North America

Dems' red-state showings raise prospect of a bigger 2028 map

Data: RealClearPolitics , American Presidency Project ; Note: Nebraska's Senate race is between a Republican and an independent; Chart: Erin Davis/Axios Move over Wisconsin and Arizona. With Democrats making Republicans sweat in a host of red-state Senate races , a new batch of swing states may be emerging. Why it matters: Some of the closest Senate races are in Nebraska, Ohio, Texas, Iowa and even Kansas. Sure, this could be a blip — or a reminder that it's a 50-50 moody nation, even in a bunch of red states. The conditions that helped Barack Obama carry conservative states like Indiana and North Carolina in 2008 — an unpopular war, a bruising economy, an electorate hungry for change — could resonate again in 2028. State of play: Democratic and Republican Senate candidates are running margin-of-error races in red states that not long ago were thought to be forbidding, or even a wasted effort, to many Democrats. The Senate races in Kansas and Ohio are tied. So is Nebraska, where independent Dan Osborn is trying to knock off Sen. Pete Ricketts. Democrat James Talarico has consistently led polls in Texas, though that race appears to be tightening as money pours into the state on behalf of Republican Ken Paxton. Alaska is also a toss-up. President Trump won all these states by double digits in 2024. Zoom in: Republican operatives told Axios they're far from convinced that what's happening now will create a new slate of swing states in the 2028 race for the White House. They see the current campaign as more of a one-off — a combination of dismay with Trump, high prices and unin

Is China dynamic or dysfunctional?

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Scoop: Top Trump operative enlisted to rescue Kansas senator's campaign

A top Trump political operative has been tapped to help boost Kansas Sen. Roger Marshall 's campaign in the weeks before the Nov. 3 election , the latest sign of how Republicans are scrambling to defend the red-state seat. Why it matters: The hiring of veteran strategist Chris Grant reflects the GOP's growing anxiety over Kansas' Senate race . Marshall is running neck and neck with Democrat Adam Hamilton in a state President Trump won by 16 points in 2024. Republicans fear losing Kansas could be a domino in costing them their Senate majority . Driving the news: GOP operatives have become increasingly frustrated with Marshall's reelection campaign, which they believe hasn't been aggressive enough at a time when soaring fuel prices have particularly hurt farmers in Kansas and elsewhere in the Midwest. Grant, who helped lead the main pro-Trump super PAC in 2024 and has remained involved in Trump's political operation, will be a senior adviser to Marshall and help guide strategy in the final three weeks. Grant also worked on Marshall's 2020 Senate campaign. What they're saying: "Chris is an absolute pro who has been a longtime friend to Team Marshall. Having him help land the plane these last three weeks is a no brainer," Brent Robertson, Marshall's chief of staff, told Axios. Zoom in: Two GOP outside groups — the Senate Leadership Fund and Club for Growth — are pouring millions into the Kansas race. SLF, the principal super PAC aligned with Senate GOP leadership, is spending $14 million in Kansas after shifting resources from the Senate race in North Carolina, where Democratic

Feds search Rep. Ilhan Omar's home in immigration probe

Federal agents conducted a pre-dawn search Monday at the Washington home of Rep. Ilhan Omar (D-Minn.) as part of an ongoing immigration probe, a DOJ spokesperson confirmed to Axios. Why it matters: Searching Omar's home marks a substantial escalation of the Trump administration's fight with the outspoken progressive, who has condemned the immigration crackdown in her state. It's also an unusual move against a candidate less than a month before an election , something the Justice Department has typically avoided . The latest: President Trump said authorities are looking at Omar "very carefully" when asked whether he knew about the search of her home in advance. "I've always found her to be totally crooked personally, but that has nothing to do with me," Trump said . "I think she's a terrible person. She comes from a country that is a non-country." What they're saying: "I'm ok. Make no mistake: this is an attempt to target political enemies and weaponize federal law enforcement," Omar said in a Monday afternoon post to X. "For ten years, Trump has targeted me with baseless lies and smear campaigns. This is just the latest escalation in his campaign of political intimidation. I will not be silenced." Driving the news: Fox News first reported that Homeland Security Investigations agents conducted the search, citing a Justice Department statement. A DOJ spokesperson confirmed to Axios that DHS agents "executed a judicially authorized search warrant secured by the Department of Justice" as part of an ongoing federal criminal investigation. DHS referred Axios to the DOJ. The other

What the Trump administration’s recent guidance on school discipline gets wrong

Archbishop of the US military says Catholic soldiers should not serve on firing squad

The archbishop described the planned execution of a gunman who killed 13 people on a military base as contrary to the teachings of the church.

