: On the future of Palestine 5 October 2026 — 13:30 TO 14:45 BST Anonymous (not verified) 24 September 2026 Chatham House Join this fascinating discussion as three Middle East ambassadors to the UK discuss reconstruction, security, President Trump’s Board of Peace, and more. Join this fascinating discussion as three Mideast ambassadors to the UK discuss reconstruction, security, President Trump’s Board of Peace, and more. In August 2026, eight Arab and Islamic countries issued a statement reiterating their support for an independent, sovereign Palestinian state. The group condemned Israeli measures aimed at displacing Palestinians from the Gaza Strip, as well as Israel’s continued resistance to implementing President Trump’s plan to end the war in Gaza. This event will bring together ambassadors from states in the Middle East to discuss developments in Palestine. They will also talk about the role of regional states – and the UK - in furthering dialogue, peace and reconstruction. This event discusses: How are Arab states supporting peace, security, and reconstruction in Palestine? What are the immediate and medium-term priorities? What are states’ perspectives towards the Board of Peace, and President Trump’s Peace Plan? What are key takeaways from UNGA concerning regional and global actors’ positions towards Israel and Palestine? Where do opportunities lie for achieving long-term peace? What role do external actors, including the UK and EU, have in supporting Palestine’s future? There will be a 30-minute coffee reception following the
In this episode with host Dr. Charlie Faint, retired Colonel Pat Howell reflects on a career that took him from the 82nd Airborne Division and conventional engineer units to the […]
The increasing use of drones on the modern battlefield has sparked a great debate about their impact on the ever-changing character of warfare. Whether framed as evolutionary drivers of that […]
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The 2025 National Security Strategy called for a “military capable of denying aggression anywhere in the First Island Chain.” During 2026, MWI focused its research efforts on understanding how the […]
Houthi advances now threaten Saudi Arabia’s most viable oil-export route. Europeans should strengthen Riyadh’s maritime and air defences, and mobilise a wider diplomatic coalition to end the US-Iran war driving the escalation
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Israel's strategy in Gaza is only keeping Hamas in power: deterred, but not replaced, with no real alternative given a chance. A different outcome calls for a different approach.