Trump's Russia deal leaves GOP candidates with a Putin problem

Republicans already saddled with Trump's unpopular policies in the midterms now face another awkward choice: whether to back his diesel deal with a dictator many of them despise. Why it matters: The agreement President Trump struck with Russian President Vladimir Putin Friday is designed to ease the cost of living for U.S. consumers. But Republicans who pleaded for help with fuel prices now face a fresh dispute over Russia, with energy analysts questioning whether the deal will deliver the relief Trump is promising. The big picture: With three weeks until Election Day, Republicans are trying to answer voter anger while keeping up with a president whose proposed fixes keep becoming political liabilities of their own. Trump's decision to lock arms with Putin adds another complication. Driving the news: Weeks after signing a sweeping Russia sanctions law, Trump announced Friday that Russia would supply diesel to U.S. and global markets. The next day, Trump blamed Ukraine for soaring diesel prices and called for President Volodymyr Zelensky to be replaced, even as Russia continued attacking Ukrainian cities. Republicans who just supported squeezing Moscow have three options in the final sprint for control of Congress: defend Trump's reversal, break with him or stay quiet. Zoom out: The diesel deal packs some of the GOP's biggest liabilities into one decision: the Iran war's economic fallout, the party's split over Russia and a president determined to make the election about himself. The deal also reverses Trump's own pressure campaign. Last year, he slapped an extra 25% tariff

Why U.S. Borrowing Costs Keep Climbing Despite Treasury’s Efforts

Four CFR experts explain why Treasury’s market interventions haven’t lowered bond yields, how the sell-off is spreading abroad, and how AI spending and higher oil prices are affecting the bond market.

Water has emerged as a key issue for Arizona voters ahead of US midterms – governments should take note

Water has emerged as a key issue for Arizona voters ahead of US midterms – governments should take note Expert comment LToremark 12 October 2026 The case of Arizona shows that governments must stop treating water as merely an environmental issue. US President Donald Trump may dismiss the threat posed by climate change, but its consequences are becoming harder for US voters to ignore. Take Arizona, for example, where water has emerged as an unusually prominent issue ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. Recent polling found that long-term water supplies was the top concern for Arizona voters, after federal cuts to the state’s water supply from the drought-stricken Colorado River. Water has consequently become a prominent issue in Democratic Governor Katie Hobbs’ re-election campaign, with opponents accusing her of mismanaging Arizona’s water supply in an effort to undermine her bid for a second term. Water is no longer just an environmental issue Arizona is an extreme example, but the underlying dynamic is much broader. Water is fundamental not only to drinking and sanitation, but to almost every aspect of an economy. In Arizona, it underpins agriculture and urban development, while also supporting industries and amenities that can seem particularly incongruous in a desert environment, such as golf courses . Now a new source of demand is emerging: data centres, driven by the rapid growth of cloud computing and artificial intelligence. The Phoenix metropolitan area ranks second in North America for proposed data-centre development, raising questions about the impact of these e

Business faces a more interventionist Washington post-midterms

Both parties will be pressured to intervene more in markets after the midterms as economic frustration animates the new Congress, according to an FGS Global sketch of 2027 Washington scenarios, shared first with Axios. Why it matters: In a Trump-dominated Washington, Congress ceded much of its power and relevance. That'll change three weeks from Tuesday if Democrats win the House, as expected, and perhaps the Senate in the midterms. The new analysis by FGS , a worldwide strategic leadership advisory with huge clients, is a sequel to a popular FGS report that Jim VandeHei and I used as the basis for a series of popular "Behind the Curtain" columns before the 2024 elections. FGS bills "Alternative Futures: Beyond November" as a framework for processing the epic battles ahead: how power will get used, how both parties will evolve, and how business leaders can navigate the uncertainty. "The 2026 midterms will begin — not end — a 27-month period of unusually high strategic uncertainty," the report says. Zoom in: Michael Feldman — FGS partner and co-chairman, North America — tells me that for Republicans, "intervention may mean tariffs, industrial policy, domestic manufacturing incentives, and other measures aimed at strengthening U.S. production capacity, economic security, and competitiveness." "For Democrats, intervention may mean affordability policies, labor protections, antitrust enforcement, plus regulation designed to reduce costs, curb concentrated corporate power and address inequality." "Everyone is focused on who controls Congress," Feldman added. "We think the more i

Trump privately expresses doubts about livestreaming execution

President Trump has privately shared misgivings about livestreaming the firing-squad execution of a former Army major who murdered 13 people at Fort Hood in Texas, according to four people who have spoken with the president. Why it matters: Trump has been deluged with "negative input" about the idea from a bipartisan chorus of lawmakers as well as advisers inside and outside of his White House, a senior administration official said. A livestream of former Army Maj. Nidal Hasan's execution on Dec. 3 "might not happen," Trump told one confidant, who doesn't work in the administration and shared the comment with Axios. "He didn't sound particularly enthusiastic" about webcasting the execution, the source said. "That's why he's calling around, doing the Trump thing, asking people what they think." Zoom in: Hasan faces a firing squad at Fort Hood, where he went on his murderous shooting rampage 17 years ago. He would be the first person in the U.S. whose execution would be livestreamed. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth announced the norm-shattering idea Thursday on Real America's Voice. "We'll make sure that people are able to watch it — that it's public — because people need to understand that there's serious consequences for these types of things," Hegseth said. Zoom out: The idea was roundly condemned domestically and internationally . In the ensuing days, Trump started to publicly shift his positions: At first, Trump was full-throated in his support. "Absolutely, I approve," Trump told reporters early Friday evening. Later that night, Trump was more nuanced : "They want to do

CFR Member Len Blavatnik Gifts $15 Million to Strengthen the Blavatnik Internship Program

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is pleased to announce a transformative $15 million gift from the Blavatnik Family Foundation to strengthen and expand the Blavatnik Internship Program. Including both endowment and current-use support, this generous commitment more than doubles the foundation’s original investment in the program and builds on its remarkable success. “We hope […]

How I Got My Career in Foreign Policy: Rebecca Blumenstein

NBC President of Editorial Rebecca Blumenstein spoke to CFR about the experiences, risks, and mentors that have shaped her career, from small-town newsrooms to some of the country’s most influential news organizations.

Two U.S. professors win Nobel prize in economics

Stanford University's Robert E. Hall and Columbia University's Michael Woodford won the Nobel Prize in economics for research on how policymakers can stabilize economies , the Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences said on Monday. Why it matters: Their work helped shape how central banks set interest rates and communicate policy. The win comes as those institutions fight energy-driven inflation and risks to economic growth. Zoom out: For decades, policymakers relied on economic models that linked higher inflation with lower unemployment. But that framework broke down during the 1970s stagflation when both prices and joblessness surged at the same time. "The solution by Robert Hall and Michael Woodford was to build a new framework ground up," Timo Boppart, a member of the Nobel economics prize committee, said on Monday. What they're saying: Woodford, who called into Monday's press conference hosted by the committee, said he was "elated" by the win. " It's a tremendous honor. It's a surprise — but I'm feeling very good about it," Woodford said. The intrigue : Asked by a reporter about the threat to the global economy, Woodford said the Middle East conflict has disrupted energy markets and driven price changes with consequences far beyond the region. He pointed to the 2008 financial crisis as a key test of his research, when central banks cut interest rates to near zero but struggled to revive economic activity. His framework helped explain how other tools, including forward guidance and asset purchases, could support the economy. Zoom in: In research culminating in a landmark 2003

How Do You Pick a Good General?

The US military is set to change how it selects general and flag officers. Going forward, it will incorporate a “Joint Warfighter Evaluation (JWE)” into the selection process. Each service […]

Judge halts Trump administration's taxpayer-funded ads

A federal judge on Sunday ordered the Trump administration to immediately halt taxpayer-funded ads featuring President Trump. Why it matters: The ruling temporarily blocks the ads weeks before November's midterm elections as multiple lawsuits challenging the Trump administration's use of taxpayer money play out in court. Sunday's ruling stems from a suit filed in the Southern District of New York by Washington, D.C.-based watchdog Common Cause, non-profit Democracy Forward and other plaintiffs. A similar lawsuit , filed by the Democratic National Committee, was filed in D.C. federal court earlier this month. The big picture: The Trump administration maintains that the ads are public service announcements and that previous Republican and Democratic administrations have used taxpayer-funded advertising to promote government policies. Trump pledged to pay for the ads himself after both lawsuits were filed, though the White House told Axios there were no plans to reimburse the government for millions already spent on the ads. Driving the news: The plaintiffs in the New York lawsuit allege that the Trump administration exceeded congressional authorization and violated restrictions on publicity and propaganda. In a brief order , U.S. District Judge Jennifer Rochon found that a motion filed by the coalition was "not moot." She found they had "demonstrated that they are likely to succeed on the merits, will suffer irreparable harm in the absence of an injunction, the balance of the equities tips in their favor, and an injunction serves the public interest," according to the order.

Buttigieg gambles on a different path for 2028

Pete Buttigieg has been able to campaign for Democrats across the country more than many of his potential 2028 rivals this past year. One reason: He doesn't have a job. That's by choice. Buttigieg said no when top Democrats urged him to run for governor or the U.S. Senate in Michigan this year. Why it matters: That decision is a gamble for Buttigieg's presidential ambitions. He's been able to build a national network over the last two years but hasn't added to his relatively thin resume as a former mayor of South Bend, Ind., and Joe Biden's transportation secretary . Buttigieg, 44, became a national political figure without following the typical path. He ran for president in 2020 as a small-town mayor and won the Iowa caucus by offering an optimistic vision and impressing voters with his communication skills — including in hostile environments. Driving the news: In early 2025, Democratic lawmakers and strategists including New York Sen. Chuck Schumer and former Michigan Sen. Debbie Stabenow urged Buttigieg — who had moved to Michigan — to run for office in his new state. Winning such an office, they argued, would help Buttigieg build his resume for a future White House run and give him a chance to distance himself from the unpopular Biden administration. Buttigieg passed, citing both a desire to stay home more with his husband and young twins, and figuring that he could still get his message out without being in the Senate. Instead, he set about building a larger national network among Democrats — particularly with Black voters in the South, where he had struggled in the 20

Trump bears down on Zelensky as Russia keeps up attacks on Ukraine

President Trump's announcement Sunday about an "energy ceasefire" between Russia and Ukraine referred to a potential deal that includes each side stopping attacks on oil refineries — and he expects Volodymyr Zelensky to abide by it, a White House official said. The official said if attacks on oil refineries cease, a deal to stop hitting power plants and energy grids could come next. Why it matters: Trump appears to be singlehandedly trying to will a partial ceasefire into existence. But for now Russia hasn't accepted any kind of ceasefire — and Ukraine wants one that forbids attacks on power plants. Reality check: The "refinery for refinery" proposal, as the official dubbed it, is lopsided. A Ukrainian official told Axios that the country has a single oil refinery which the Russians have attacked multiple times and isn't fully functional. Russia, by contrast, has a vast network of refineries. "We import diesel and gas. What we need is for the Russians to stop attacking our electricity grid," the Ukrainian official said. "The Russians are thinking about" it, the White House official said. "We will know soon if they are ready." Case in point: Hours after Trump's announcement, Russia conducted strikes on power plants in Ukraine, according to Ukrainian media. What he said: Trump's Truth Social post sounded at first like a major breakthrough. "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" he wrote. It appears much more tenuous than that. Zelensky said the announced ceasefire "was news for me

Trump claims Russia and Ukraine agree to energy ceasefire

President Trump claimed Sunday that Russia and Ukraine agreed to an " energy ceasefire " and will halt attacks on each other's energy facilities. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky tells Axios the announcement "was news for me. But if Russians agree to an energy ceasefire, Ukraine will agree." Why it matters: An " energy ceasefire" would be a dramatic diplomatic breakthrough ahead of the winter. It remains unclear if Russia indeed agreed to stop the strikes. Trump made a similar announcement last month, but neither party confirmed that there was a deal. Both Russia and Ukraine continued attacking energy infrastructure. What they're saying: "Effective immediately, there is an ENERGY CEASEFIRE in the War between Russia and Ukraine. Both parties have agreed. Do not break it!" Trump wrote on Truth Social. In a short interview after Trump's announcement, Zelensky told Axios, "If President Trump negotiated it with Putin, please tell us when the ceasefire begins. We are ready, and we will accept it." Catch up quick: The announcement follows days of escalating tensions between Trump and Zelensky over Ukraine's attacks on Russian oil refineries. On Friday, Trump announced a deal to ease sanctions on Russian diesel exports in an effort to lower soaring fuel prices, infuriating Ukraine. On Saturday, Trump called for Ukraine to replace Zelensky , accusing him of refusing opportunities to end the war. Zelensky responded Sunday on ABC's "This Week," saying Ukraine would hold elections if Russia agreed to a 60-day ceasefire. He also said Ukraine was prepared to stop attacking Russian